High-End L.A. Squatters

Hat tip to Bode for sending this in – squatter story on steroids near LeBron’s house:

Read the full artcile here:

https://www.curbed.com/article/squatters-rights-california-beverly-hills-los-angeles.html

Plus this, also sent by Bode:

On a winter morning in Woodland Hills, the “Squatter Hunter” slowly approaches a posh two-story home dressed in all black, armed with a Glock 26 pistol, stun gun, pepper spray and baton. His body camera is on. His two-man squad lurks behind him.

They’ve spent four days in surveillance, learning the habits of the man squatting inside. They’ve waited for him to leave, but he never does. So they knock on the front door, and when the occupant opens it, they barge inside.

Their plan: live with the squatter. Dirty the bathroom. Take the best spot on the couch. Commandeer the TV remote. Blast music. Drink his coffee. Eat his Cheetos.

Out-squat him. And film it all for YouTube.

As the body camera footage shows, the team starts installing Ring cameras throughout the home to document every interaction. The Squatter Hunter, Flash Shelton, hands the man a lease with Shelton’s name on it.

“You’re an intruder in my house now,” he says.

Shelton explains that the man is there illegally, and the team is not going anywhere until he leaves. The squatter was out before they could even share breakfast together.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-12/out-squatted-handyman-flash-shelton-will-squat-with-you-squatters-until-they-leave

Inventory Watch

The active inventory is increasing!

We’ve been hoping to identify the perfect amount of additional homes for sale that would create more sales without scaring buyers back to the sidelines with shock and awe. I have guessed that the demand would digest a 10% to 15% increase, and maybe 20% without much difficulty. Now the number of active listings are 34% above last year, and the pendings have been flat for the last couple of weeks.

Likely outcomes:

  • Buyers wait longer, hoping it will be better/different later.
  • Sales slow.
  • The prime selling season ends sooner than expected.

Thankfully, the sellers aren’t going to give them away so it will feel like a standoff. Only the buyers and sellers with high motivations will dare to transact when the temptation to wait longer is getting stronger.

If it gets better/different later, it won’t be by much. There might be fewer homes selling over list, and more deals for the buyers who can dig them out.

But that’s it.

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The 10 Best Affordable Places to Retire

A potential retirement spot’s cost of living is often an important consideration for retirees living on a fixed income. While the cost of housing is factored into the overall Best Places to Retire ranking, U.S. News breaks out especially affordable places to retire into its own ranking, including housing affordability and price parity, the ability to afford everyday goods and services.

The 10 Best Affordable Places to Retire in the U.S. in 2024:

  1. Youngstown, Ohio.
  2. Hickory, North Carolina.
  3. Springfield, Missouri.
  4. Brownsville, Texas.
  5. Huntington, West Virginia & Ashland, Kentucky-Ohio.
  6. Fort Wayne, Indiana.
  7. Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
  8. Mobile, Alabama.
  9. Toledo, Ohio.
  10. South Bend, Indiana.

NAR Buckles

What a headline! Nowhere in this article does it say that NAR is slashing commissions or that any agents – the people who determine the commissions – have agreed to slash the commissions. The weak, spineless agents who have nothing else to offer will gladly agree to work for less because to them, it beats not working – but consumers suffer when they hire a weak agent.

Nothing will change until consumers realize that the key is to GET GOOD HELP!

There will be only one result from these commission lawsuits. The buyer-agent will be eliminated in the name of ‘saving money’, and home buyers will be forever harmed by not getting any, let alone adequate, representation.

The full NYT article without paywall is HERE.

Nobody from the industry is quoted in the article, and they published the most outrageous quotes they could find.

Excerpts:

Housing experts said the deal, and the expected savings for homeowners, could trigger one of the most significant jolts in the U.S. housing market in 100 years. “This will blow up the market and would force a new business model,” said Norm Miller, a professor emeritus of real estate at the University of San Diego.

The lawsuits argued that N.A.R., and brokerages who required their agents to be members of N.A.R., had violated antitrust laws by mandating that the seller’s agent make an offer of payment to the buyer’s agent, and setting rules that led to an industrywide standard commission. Without that rate essentially guaranteed, agents will now most likely have to lower their commissions as they compete for business.

Economists estimate that commissions could now be reduced by 30 percent, driving down home prices across the board. The opening of a free market for Realtor compensation could mirror the shake-up that occurred in the travel industry with the emergence of online broker sites such as Expedia and Kayak.

“The forces of competition will be let loose,” said Benjamin Brown, co-chairman of the antitrust practice at Cohen Milstein and one of the lawyers who hammered out the settlement. “You’ll see some new pricing models, and some new and creative ways to provide services to home buyers. It’ll be a really exciting time for the industry.”

Under the settlement, tens of millions of home sellers will likely be eligible to receive a small piece of a consolidated class-action payout.

The legal loss struck a blow to the power wielded by the organization, which has long been considered untouchable, insulated by its influence. Founded in 1908, N.A.R. has more than $1 billion in assets, 1.3 million members and a political action committee that pours millions into the coffers of candidates across the political spectrum.

The antitrust division of the Department of Justice is continuing its investigation of N.A.R.’s practices, including the organization’s oversight of databases for home listings, called multiple listing sites or the M.L.S. The sites are owned and operated by N.A.R.’s local affiliates. For decades, the Justice Department has questioned whether these databases stifle competition and whether some N.A.R. rules foster price-fixing on commissions.

Some experts said the shift on commission structure, and the billions of dollars that would flow into the housing market as a result, could spark a recovery in the housing market, going so far as to say that it could be as significant as the 1930s New Deal, a flurry of legislation and executive orders signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt designed to stabilize and rebuild the nation’s economic recovery following the Great Depression.

“This will be a really fundamental shift in how Americans buy, search for, and purchase and sell their housing. It will absolutely transform the real estate industry,” said Max Besbris, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the author of “Upsold,” a book exploring the link between housing prices and the real estate business. “It will prompt one of the biggest transformations to the housing market since New Deal-era regulations were put in place.”

Despite N.A.R.’s turbulence over the last several months, however, there was one constant: their insistence that the lawsuits were flawed and they intended to appeal. With Friday’s settlement agreement, N.A.R. gave up the fight.

The settlement includes many significant rule changes. It bans N.A.R. from establishing any sort of rules that would allow a seller’s agent to set compensation for a buyer’s agent, a practice that critics say has long led to “steering,” in which buyers’ agents direct their clients to pricier homes in a bid to collect a bigger commission check.

And on the online databases used to buy and sell homes, the M.L.S., the settlement requires that any fields displaying broker compensation be eliminated entirely. It also places a blanket ban on the longtime requirement that agents subscribe to multiple listing services in the first place in order to offer or accept compensation for their work.

“The reset button on the sale of homes was hit today,” said Michael Ketchmark, the Kansas City lawyer who represented the home sellers in the main lawsuit. “Anyone who owns a home or dreams of owning one will benefit tremendously from this settlement.”

From the NAR President:

NAR has agreed to put in place a new rule prohibiting offers of compensation on the MLS. Offers of compensation could continue to be an option consumers can pursue off-MLS through negotiation and consultation with real estate professionals. And sellers can offer buyer concessions on an MLS (for example—concessions for buyer closing costs). This change will go into effect in mid-July 2024.

Frenzy Monitor

There are 27% more active listings today than there were last March – without much increase in the number of pendings – though the areas in red above are just as hot as they were last year at this time.

Judging by the number of active (unsold) listings compared to the totals though, sales are more sluggish now than in any year since 2019 when we had 90 actives priced under $1 million (today there are none):

NSDCC Total Listings Jan 1 to Mar 10 and Active Listings in Mid-March

Last year, we didn’t have 335 actives until the end of May!

Sellers will call it normalizing, and buyers will wonder how much more normal will it get!

It’s doubtful that today’s buyers are remembering 2019 though, and if anything they are comparing to last year – and looking for any reason not to buy. If the active count keeps rising, it’s going to look like a glut in a couple of months.

Our New Listing in Terramar!

5450 Los Robles Drive, Carlsbad

3 br/2 ba, 2,700sf

YB: 1976

7,200sf lot

No HOA or Mello-Roos fees

LP = $2,900,000

Open 12-3pm Saturday and Sunday, March 16&17.

Check out this ultimate retro-mod beach house at the quiet end of Los Robles Drive and at the highest point in Terramar, which means ocean and sunset views to the west, and flower-field views to the east! Wide-open floor plan with massive kitchen that has high ceilings and skylight, new light-tan colored hardwood floors, new roof, two fireplaces, bedroom/bath on ground floor, killer primary suite with big walk-in closet, and a fantastic backyard with sauna too! Forget those three-story sterile boxes – come dig this ultra-cool beach classic and enjoy the sights and sounds of the liquid blue enchantress just 100 yards away! Plus you have the private Terramar landing on Shore Drive too (last two photos).


If you prefer a single-level, this is for sale down the street: LINK

SD County Tax Sale

Registration for the San Diego County Tax Sale ends tomorrow! Of the 396 properties that will be auctioned off between March 22-27, this one is the most exciting. The owner had cashed out $1,460,000 back in the heyday of 2007-2008, and they were in foreclosure in 2020 but nothing came of it. They probably still owe enough that they can’t, or won’t get right with it in time to beat the auction:

This one at the top of the hill in Carlsbad has been vacant for years, and would have been the buy of the century because it has no mortgages. But it got redeemed just in time:

https://sdttc.mytaxsale.com/doc/tax_deed/instructions

San Diego is #180

From the U-T:

San Diego County has very little chance of a big housing downturn but also isn’t exactly the most secure market in the nation, according to a new report.

Out of 580 counties, San Diego County was the No. 180 most likely to experience a downturn, said a study from Irvine-based real estate researchers Attom. It used a variety of factors to determine the rankings, including foreclosures, percentage of homes underwater, income-to-cost ratio and local unemployment numbers.

The counties with the biggest chance of a downturn were in inland California and areas around Chicago and New York City. San Joaquin County, home to cities Stockton and Lodi, was considered the most likely spot in the nation for a downturn, Attom said. In that area of California at the end of 2023, it took 65 percent of income to pay for a home, unemployment was among the highest in the state at 6.4 percent, 7.5 percent of buyers were in homes that cost more than they were now worth and other factors.

Broken down by the 20 most-populated counties, San Diego County ranked 12th most likely for a downturn. Kings County, home to Brooklyn, was most likely and Miami-Dade County the least likely.

Here’s how San Diego County compared to the rest of the nation:

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Inventory Watch

The NSDCC houses for sale have had a median list price over $4,000,000 all year.

How is the upper half of the market performing?

While the $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 market has seen continued upward pressure on pricing (click below on more…), the $4,000,000+ list pricing has been correcting – and it’s working!

The average LP/sf has dropped 10% since January, and the number of active (unsold) listings is trickling up. But the average days-on-market is settling down, and the number of pendings look great. There have already been 42 NSDCC sales closed this year over $4,000,000!

Fun fact:

NSDCC Active Listings Priced Over $10,000,000 Today: 46

NSDCC Listings Sold Over $10,000,000, Last 12 Months: 43

It is a very affluent marketplace!

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