by Jim the Realtor | Jul 2, 2025 | 2025, 2026, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
These graphs are updated on the first of the month so these are the latest numbers and they are interactive so you can scroll over to see the individual data.
These are tracking the Coastal North region of SD County. You can see the average and median cost-per-sf is dropping significantly for it being in the prime April-June period.
It’s why I think we are going to muddle through the rest of the year.
Instead, the adjustment will be in the number of sales, as sellers continue hold out on price but fewer homes being worthy of purchase in the eyes of the buyers.
If you think the inventory surge in 2025 was significant, wait ’til next year!
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 2, 2025 | Tips, Advice & Links |
Some homeowners in Southern California are taking a unique step to deter break-ins: blurring their homes on Google Maps. The move is simple but strategic.
By obscuring their home from Street View, they aim to make it harder for would-be burglars to digitally scout things like entry points, security cameras, or signs of high-value items.
According to police and crime experts, criminals frequently use tools like Google Maps to case homes before deciding which ones to hit.
Here is how to blur your own home:
- Go to Google Maps on a desktop (not the mobile app).
- Enter your address and drag the little yellow figure to the street for Street View.
- In the top-left corner, click “Report a problem.”
- Fill out the form, positioning the blur box over your home and explaining why you want it blurred.
Google will review the request, and once it’s approved, the blur is permanent.
While experts agree it can boost privacy and reduce risk, one criminologist noted it could backfire by signaling that something valuable is being hidden.
It’s a simple action that could give homeowners peace of mind.
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 1, 2025 | Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market |
I asked a few local real estate professionals what they thought about the current market conditions, and where the market might be going.
The two big title companies, First American and Fidelity (which insures 13-15 other title companies) said that the year-over-year numbers are steady/flat and they expect a slight increase over the rest of the year.
Alonzo said that the inventory is 28% above long-term norms. Price cuts are 18% above long-term norms, indicating increased pressure on sellers to reduce prices. Interest rates are hovering around 6.7% putting downward pressure on buyer demand. Don’t anticipate interest rates to drop till 2026. In short homes prices will slightly drop this second half of the year, with more buyer selection.
Anna, who runs the local transaction-coordinating company, said 2023, 2024, and 2025 have all felt very similar to her (me too). Her volume is steady.
Local realtor Tanya said she hopes the rest of 2025 is less uncertain than the first chaotic half! Her main thoughts are that there’s always a market, hot or soft, there’s always buyers and sellers. This year does feel different though – with the political chaos and slack consumer confidence and non-budging rates – so a less-motivated buyer pool could be a very hard pill to swallow for some sellers after years of being in the drivers seat.
Laker Joe said he’s experiencing longer market times, but if it’s single family, priced right and in great shape in a good location, then you could have multiple offers. If not, it’s gonna take a bit. Definitely more of a traditional market. And with the number of cancellations; listing agents definitely want to work with other reputable agents that will get across the finish line with their Buyers.
I thought the last two comments were very pertinent.
Even though sales have been holding up nicely, I think it’s going to get tougher, Specifically, the third quarter of 2025 is likely to be very different than usual.
I think we are due for a 25% plunge in 3Q sales.
Here’s why:
- Too many listings.
- Too many picked-over listings.
- Rates aren’t changing enough.
- The best 2025 buyers have bought a house by now.
- The remaining buyers want a deal.
Sellers are slow to adjust on price. Because the remaining inventory is down to the picked-over and somewhat-inferior homes (judging by them being unsold), their prices need more correction than before. They need a strong correction – like 10% in July, which just about every seller will resist.
It’s why I think there will only be around 400 sales in 3Q25.
Today, there are 162 pendings, so 400 sales over the next 3 months is possible. Any plunge in sales will be a reflection of how much sellers resist lowering their price, how willing buyers are to making lowball offers, and the agents’ ability to create deals that eventually close escrow.
You can probably understand why I have my doubts!
It won’t change the likelihood that January and February will be red hot again, and even the 4Q25 sales will be decent as the new reality gets collaborated into play. With a 25% plunge in 3Q sales, the annual count will only be -4% under the total sales in 2024.
But the 3Q is where the price discovery will be occurring.
Because sales are the precursor, they need to dip before the pricing gets fully affected. But pricing is already softer, so it will be in the 3Q that the final impact/correction on values takes place to get pricing where it needs to be for the 2026 January-February Selling Season.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 30, 2025 | Market Conditions, North County Coastal |
More on the market conditions being observed around the country:
JtR: I don’t see many buyer-agents showing properties at all. Open-house traffic is spotty at best and mostly lookers with casual interest. Homes are still selling but sales will likely slow the rest of the year, starting now. The NSDCC sales for June will be 10% to 15% fewer than last June.
https://x.com/newslambert/status/1939663963005788665?s=46
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 30, 2025 | Inventory |
There was a 17% increase in pendings this week, which is in line with last year when the last week of June was the high point for pendings in 2024. This week should be fruitful too.
Here are new pendings this week to help demonstrate the price-reductions-to-days-on-market relationship:
The NSDCC pricing is at its lowest point of the year with the median list price under $3,600,000 for the first time in 2025. With improving rates over the last week, it was just enough to spark some additional activity:
NSDCC List Price Quartiles
| Week |
1st Quartile |
Median List Price |
3rd Quartile |
| Jan 6 |
$2,685,000 |
$4,472,500 |
$7,995,000 |
| Jan 13 |
$2,499,000 |
$4,250,000 |
$7,750,000 |
| Jan 20 |
$2,695,000 |
$4,300,000 |
$7,767,000 |
| Jan 27 |
$2,795,000 |
$4,498,000 |
$7,995,000 |
| Feb 3 |
$2,695,000 |
$4,350,000 |
$7,499,000 |
| Feb 10 |
$2,799,000 |
$4,299,000 |
$7,695,000 |
| Feb 17 |
$2,695,000 |
$4,200,000 |
$7,750,000 |
| Feb 24 |
$2,699,500 |
$4,250,000 |
$7,645,000 |
| Mar 3 |
$2,550,000 |
$4,375,000 |
$7,497,000 |
| Mar 10 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,200,000 |
$7,250,000 |
| Mar 17 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,995,000 |
| Mar 24 |
$2,595,000 |
$4,047,500 |
$7,275,000 |
| Mar 31 |
$2,499,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$7,300,000 |
| Apr 7 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,995,000 |
| Apr 14 |
$2,500,000 |
$3,999,000 |
$6,995,000 |
| Apr 21 |
$2,590,000 |
$3,995,000 |
$6,799,500 |
| Apr 28 |
$2,490,000 |
$3,988,000 |
$6,500,000 |
| May 5 |
$2,395,000 |
$3,795,000 |
$6,495,000 |
| May 12 |
$2,495,000 |
$3,895,000 |
$6,500,000 |
| May 19 |
$2,495,000 |
$3,950,000 |
$6,595,000 |
| May 26 |
$2,495,000 |
$3,984,500 |
$6,547,500 |
| Jun 2 |
$2,395,000 |
$3,799,000 |
$6,295,500 |
| Jun 9 |
$2,300,000 |
$3,649,000 |
$5,998,500 |
| Jun 16 |
$2,395,000 |
$3,649,000 |
$5,999,000 |
| Jun 23 |
$2,395,000 |
$3,649,500 |
$5,999,500 |
| Jun 30 |
$2,300,000 |
$3,598,500 |
$5,999,000 |
And these are the quartile prices of the unsolds!
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 29, 2025 | Jim's Take on the Market, Realtor, Realtor Training |
The somewhat-stagnant marketplace should get interesting in the second half of the year. Buyers will sense an opportunity to make aggressive offers, and they might waive all contingencies to help offset their lower price.
Can they still cancel the deal later?
Q. If a buyer removes all contingencies at the onset of a transaction, of course frowned upon, and we ask them to sign the acting against the advice of broker letter; does the buyer still have five days to cancel if they don’t like the disclosures?
A. The answer would depend on whether or not the statutory disclosures were provided to the buyer in advance of the contract being formed. Contingencies and disclosures are two different things. One does not necessarily relate to the other.
If a buyer elects to take the risk of entering into a transaction “contingent free” and against our advice, but has not yet received the statutory disclosures, the 5-day right of rescission (if delivered by mail or email – 3 days if delivered in person) would apply.
In that case, the buyer would indeed have time after receipt to terminate the agreement, even if the offer was contingent free.
Think of it this way: (i) contingencies are contractual rights and/or obligations (ii) statutory disclosures are those that allow for an unfettered right to rescind (meaning unwind) the agreement within the requisite time period.
On the other hand, if the listing agent provided the statutorily prescribed disclosure documents in advance of the offer being formed; the right of rescission would not apply because the buyer would have already received the completed documents. If the statutory disclosures are amended after the contract is formed, the right to rescind is reinstated.
Whenever a buyer is contemplating submitting a non-contingent offer; provide and review the C.A.R. Non-Contingent Offer Advisory (“NCOA”) with the Buyer no later than the time the offer is signed.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 28, 2025 | Where to Move |
16,000sf on 7.4 acres!
https://x.com/timurnegru/status/1938365996319776879?s=46
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 27, 2025 | 2026, Forecasts, Market Conditions |
These ivory-tower guys have explored the topic of rising inventory and it’s relationship with declining home prices – and backed up their conclusions with math that every rocket scientist should love!
https://home-economics.us/when-should-we-worry-about-rising-inventory/
Their summary in layman’s terms:
We answer two questions:
- Is there a specific level of inventory that reliably signals price declines?
- What’s the lag between rising supply and falling prices?
Our conclusions, in brief:
We estimate the inventory threshold at 5.0 months. Below that level, inventory has only a weak relationship with year-over-year home price changes. But above it, the relationship becomes more clearly negative, signaling price declines 9 months in the future.
Importantly, this is not a vague association. The fit is unusually strong: our best-performing model—a 9-month lag with a 5.0-month threshold—yields an adjusted R² of 0.75, indicating that it explains a substantial share of the variation in home price growth.
Based on the model coefficients, we calculate that the predicted change in home prices turns negative at 5.81 months of inventory.
In other words, once inventory rises above 5.0 months, prices tend to soften. If inventory climbs above 5.81, the model implies that year-over-year price declines are likely to follow—with a lead time of about 9 months.
The months of inventory is measured by dividing the current inventory by last month’s sales. For the NSDCC, it means 608/188 = 3.23 months of inventory.
But the NSDCC sales in June are lagging way behind. There have only been 111 closings this month and Monday is the last day. If it gets up to 125-130 sales, then the 608/130 = 4.7 months of inventory!
Let’s break it down to the individual zip codes:
The areas under 2.0 should be fine, at least for now.
But I’ll add that the impatience of sellers who failed to sell this year will be intensifying in 2026. The researchers’ 9-month-window-before-price-declines could be shorter once longtime sellers see a flood of inventory in the new year.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 27, 2025 | Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim |
The importance of hiring an experienced agent during tough times can’t be overstated. Every agent can handle the easy deals in the absence of chaos and uncertainty. But the deals are going down harder than ever now.
Buyers are gaining more control of the market every day, so the agent’s ability to understand that and advise their clients properly is critical. The evidence of how well an agent is navigating these turbulent times is their number of sales – can they get people to the finish line? Check their number of closed sales at Zillow.
Get Good Help!
https://www.mikedp.com/articles/2025/5/12/the-top-20-of-agents-do-65-of-transactions
P.S. We’ve closed 20 sales this year. Hopefully we’ll get to 26.3 by December!
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 26, 2025 | 2026, Inventory, Market Conditions |
The San Diego metro area is considered ‘Warm’ by realtor.com, but only because of the fantastic start we had this year. Our ranking among other metros is plummeting:
Jan: #65
Feb: #72
Mar: #96
Apr: #132
My green arrow above points out how if it weren’t for the hot action in January and February, we would have been on a steady slide.
It looks obvious by now, doesn’t it?
We’re going to muddle through the rest of 2025 and then have a nice pop to start next year. Probably not more than two months of 2026 hotness though, and then back to the muddling as inventory grows faster and higher than it did this year.
https://www.realtor.com/research/reports/hottest-markets/
