I was a true Black Sabbath fan – I had Paranoid and Volume 4 on 8-track! This was the best quality video I could find with the most coherent performance – it was filmed in 1998 after the band got back together (Ozzy was out for 18 years doing 13 solo albums)!
This is the funniest Ozzy thing I’ve seen – wait until the end:
The meandering through Flatsville is predicted to continue for the next 12 months – at least. The areas that have single-digit sales will have fewer comps to rely on and be particularly hard to accurately predict the values. Expect some wild fluctuations on occasion!
It probably means we’re in for a long slow grind downward on price – saved only by the first-quarter flurries that should happen every year. Unless mortgage rates dip into the 5s.
The pricing downturn is expanding throughout the country. While only a few communities felt it in January, now many (36%) of the top metro markets are feeling it:
Jan: 31 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 10% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the January 2024 to January 2025 window.
Feb: 42 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 14% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the February 2024 to February 2025 window.
Mar: 60 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 20% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the March 2024 to March 2025 window.
Apr: 80 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 27% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the April 2024 to April 2025 window.
May: 96 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 32% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the May 2024 to May 2025 window.
Jun: 110 of the nation’s 300 largest housing markets (i.e., 36% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the June 2024 to June 2025 window.
Year-over-year home value declines, using the Zillow Home Value Index, are evident in major metros such as Austin (-5.8%); Tampa (-5.7%); Miami (-3.8%); Dallas (-3.7%); Orlando (-3.7%); Phoenix (-3.5%); San Francisco (-3.4%); San Antonio (-3.3%); Jacksonville, Florida (-3.2%); Atlanta (-2.9%); Denver (-2.7%); San Diego (-2.4%); Raleigh (-2.1%); Sacramento (-1.8%); Houston (-1.8%); Riverside (-1.5%); New Orleans (-1.2%); Charlotte (-1.0%); Memphis (-1.0%); San Jose (-0.9%); Portland, Ore. (-0.4%); Seattle (-0.1%); Los Angeles (-0.4%); and Birmingham (-0.1%).
Goldman Sachs made this prediction: “Against the backdrop of an easing housing market, we expect national home prices to rise just 0.2% December-over-December this year and 0.8% next year.”
Thankfully, the buoyant first quarter of the year had a +3% in pricing for the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad market that will help offset the negativity we’ll have for the rest of the year.
Is there anything promising about the market? Yes!
There were 3% more NSDCC detached-home sales in the first half of 2025 (vs. 2024), which makes you think the market is doing fairly well if sales are higher!
But consider this stat – and this is Zillow reporting it, not me:
There were 40.9% of the sales that closed over their list price? WOW! Wouldn’t you think that in a regular market, about 10% or maybe 20% of the homes would sell above list?
This isn’t a normal market….or maybe it is?
We’ve received two offers on our Linda Lane listing, and it’s over list already.
How do you explain it?
Most of the enthusiasm is in the entry-level of each market where it’s more competitive. Once you get higher in price, there’s more inventory and buyers get more picky.
For example, the homes priced at $2,500,000+ in Olde Carlsbad better have something special about them because you can get a nice tract house in La Costa or something decent in Encinitas for that money.
There doesn’t appear to be enough buyers to pick up every home for sale, so that’s where the market will be made for the rest of the year.
Will sellers sharpen their pencil on price, or just let it ride? The vast majority won’t do much, if anything about their price. About 40% of them have been on the market for more than 60 days, so they are way off the buyers’ radar.
Another contributing factor is the demise of the buyer-agent.
I’ve had five agents tell me that they are writing an offer on Linda Lane. NONE of them showed their buyers the home initially – they all came to the open houses, which is fine because I like having some influence on them.
The traditional showing of a home by the buyers’ agent who properly advises their clients on the not-so-obvious features is where the deal is made. Without it, buyers are left to figure it out on their own, and it’s just too easy for them to stay on the fence unless they see something really special.
As a result, my job at open houses has evolved into being the de facto buyer-agent. I’m the one who sells them on the value, and then they go find their agent to write it up!
I don’t mind – in fact, I love it.
Do you see other agents really selling their product at open houses? Me neither. It’s why the market sluggishness will be around for a while, and maybe forever.
Sellers aren’t giving up yet, and with the additional inventory available, it could happen that the number of pendings this year might exceed last year’s count for a week or two (green line crosses over the blue line above). What a delightful end-of-summer treat that would be!
Sales may start tapering off though.
There are only 89 closed sales this month, so last year’s 198 is probably out of reach but if we can get to 160-180 sales it would be decent:
The summer season has been fairly quiet for us and most of the other participants. I mentioned last week that it would be nice if we have a bit of a surge as buyers try to get in before school starts.
Sure enough, all three of our active listings received threats of offers over the weekend, and hopefully something will come of it. I think it means we can add mid-July to our list of times you want to have your house on the market – with the other ideal times being in January and February.
Here’s a look how we did at our new listing in Carlsbad. I was figuring that the remaining projects would roughly price out like this: $50,000 for windows and 3 sliders, $50,000 for new kitchen, $50,000 for 2.5 new bathrooms, and $50,000 for new HVAC and landscaping:
Over the last 30 days, we’ve had 89,464 unique IP addresses visit bubbleinfo.com!
While that sounds quite flattering, the audience can’t be that big, can it?
Last week you may have noticed the security feature we had in place for three days, where you had to verify that you were a human to access the blog. It was a test to see how many real people we have here!
Thankfully, the result was better than I expected. From the third day:
It means there have been 2,000 to 5,000 bots per day reviewing my 12,000+ blog posts from the last twenty years and probably taking a snippet or two for their free use. I don’t mind as long as they are used in a positive way. Let me know if you ever read anything out there that sounds JtR-ish.
It also means that we have a few hundred real people visiting here every day!!
Thank you for being here. I appreciate your attendance and participation!
Our national real estate cheerleader at NAR, Lawrence Yun, has published his mid-year forecast. His original forecast for the 2025 Median Home Price was 2% originally, so his downgrade has cut it in half.
I don’t mind him having a revision, but doesn’t his 2026 sound wildly optimistic? He provided no substantiation or research data to back up his guesses.
In December, I guessed +5% and there was only +3% in NSDCC appreciation in the first quarter of 2025. My ‘flatsville’ call for the rest of the year is looking pretty good though, and might be optimistic!
Check out this nicely renovated 4br home built on a large 7,600sf lot on a culdesac where three homes have sold over $2,000,000 in the last 18 months – including the house right next door that closed for $2,040,000 in March and was then gutted down to the studs! The house across the street sold for $1,710,000 in 2024 and they tore it down to build a multi-million mansion! What’s the #1 rule in real estate? Buy the least-expensive home on the street! Our listing has new flooring and paint, lighting, fencing, landscaping – and ocean view too, with peek of Catalina Island!
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim & Donna Klinge helped us sell our home of 30 years in Ocean Hills. We were very happy with their service and would HIGHLY recommend them to anyone looking for an Honest, Knowledgeable, Skilled, Informed Efficient realty team. Both Jim & Donna were so helpful in different ways and complemented each others skills. Please refer to a more detailed review that we wrote on YELP. Thank You Both for all your help!!!
Jesse O'Hara
June 12, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!