Written by Jim the Realtor

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December 4, 2009

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32 Comments

  1. Paid off homoaner

    I have no doubt those will sell fast but for me no HOA MELLO ROOS,at least some sane prices for new construction.As land gets cheaper we will see lower prices therefore alot more losses for those poor banks and the CEO bonuses!

  2. pemeliza

    JTR, it seems you are heading further and further north looking for new home construction. While that is a good price point and I’m sure there will be plenty of buyers, I’m just not sure how much impact those houses will have on the more established areas in the locations closer to employment with prime school districts. If I was going that far north I would want something with some land or at least a nice view to make up for the downsides.

  3. Jim the Realtor

    I’ve been carrying around the last press release Local Boy sent me about this new tract, and he linked this today in the previous comment section:

    The first homes are now being framed for Rockrose at The Foothills, a Carlsbad new home neighborhood by Brookfield Homes. Rockrose new homes at The Foothills will offer 101 single family homes.

    Del Mar, CA (PRWEB) December 3, 2009 — The first homes are now being framed for Rockrose at The Foothills, a Carlsbad new home neighborhood by Brookfield Homes. A sales center for the neighborhood is expected to open in January, and three model homes are scheduled to open in spring.

    Located off Cannon Road, just east of El Camino Real and approximately three miles from the ocean, Rockrose at The Foothills will offer 101 single-family new homes in Carlsbad. Ranging from approximately 2,116 to 3,167 square feet, the three floor plans will have three to four bedrooms and two to 4.5 bathrooms. Pricing is anticipated to start in the low $600,000s.

  4. tj & the bear

    Gravity will not be denied!

  5. Ginger

    What is Mr. Obama doing to help the responsible savers who are flush with cash, have a job and a fico score north of 800 and would like to buy a home at a fair and reasonable price?

    Has there been a definitive answer given as to why so much effort and attention is being given to save reckless borrowers who have no business remaining in a home they clearly cannot afford?

    What happened to capitalism?

    Jim – Any thoughts?

  6. Blissful Ignoramus

    Capitalism? You’re looking right at it, Ginger.

    Interesting idea that the new construction is going to start dictating pricing, Jim. Now that you bring it up, it makes all kinds of sense.

  7. Jim the Realtor

    Ginger,

    Definitive answer? They’re trying to create a softer landing, instead of a hard crash.

    What’s Obama doing to help the more prudent?

    He is doing one thing. Thanks to the trillion spent on MBS you can get a mortgage with the lowest 30yr fixed rate of all-time.

    The government is compelled to do something. Yes, the loan mod programs are only E-and-P, but the buying of MBS to keep rates low does help today’s buyers.

    I’ll answer the next question too, I don’t consider today’s buyers reckless.

    If you look at how hot the market is today in the middle of the holiday season, you’d be convinced that the current demand has a lot of leg left.

    If prices keep going lower, the demand will be higher, and it’ll make it even tougher to find, let alone buy, the right house at the right price.

    The younger you are, the pickier you can be. If you are 50+ years old, time is running out, especially if you’re getting a 30-yr mortgage.

    You can say it’s just sales talk from the sales guy, but it looks like common sense to me.

  8. Art Eclectic

    Ginger, frankly, I think SOME of the buyers right now are reckless. The ones putting 3.5% down fall into that category for me. If all they can rack up is 3.5%, they don’t have enough disposable income or enough willingness to live below their means to make a sensible long-term housing choice. Those paying full cash to get a great house in a good school district are the smart ones. They’ve protected themselves against wild swings in home value that drive others to make “business decisions.” People buying with only 3.5% or down payment assistance are speculating.

    I fully believe that you can buy a decent house in this market for a reasonable price as long as you aren’t being too greedy. Coastal McMansions are still overpriced in my book, especially those that come saddled with HOA and Mello Roos as Paid off homoaner mentioned. There is plenty of product out there in the less desirable neighborhoods if you aren’t looking for 3000 sq ft and a granite/stainless kitchen. Large, coastal houses in high performing school districts are never going to be affordable. There is too much competition from people who make more money than you.

    I say that as a responsible homeowner with a job, savings and FICO North of 800 who bought a tiny house in a dodgy neighborhood because it was what I could afford. You cannot compete with those who have higher incomes and trying to will only net you a trip to bankruptcy court and a foreclosure. As Sheryl Crow sang, the trick is “It’s not having what you want. It’s wanting what you’ve got.” Find a great house that you can afford and forget about marble bathrooms and three car garages.

  9. Jim the Realtor

    If all they can rack up is 3.5%

    I agree, but just because you went FHA doesn’t automatically mean that’s all the dough you had. I think there are some who are using FHA/low down payments as a hedge.

    Great comment Art, thanks.

  10. Chuck Ponzi

    Jim,

    In the video you described the “first mover advantage” described in the prisoner’s dilemma that I pointed out a while back.

    If banks don’t take it, builders will. Houses are still above their economic value.

    Chuck

  11. Paid off homoaner

    With record low interest rates why put a big down payment down; save the money and later when rates go up buy cd’s.

  12. Local Boy

    Art–It not the Coastal McMansions that are overpriced, it is the 2000sf, 25 year old homes that sell all day long for $300+ per sqf that are overpriced. The McMansions, to me, seem like a bargain considering their alternatives!

  13. doughboy

    New construction will play into all pricing, but remember the 25k in upgrades from vinyl flooring and cultured marble to something better and getting that dust bowl of a lot landscaped is another 50k to do it on a budget with no frills. 599k for a 3k sq ft new home looks pretty good at the front end, it gets deeper once you buy into it.

  14. The Blur

    “just because you went FHA doesn’t automatically mean that’s all the dough you had.I think there are some who are using FHA/low down payments as a hedge.”

    Yup. Even if you’ve got 20%+ for a down payment, why wouldn’t you take the option at 3.5% that the taxpayers pick up if you’re out of the money? The government has changed the rules of the game. I may be responsible, but I’m tired of being a sucker.

    I’d also like to borrow as much money as I can at 4.5% and pay it back in tomorrow’s highly inflated, worthless dollars (thank you Fed.) It’s easy to beat 4.5% keeping the money in my own hands and investing it.

  15. pemeliza

    “I fully believe that you can buy a decent house in this market for a reasonable price as long as you aren’t being too greedy.”

    Yes! The deals are out there but nobody is going to hand you one. You have to be patient, flexible, realistic and work hard. If you want to make it a little easier get a passionate realtor like JTR.

  16. Erin

    Just found this on the Williams lyon website. Blossom Grove at the Foothills in Carlsbad. with floor plans! We are renting in Calavera Hills so we’ve been watching the development near Cannon/College for over a year now. Construction has been busy lately.
    http://sandiego.lyonhomes.com/homes/community.php/Blossom_Grove.html?c=335
    I know it’s Carlsbad schools, just wondering which ones….

  17. Erin

    p.s. Blossom Grove 1992-2840 sq ft. Starting in the low 600’s.

  18. Art Eclectic

    Local Boy, I guess it’s a matter of perspective. I’d rather have the older house and do some updating than deal with questionable construction techniques that will reveal themselves in due time on a lot the size of a postage stamp. We got lucky on this coast and most of the Chinese drywall went to the Southeast part of the country…but it could just as well have been us. I don’t trust any of these large home builders as far as you can throw one of their houses.

    I’d rather have a YARD, which most of these McMansion neighborhoods don’t have much of. I’d also like more than 3 feet between my bedroom window and the neighbor’s kitchen. Heck, you can barely call some of these places “detached” they are so close together. 2k sq ft with a big yard, in an established neighborhood with parks and close to shopping? Yes, please.

    Different strokes for different folks. Obviously, plenty want the massive square footage and no yard, but plenty also want a different lifestyle than cookie-cutter. I think the latter is overprice because it doesn’t appeal to me, you think the former is overpriced because it doesn’t appeal to you. šŸ™‚

  19. osidebuyer

    Jim / Blur, regarding FHA

    My sentiments exactly. I had easily 20% to put down when I bought in June, but I went 3.5% FHA as a personal financial choice. I am extremely conservative and have large savings & excellent credit as well.

    Nonetheless, Shadash keeps screaming all FHA buyers are idiots. Maybe I’m the exception. Or maybe I’m an idiot.

  20. pemeliza

    I think if you can get an FHA loan at 3.5% down that is great for the buyer! What some folks around here are questioning is whether the government should be in the business of writing free puts on home values. Its the classic heads I win tails you lose situation with the taxpayer as the bag-holder.

  21. Jim the Realtor

    osidebuyer has a point.

    I’m fine with questioning the government’s duty to provide generous financing options, but to bash every FHA buyer too isn’t right.

  22. osidebuyer

    I agree, maybe the govt shouldn’t be doing it. They are probably just slowing the inevitable and like Peter Schiff says, we should let it all burn to the ground and get it over with.

    Nevertheless I took advantage of it because it was there, in the same way I file my taxes so that I maximize my return.

  23. Erin

    Ok, so far this is what I’ve found.
    The Foothills Community at College/Cannon in Carlsbad will have the following neighborhoods-
    RockRose (Brookfield Homes)
    Blossom Grove (Williams Lyons homes)
    Alcea http://www.drhorton.com/corp/GetCommunity.do?pr=45157&utm_source=newhomesdirectory&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=NHDListing&utm_campaign=newhomesdirectory_listings

    and I’m sure more?

    New homes I don’t mind, but I do want more than a patio for a backyard. I will be driving around this community checking out lot sizes; all the meanwhile continually looking for a “used” house with a decent yard in Carlsbad schools….

    Will be interesting to see what kind of pressure this puts on sellers of existing homes?

  24. Erin

    “I’m fine with questioning the government’s duty to provide generous financing options, but to bash every FHA buyer too isn’t right.”

    Thank-you!
    We are most likely going to use a VA loan. No, we don’t have 20% down (gasp, I know, sorry, being honest here), but we do have a downpayment. We are using a VA loan to avoid the PMI we’d have to pay with a regular loan, and we also qualify to have the typical VA funding fee waived. So for us, it seems like the smart thing to do.

  25. shadash

    Whatever people want to say to justify purchasing through FHA is fine by me. But, if you step back and look at what’s going on you realize that if FHA financing wasn’t available houses would be cheaper.

    Home prices on the lower end where buyers typically use a mortgage are very sensitive to interest rates and down payment requirements. The lower the interst rate the higher sellers can charge. Also the lower the amout of down payment required the more potential buyers are able to buy.

    It really is that simple.

  26. Kingside

    FHA financing has been around since 1935. My grandfather was responsible for this bubble too.

  27. john

    Will the HOA require you to put fill in the backyard 6 months after you buy like the HOA in SEH did? Also with new homes, the builders tend to price the first phases low and then ratchet up the prices at least from what I have seen.

  28. Ginger

    Jim,

    Thanks for the answers.

    By reckless buyers, I was referring to those that purchased from 2004-08 and are now receiving loan mod’s, etc. to stay in their homes (not today’s buyers).

  29. Local Boy

    Shadash–If there were no financing all toghether, prices would be REAL CHEAP!!!

  30. Chuck Ponzi

    Kingide,

    I think you have missed the point completely. FHA was intended for low-income borrowers to get a leg up in a competitive market.

    It has turned into dangerously incentivizing buyers at the high end of an inflated market.

    I have no problem with high risk as long as it’s the risk-taker’s money being put up. This is a perfect example of moral hazard; taking risk with other people’s money.

    Jim is right that it’s not the buyer’s fault for taking the free money. I would also buy with FHA at this point.

    Shadash is also right that prices would be lower if the government would stay out of inflating the market.

    You can take advantage of free money while simultaneously seeing how it creates longer-term imbalances that must sort themselves out eventually. We can only push our problems out so long; at some point they consume us.

    The greater fear is that our children and theirs will pay for our imprudence dearly. That’s a terrible legacy to leave, and I do have some hope that our children will have some pride in our actions. Unfortunately, our leaders do not share the beliefs of their constituents and the game is rigged against prudence.

    In the end, I think Shadash is right but he’s hating the player, not the game.

    Chuck

  31. 3clicks from da beach

    osidebuyer,

    You are considered an ‘Outlier’ by many. Problem is most of your type go on with daily life inconspicously – I’m guessing. Frankly, I’m tired of people trying to ‘steal’ one from the bank or gov’t. I wasn’t born with a silver spoon in my mouth otherwise I wouldn’t post here so much, but at some point people need to get off the can and get on with their lives, because money won’t do you in. The stress will.

  32. leucadia renter

    jim – thanks for this video, this is me (family) in a nutshell. We are done with the 600K+ cbad/encintas homes built in 1990s that still have the original carpet, pink tile bathrooms, and 12×11 master bedrooms (and all the short sales). We are going NEW, thanks to the 4.5ish rate, and some good incentives. I’m OK paying 2-3 hundred bucks a month for HOA/MR, to get a brand new house with all the fixens, and hopefully some kind of yard.

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