How is the 2010 market comparing with previous starts?
North SD County Coastal Detached Homes (from Carlsbad to La Jolla), during Jan. 1-11:
| Year | Total Listed | LP $/sf | Closings | SP $/sf |
| 2002 | $366/sf | $252/sf | ||
| 2003 | $416/sf | $319/sf | ||
| 2004 | $527/sf | $385/sf | ||
| 2005 | $530/sf | $498/sf | ||
| 2006 | $560/sf | $511/sf | 2007 | $543/sf | $522/sf |
| 2008 | $465/sf | $481/sf | ||
| 2009 | $545/sf | $387/sf | ||
| 2010 | $553/sf | $339/sf |
The lower number of listings is contributing to the constricted-inventory conditions, and the average list-price-per-sf is reflecting exuberance on behalf of the early listers – we’ll see how they do.
The very-low number of closings makes it look like things fell apart towards the end of 2009, but was there a big rally to close before year-end?
North SD County Coastal Detached, DECEMBER:
| Year | Dec. Closings | SP $/sf | DOM |
| 2002 | $332/sf | ||
| 2003 | $370/sf | ||
| 2004 | $488/sf | ||
| 2005 | $469/sf | ||
| 2006 | $477/sf | 2007 | $441/sf |
| 2008 | $392/sf | ||
| 2009 | $403/sf | ||
Yep, there was a push to close at the end of 2009 – the industry is starved for transactions.
Over 2009 it looks like we just stumbled along in North SD County Coastal region, in spite of being 18% off peak pricing. Here are the yearly totals:
North SD County Coastal Detached, YEAR
| Year | Total # of Closings | SP $/sf | DOM |
| 2002 | $303/sf | ||
| 2003 | $346/sf | ||
| 2004 | $446/sf | ||
| 2005 | $479/sf | ||
| 2006 | $481/sf | 2007 | $468/sf |
| 2008 | $438/sf | ||
| 2009 | $394/sf | ||
If there were more well-priced properties, we could sell twice as many homes. Back in the day, everything was selling, even the crappy deals. Today the buyers are much more discerning, and if the price ain’t right, no sale.
jim,
There really isnt a lack of inventory is there?It is just being held back by banks and short sales that seem to never close.It seems very artificial to me.
I don’t know – here’s a snip of today’s nctimes.com:
Most of the banks contacted for this story were not able to respond in time for publication, but Gary Kishner, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase & Co., did not hesitate.
“Chase does not hold properties or hold off on notices of default in order to artificially control the market,” Kishner said. “One of the things you’re seeing as a contributing factor, there are a lot of people getting loan modifications, a lot of people applying for hardships and we’re working on forbearance plans with them.”
http://www.nctimes.com/business/article_d218c395-887b-56f0-a82d-0731deb461db.html
Maybe they’re not holding back but they’re not in any hurry (so long as the government is giving them free use of money).
A $224/sq ft difference between listings and sales? Wow. Lots of kool aid still being passed around amoungst delusional sellers.
“A $224/sq ft difference between listings and sales? Wow. Lots of kool aid still being passed around amoungst delusional sellers.”
This is precisely why it is so frustrating to be a buyer right now. If you look at inventory priced in line with comparable sales how much inventory do you have in desirable areas? A couple dozen houses?
Inventory for sale is no longer a reliable indicator of price trends as can be seen by the fact that both prices and inventory (for sale) have been steadily declining now for some time. Meanwhile the fundamentals are continuing to get worse as rents fall through the floor, interest rates increase, government support wanes, unemployment stays high, and more and more underwater owners throw in the towel.
I don’t know how this is going to play out but to me it is not a stable situation. Ultimately, I think this market is unpredictable because it is driven by psychology and not fundamentals.
.Or maybe the discrepancy between listing and sales prices is an artifact due to lower priced properties selling along the coast while the higher end languishes. Talking about artifacts, in 2008 selling prices were higher than listing prices
I am surprised $/sf is only off 18% from the peak. Seems like the risk is still very much to the downside on that.
Jim, you’d better replace LP (listing price) with WP (wishing price).
“Chase does not hold properties or hold off on notices of default in order to artificially control the market,” Kishner said. “One of the things you’re seeing as a contributing factor, there are a lot of people getting loan modifications, a lot of people applying for hardships and we’re working on forbearance plans with them.”
LOL chase isnt basically foreclosing on anyone!
Have a couple associates who have their 1st’s with Chase one hasnt paid in 15 months and the other 19 months with no NOD yet.
As well as the chase REO outsourcers I have basically have been dry on REO inventory for past 12 months. It is interesting on what they report to the press and what is actually occuring.
Vegas,
Who’s the sucker?
People paying their mortgages or your buddy’s that haven’t’ paid theirs for 15 and 15 months?
Funny Shadash.
Going a little off topic, I wonder what impact these squatters have had on consumer spending. This is a self selected group with a greater propensity to consume, so I doubt all of this is flowing into savings. The aggregate balance of this hidden stimulus is?
“Chase does not hold properties or hold off on notices of default in order to artificially control the market,” Kishner said. “
I don’t believe a word they say. They’ve lost all credibility…what makes me believe what they say now is true? They are habitual liars.
I agree with Noz. How many bankers heads rolled becuause of this debacle? Hardly any. The same morons who got us into this credit crisis are still running the banks. Consequences? What consequences. The US has become the everbody gets a trophy just for showing up society. These banker crooks should be in jail.
“Chase does not hold properties or hold off on notices of default in order to artificially control the market,” Kishner said. “
Blantant BS, I’ve spoke to many owners in default who haven’t received their first NOD after not paying for 6 months and the NOS never gets filed. Delayed, delayed delayed…