14 Comments

  1. CA renter

    Happy (Chinese) New Year to you and your family, Jim! 🙂

    Agree 100%. We are always out looking, but have no intention of paying anywhere near peak prices. A number of our (very well-qualified bubble-sitter) friends are also out looking and people are making multiple offers — which is the reason I think the buyer pool is much smaller than some might think based on the “multiple offer” stories. Still, nobody’s bidding anything up. They’ll look at something that is priced **close** to what they think it should be, then lowball it. These are the homes that are getting multiple offers, IMHO.

    Yes, we are all out looking because we are frustrated about it taking so long, and just want this thing to be over with. All of us resent the intense manipulations going on in favor of the sellers, so we are also pretty resentful about how things have been handled so far (sorry, I know that doesn’t sound nice).

    Just one perspective based on a small sample of us and our friends, but there it is.

  2. Rich

    Hi Jim,

    As a buyer that’s looking right now (Peñasquitos) you hit the nail on the head for me. My wife and I are frustrated with the banks for not releasing distressed properties and taking forever to approve SS offers, and frustrated with traditional sellers who still want prices that are higher than recent comps can support.

    We have offers on two SS properties and we’ll just keep looking. There’s just too much money involved here to be impatient. We are seriously considering only distressed properties because they are the only ones that are priced competitively with recent comps (which were mostly also distressed properties). We go look at some regular sales, but we’re never going to buy one unless it’s priced like the distressed stuff. The fact that it’s spring is not going to make us jump on something. It has to meet our needs and be really well priced. Until we find that we’ll just keep looking and wait.

    Thanks,

    Rich

  3. Susie

    “And people who are frustrated are resentful and reluctant to jump in. …And they’re only gonna jump in if they find the right house at the right price.” (JtR)

    Gee, are you inside my head, Jim? Recently a rep from the property management company called to tell me my landlords want to show the house to another couple who are looking for an investment. The house isn’t presently listed but…

    The question for me is if there are new landlords will my rent increase. I feel certain it will. And I’m already paying $800 more a month than my highest mortgage ever right now.

    If this house sells and the new landlords increase the rent, then I should start packing. And I have no desire to move to another rental. I haven’t been a homeowner for over seven years. It feels like seventy…

    I hope to make my second real estate trip in the next few weeks. Just yesterday, I found seven homes that look promising. Yep–I was born in CA–but I feel like it’s time to jump ship…

  4. pemeliza

    “We go look at some regular sales, but we’re never going to buy one unless it’s priced like the distressed stuff.”

    There is always going to be a differential between “distressed” sales prices and “regular” sales prices. The reason is not because “regular” sellers refuse to drop their prices to those of the “distressed” prices. The reason is that “distressed” prices are listed 10-20% under “regular” prices to generate immediate interest and activity on a product that is probably trashed, doesn’t come with any disclosures, and is either going to require you to be the winner of a bidding war with all cash to buy or in the case of a short sale wait 6-8 months and hope the bank doesn’t decide to foreclose anyway.

    If “regular” sellers immediately set prices to “distressed” levels, the next “distressed” seller would have to shave off 10-20% from that to be competitive and so on. If the market worked like this prices would decay exponentially to zero after a few sales.

    Of course, in time the “regular” sellers have to bring their prices down to complete but it takes a while and by then the “distressed” sellers are that much lower. This feedback loop continues until the volume of “distressed” sales become negligible which is probably a few years off.

    The key as a buyer is to not get caught up on the best “distressed” deals because you probably are not going to get those deals unless you have cash or know a realtor who is willing to “bend” the rules. Rather evaluate every situation on a house by house basis and pull the trigger when things make sense to you. By picky, be careful, and take a long-term view.

  5. Jim the Realtor

    Thanks pemeliza, well said.

    Everyone has probably heard by now that the video going around all week talking about the sweetheart OneWest Bank deal has been repudiated by the FDIC.

    But these deals still sound sweet – here’s another:

    http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2010/pr10003.html

    Colony paid 90.5 million for its approximate 44% share of the unpaid principal balance.

    They say that 70% of the 1200 loans were delinquent, but they don’t mention how the delinquency ratio translates to the $1.02 billion. But let’s use the same 70%, and that $300 million is performing.

    $300 million x 44% = $132 million is Colony’s share of the performing assets.

    So they paid about 68 cents on the dollar for performing assets, and they’ll foreclose on the remainder, then reduce the rents, and enjoy those returns.

    It is what needs to happen – the rents need to be cut in half or more, and then worked backward to pencil. I think the tenants, the delinquent property owners, and failed banks would have all taken that deal if they could have gotten it.

    By the time this is done, this country will be owned by the well-connected uber-rich (if it’s not already).

  6. Billyfeet

    By the time this is done, this country will be owned by the well-connected uber-rich (if it’s not already). BURMA SHAVE!

  7. Jinx

    I haven’t been a renter for over 10 years, but given the overpriced trash on the market right now, we’re ready to do it. We’re getting our house ready to put on the market next month so we can take advantage of the ridiculous prices buyers seem to be willing to pay for homes in great shape.

    Do you expect house prices to be flat for a while?

  8. Jim the Realtor

    Dawg said it best, we need to throw out all previous assumptions and opinions.

    Will prices be flat? I think it’ll depend on where we’re talking about, and how new inventory rolls out in those specific neighborhoods.

    Oceanside pricing is going to look like it is rising, if you use the standard measures. Carmel Valley will probably ‘look’ flat, but it could fool us because of low inventory. If there was a surge of new listings one month that satisfied some of the unmet demand, you could see a bunch of houses sell for more than recent comps, and then quiet down again.

    It will be a mixed bag of goo.

  9. Madog

    That’s right Jim, “It will be a mixed bag of goo”

    The Mira Mesa and Oceanside homes are closely related to the San Diego County median home prices, now within the $300K range are the prices I watch like hawk for possible pricing trends.

  10. Jinx

    The house we’re planning on selling is in Oceanside (92054). We can make a tiny profit keeping it as a rental. But prices here seem to be ticking back up, so maybe we should keep it as a rental for a couple of years and hope it goes up some more?

    It’s hard sorting through the bag of goo.

  11. Rich

    “There is always going to be a differential between “distressed” sales prices and “regular” sales prices. The reason is not because “regular” sellers refuse to drop their prices to those of the “distressed” prices. The reason is that “distressed” prices are listed 10-20% under “regular” prices to generate immediate interest and activity on a product that is probably trashed, doesn’t come with any disclosures, and is either going to require you to be the winner of a bidding war with all cash to buy or in the case of a short sale wait 6-8 months and hope the bank doesn’t decide to foreclose anyway.”

    I was blowing off some steam, but if I was to cut my comments a little more finely:

    In my area the trustee sale properties that actually sell to a 3rd are going for around 80-85% of market. Those are the only properties that specifically require all cash. The properties also have no disclosures and can feature all kinds of encumbrances. However very few properties are selling at the trustee’s sale as noted here.

    Some REO properties are available, but I see a number of foreclosed properties sitting vacant but not for sale or still owner occupied. Either way, I can’t buy them. Almost all the NOTS properties I’m tracking on Foreclosure Radar just keep getting postponed, so there’s not much REO inventory. The few REO properties that I’m seeing do not require all cash. Some are bid up, others are not. They usually need some work, but it’s mostly carpet and paint. They haven’t been truly trashed.

    This leaves short sales, which for now are the best and most plentiful access to distressed properties. The SS properties I see are not 10-20% below market. Just looking at the math, statistically that would be difficult to do. Short sales are part of the market, and right now represent a pretty sizeable chunk (maybe 50%) of what actually sells. The regular sales would have to be 10-20% over market to make that math work for the market average. I’m not seeing that kind of spread between SS and traditional sales for the most part. The total spread between a traditional sale and short sale has been more like 10%, so the SS are about 5% below market if we assume that they make up about 50% of the market.

    I have found these numbers change depending on the exact area and even neighborhood.

    SS also do not require all cash and at least the ones I have offers in for have the same disclosure requirements as any normal sale. Some are getting bid up, but others are not. In the case of the two properties I have offers on there were only 2 or 3 interested parties. It hasn’t been a bidding war. The months long waiting on the banks that you noted is a reality.

    The thing is, even 10% spread (between distressed and regular sale) on a $700k property is enough for me to care about. A traditional sale would be nice and certainly has some value, but for me it’s not $70k nice (or more). For that kind of money I’ll be patient and stick to the distressed stuff. If other buyers want to pay $70k for a faster close (and some do), then great. But I won’t.

    I hope that clarifies my thinking.

  12. tj & the bear

    Here’s hoping the frustrated buyers *are* reluctant; often frustration makes people act rashly and overspend.

  13. CA renter

    By the time this is done, this country will be owned by the well-connected uber-rich (if it’s not already).
    ——————–

    We are already there. It’s why I’ve been so vehemently opposed to favoring flippers or other “investors” at the expense of real, middle-class working people who just want to buy primary homes.

    Isn’t it ironic that only the rich and well-connected are allowed to buy affordable housing? Even worse is that those “middle-class” Americans (who don’t have access to these same deals) will have to pick up the tab for the losses created by “investors” of all stripes.

  14. doug r

    Gung hey fat choy!

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