Are you thinking, “what can I expect this year?”
For those watching the new listings that are hitting the MLS these days, it may seem familiar. So far, the 2010 Spring Kick is looking much like last year’s.
Courtesy of our friends at Housingtracker.com, we’re seeing the usual uptick in new inventory, similar to recent years:
But during the Spring Kick season last year, the median list price of higher-end new listings went ballistic – between February and June, the median asking price rose from $663,000 to $865,958, an increase of 30%:
We haven’t seen that happen in recent years, did it cause the higher-end pricing to increase? Below is the graph of just the 75th percentile of North SD County Coastal region monthly median sales prices, showing relatively-flat pricing:
In 2009, the monthly detached sales for North SD County Coastal looks relatively normal – the usual increase in closings between May and August, with some extra pop in September and October, once sellers got off their high horse:
Look for a flood of overpriced higher-end homes coming on the market, but a relatively dull Spring Kick, because the buyers aren’t going for it. Either homesellers price it right, and sell, or they don’t.
Look for a flood of overpriced higher-end homes coming on the market…
“Look for a flood of initiallyoverpriced higher-end homes coming on the market…”
There. I fixed that for ya.
It’s almost… I don’t know… like a slinky snapping back?
Sellers (and their agents) are very slow to adjust.
Once listed, the family, friends, and neighbors ask “How much?”
The ensuing gasp and disbelief makes the sellers even more determined to beat the odds, and hold out for more.
You’ll hear the same sellers say, “I got what I wanted”, when asked about sales price while in escrow.
There are people listing right now for higher than peak pricing!
Someday this funk’s gonna end…
I was at an open house the other day and a guy hammering on roof across the street called me a paranoid weirdo — in morse code.
Hi Jim,
I think most of the houses that stay on the market longer than two weeks are priced over the top of the bubble.
For instance, just pulling from my local area:
418 SANTA BARTOLA, Solana Beach, CA 92075
Last sold in Sept. 2000 for a very reasonable $560,000.
If they put it on the market today for $699K I’m sure they would get plenty of offers.
But no. They put it on the market nearly 6 months ago for $942,000.
Slowly, they’ve been following the market all the way down and it’s now sitting at $889,900.
It’s this sort of thing that discourages potential buyers. No one is going to buy that OPT. And it’s just one example. There are hundreds more in N. County alone.
I still want to see a 90-day rule in effect. If your house hasn’t sold in 90 days, either take it off the market or drop it by a minimum of 15%. Another 90 days–another 15% and so on.
-Erica
on HIS roof… 😉
If buyers on the high end are like me, they are picky and busy. I have a list of properties I’d like to see but have a lot on my plate. It may just take a unique buyer that eventually had the time to mosey over to their stead, because I will pay full price if I find the right one. It might take me months to take a “look see” though.
Here are some good examples to support this spring wishing well
out of touch #1 $349 sq ft asking price
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100007483-6633_Remsen_Ct_Carlsbad_CA_92011
out of touch #2 $352 sq ft pleading and begging price
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100006736-1374_Sparrow_Rd_Carlsbad_CA_92011
in touch with price as it just sold @ $243 per nicely appointed sq ft and still in Aviara…
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090054629-6789_Mallee_St_Carlsbad_CA_92011
Erica – no doubt $699K would get alot of attention in that neighborhood now. $889K is ambitious in a declining market but I see that house closing above $800K if they can get it done soon. I will get much more interested when we see comps in the low to mid 700’s for 4/3’s in east SB. Not sure if we will ever see them get down under $700K consistently, but that sure would be nice.
doughboy,
I did manage a look of your first choice. Well worth the money. I would have considered but is too small for me. Outstanding views. The quality of the home was great and the view, just great.
#2 agreed. If they were at least 1 or 2 blocks from the ocean, ok.
Erica,
That neighborhood is one of the most delusional I’ve seen.
Take a look at 701 Santa Rosita asking $1.1 million, 41% over 2003 price, or $581/sqft which would be pretty close to an all-time record in that neighborhood, while 714 Santa Paula either just got pulled off the market or went pending after months of being listed at $695,000.
I’ve seen a lot of wishers in this neighborhood list and pull, list and pull.
Then you’ve got the Chang murder house at 966 Santa Florencia, which will probably hit the market at a reasonable price. The dead don’t get egotistical about selling price.
no shame either in this world
dacounselor and others: I think it has to go below $600K if you don’t have a view. I am renting for $3100/mo right now west of I-5 (but no view) 2400sq.ft.
NYTimes rent vs. buy says this house has to be priced in the $525K-$590K range to be worth owning. Eventually it will get back to that price…or else we’ll all be burning dollars for heat like Zimbabwe. 😉
Owning makes no sense in this area right now.
-Erica
BTW Jim if you see one 2400′ west of 5 in SB in the $500s, let me know…I am interested. I am also patient. 😉
-Erica
Erica,
If that price arrives California will have defaulted on its debt and it might even start looking a little Mad Max-ish around here.
Generally speaking and excluding big bombers, SB has to be 2.5X Oceanside at the least and Carlsbad/Encinitas has to be at least 1.75/2X. Separation of classes has to exist. Though looking at the tagging that was done over the long weekend one can’t always get away from the un-friendlies.
Solana Beach Homes For Sale
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Total Houses 55
Average Price $1,671,378
Median Price $1,219,876
Average PPSF $664
Median PPSF $550
Erica, paying $600k for 2400 feet would be $250 per sq. ft. Maybe you could find a deal like that down at the courthouse if you had the cash or maybe wait 12 months and see if we get interest rates in the 7-8% range.
Erica,
Yes, patience… ours will pay off!
Erica,
If that price arrives California will have defaulted on its debt and it might even start looking a little Mad Max-ish around here.
W.C. Varones | February 18th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
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Uh-oh. Is that bullishness coming from one of our newly-minted owners?
Just messin’ with you, W.C.! 😉
BTW, posted on your blog from your linked post the other day, but in case you didn’t see it, congratulations on your new home purchase! 🙂
“Maybe you could find a deal like that down at the courthouse if you had the cash or maybe wait 12 months and see if we get interest rates in the 7-8% range.”
Both are OK with me! I don’t have $500K in cash yet, but I am saving a few thousand bucks a month toward a down payment. 7-8% interest is also fine with me, since I’ll have a large DP and plan to get a short (15-yr) mortgage.
-Erica
Thanks CA renter! I’ll let you know how the homeownership thing goes.