Unfortunately we don’t know enough about the homeowners on the foreclosure rolls, other than they aren’t making their payments. If the government can help them get a loan modification that’ll stick, or they can bargain for a short sale, then we won’t see them on the court house steps in the near future.
How many defaulters could end up on the open market?
Here are the number of SFRs that have a NOD or NOTS filed, the combined number of detached short sales on the MLS (ACT+CONT), and the year-to-date results of the trustee sales conducted:
| Town or Area | NOD | NOTS | MLS | 2010 REOs | 2010 3rd Party Buys | 2010 Cancelleds |
| Carlsbad | ||||||
| Carmel Valley | ||||||
| EncinitasCrdff | ||||||
| La Jolla | ||||||
| RSFDMSB | ||||||
| RB West | ||||||
| Totals |
There are 900 properties on the f-list (366+534), and with only 278 of them actively engaged in trying to sell, it leaves roughly 622 houses in question (though there are probably short sale listings that aren’t in default yet).
Will they get a satisfactory loan modification? Or will they be the short-sale or foreclosure candidates over the next few months? Or live under the radar until forced to move?
There have been 252 closed MLS sales, year-to-date, so if all 622 went up for sale over the next few months, I think the market could absorb them.
Did anyone notice La Jolla went under last night:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lajolla-bank-among-4-closures-2010-02-19?reflink=MW_news_stmp
It’s being taken over by OneWest Bank.
I recently paid off 3 loans in full to LJB….what was I thinking.
The market seems good now. But if the fed starts raising rates (unlikely) it’s going to effect prices.
These loan mods are quickly becoming it is who you know,not necessarily if you need one financially. A Multi millionaire trust baby getting their principal reduced because they took out a ARM 5 years ago. Their financial advisors (AE)able to put the deal together.
A 5 million dollar home in O.C, owing less than 2 million. Chase modifies so they can continue living there during slow real estate sales for the owner. What do you modify when the home is worth 3 million more than what they owe?
The same person with 3 rentals, (rented out mind you), gets loan mods on their rentals.
United States personal responsibility is going downhill faster than the slalom racers at the Olympics.
L.D., don’t those racers crash sometimes?
Hey Jim, Thanks for the info. Whats your source for the f list numbers?