NSDCC Actives/Pendings

Actives/Pendings | Jim's Take on the Market | North County Coastal | NSDCC Pendings

July 16, 2018

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Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!

But all in all, we’re in pretty good shape today.

The active inventory hasn’t exploded, and as long as the supply stays in check, the sellers aren’t going to panic. Do the buyers have the willingness and ability to wait it out, with no assurance it will ever get better? Or will the lack of solid evidence keep the ball rolling, albeit at a slower pace?

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date	Actives	Pendings	A+P	A/P
Oct 28, 2015	970	358	1,328	2.71
Feb 1, 2016	788	254	1,042	3.10
Mar 23, 2016	900	399	1,299	2.26
June 21, 2016	1,052	428	1,480	2.46
Aug 17, 2016	1,060	395	1,455	2.68
Dec 4, 2016	886	327	1,213	2.71
Apr 21, 2017	842	427	1,269	1.97
July 16, 2018	973	357	1,330	2.73

NSDCC Actives Median Price = $2,288,045

NSDCC Pendings Median Price = $1,395,000

Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000 (which are the same ratios as the last reading in April, 2017).

Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area:

Area	Zip Code	June	Aug	Dec	Apr	Act/Pend Today
Cardiff	92007	2.3	3.5	1.1	1.0	2.5
Carlsbad NW	92008	2.0	2.3	1.3	1.2	2.9
Carlsbad SE	92009	1.6	2.0	1.9	1.0	1.3
Carlsbad NE	92010	0.7	0.9	1.3	0.9	1.1
Carlsbad SW	92011	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.1	2.4
Del Mar	92014	3.2	2.5	4.9	3.3	9.4
Encinitas	92024	1.3	1.8	1.8	1.6	2.0
La Jolla	92037	4.8	4.4	4.4	3.7	4.4
RSF	92067	8.2	6.3	6.3	5.2	4.6
Solana Bch	92075	2.9	3.9	2.7	1.5	2.0
Carmel Vly	92130	1.5	1.8	1.8	1.1	1.9
All Above	All	2.5	2.7	2.7	2.0	2.7

These stats are going to bounce around, so there isn’t anything here that gets me overly concerned.

Del Mar has always been a smaller, expensive subset (just eight pendings today), La Jolla is in line with their recent past, and RSF is as good as it’s been in years. Everything else is around the regular 2.0 ratio for a normal market.