Thinking about it, and actually moving are two different things, however.
Around here, the annual turnover rate is 5% or less in most neighborhoods. Unless big changes are ahead?
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Prop 13 reform will happen 6-12 months after the next market plunge, which will happen sometime in Sept/ Oct 2020.
Timestamp. Look to Connecticut as California’s future.
What happens first:
Local real estate plunge (dip)?
or
Padres win the World series?
Dip doesn’t include:
Houses outrageously over-priced today (by $1M to $2M) that sell for their realistic price in the next 1-3 years. Sellers will bemoan how the market plunged, but they were living in fantasyland previously (today).
The question is fake. Ask people if they are considering leaving for any reason and the numbers skyrocket.
The SFR rental market in Carlsbad and Encinitas appears to be getting soft. Any comments on that? I see a lot of homes that have been listed for rent 30++ days and the owners are dropping their asking rent prices. Have not heard much about the rental market lately,
I don’t do rentals so I don’t have any first hand knowledge…..other than my opinion every time I happen to see a house for rent.
“Holy Cow!”
SFR Rental market fell off a cliff after June. Even worse in Carmel Valley. Everything sitting. Rents plummeting
Take a look at them Jim. Why do you think rents are plummeting Propmgr? I agree that everything is sitting and it’s not like everyone is buying. Maybe they are staying put or moving.
This was the only one I noticed lately that started at the magical $2/sf in Carlsbad, and after three weeks dropped to $1.87/sf and got it over Labor Day weekend:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2216-Recodo-Ct-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16662037_zpid/
Carmel Valley is such a family area that if you don’t rent before school starts, you’re gotta be toast. On the MLS there are 34 for rent at $3,000 and higher with a median market time of 54 days.
It doesn’t occur to people to lower their price – we haven’t had to do that for so long that not only don’t the agents remember that, neither do their managers!
RE: Plummeting rents in Carmel Valley
I have no idea if/when/where rents are plummeting. Propmgr’s name is well, Propmgr so he knows more than me.
But I do have the MLS.
There have been ten CV homes rented this month over $3,000. All got full price, except:
-100
-200
+200
-200 (got $6,200 on a $6,400 list)
The high mark was $6,500, and tenant paid the full pop.
If we go back to those that are for rent in CV, 23 of the 34 are houses. The median rent being asked is $5,850 per month on a median 3,588sf house.
$5,850 rent per month? And half are higher?
Holy Cow!
Don’t move away. It’s very difficult to move back to SoCal because rents and condo/home prices can leave you eating dust.
Signed,
A former SoCal resident.
Agree – anyone who moves away is very unlikely to move back. I’ve only had two.
MLS has never been a good indicator of rental market. Check Zillow which is most complete rental site and look in the 3BR+ $3000 to 5000 range. Compare asking to rent zestimates (usually accurate) and many are $300 to 700 below. Landlords are taking hundreds less than the last two years. Rents in Carmel Valley are the same or lower than Encinitas or South Carlsbad now. Too many properties bought by foreign investors as a hedge. Check Encinitas which usually has 4 to 6 homes and there are close to 2 dozen. Its changing rapidly
hundreds less = flesh wound to long-time owners.
It does pose one of my favorite questions:
It’s obvious that long-time owners can dump on price if needed, but will they? Or will ego get in their way?
Who really NEEDS to sell or rent, like they need air to breathe?
Up until now, the answer has been virtually no one.
Agree with everything you say. Rental market tends to swing more in short term then resale also. No doom but change seems to be a foot and bears watching
Yep, and I think it’s the frothy pricing that is being exposed.
Once you scrape off the exuberant optimism that is inherent in every list price, then you get down to the real beer!