Let’s try to predict what will happen in 2021!
For fun, our reader The Old Man suggested we look back at the predictions for 2020. I had guessed that sales would drop 10%, with the NSDCC median price rising 2% to 3% – here’s last year’s blog post:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2019/12/09/2020-predictions/
The 2020 sales count is already 12% ABOVE last year’s sales, and is the highest in history – and we’re not done yet. Is it even possible to have MORE sales next year? Yes, but only if we get a surge of inventory.
This is where it gets interesting.
The number of 2020 listings was 5% below last year, and 7% below the 2018 count. If we just get back to last year’s numbers, it will feel like a surge, but it’s really just going back to normal. I think the extra 5% is in the bag, and because of the additional reasons for people to sell, we will have a surge that will blow way the recent numbers of listings.
MY 2021 PREDICTIONS:
- We will have 10% more NSDCC listings than we had in 2020.
- We will have 10% more sales.
- We will have a 10% increase in the NSDCC median sales price.
And that, my friends, is what a FULL-BLOWN FRENZY looks like.
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And my prediction is of course that prices will rise. Worldwide the money printing machines are running overtime and people like hard assets whilst bricks, sticks and Labour have been tending upwards in price since the Roman empire 🙂
This pandemic has changed how and where people work.
Why live in San Jose and work remotely when you can live and afford in Encinitas, while working remotely?
I foresee a huge influx of tech workers from all over the country looking to buy in SD county.
Thx for being a good sport and playing along. No one could have predicted 2020.
I’m with you on 10/10/10 for 2021 and here is where I think the supply will come from.
On top of the aging early boomers in the older neighborhoods around here there were a ton of new homes built around here between 1995 and 2005 bought by late boomers.
Those neighborhoods filled up with young families. Now its 15 to 25 years later, the kids are grown, the house is more then most need and its worth 3 to 4X what it cost.
A lot of guys and gals in their 50’s to 60’s find themselves less employable and less motivated to change careers. Those homes are gonna fund a lot of sweet early retirements .
A lot of guys and gals in their 50’s to 60’s find themselves less employable and less motivated to change careers. Those homes are gonna fund a lot of sweet early retirements.
I agree with you and it is a fantastic concept……until you have to convince The Old Lady to move!
I’m guessing that only 1 out of 10 of those couples who fit that profile may move in the next 2-3 years. The rest will become realtors.
I don’t see many of these people in their 50’s or 60’s moving. North County SD is the END GAME for many, where should they move to that’s better? Also, these people in their 50’s and 60’s likely have a great 401k position and don’t NEED to move to fund their retirement.
I don’t see many of these people in their 50’s or 60’s moving.
We’ll see what happens when the tide rolls out.
People in their 50s? Yes, agree that they have a long road ahead.
People in their 60s, especially in their late 60s, have been empty nesting for 10+ years and have been digging into their retirement accounts for a while. The house needs work, the neighborhood isn’t what it used to be (other empty nesters already moved) and the stairs suck. Those riding the Trump train might visit the red states and decide what the heck – one more adventure before it’s over!
9 out of 10 won’t. But that one out of ten is my frenzy.
Joe
Divorce is the answer. I know a ton of couples that have been playing out the string until the kids go to college. They’ve been living separate lives for years. Those of us long haulers around here all know 5-10 couples like that.
It’s more than 5-10 couples….it could be as much as 33% to 50% of the populace.
But how many will do something about it? One out of ten, max.