Inventory Watch

by | Sep 16, 2024 | Inventory | 0 comments

There is more talk about the Fed cutting a half-point on Wednesday. If they only drop 1/4%, mortgage rates will probably rise because at least that much is already priced in today.

It won’t mean much for the long-time active listings unless they lower their price.

Of the 465 actives today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, only 73 were listed in September, with a median list price of $2,995,000. For buyers looking under $3 million, it means there are only a couple of dozen homes for sale that have a chance of being a hot buy – in an area of 300,000 people!

New listings that hit the market over the next couple of weeks will be in the right place, at the right time!

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
15
$724/sf
49
23
Jan 8
13
$645/sf
58
19
Jan 15
10
$664/sf
55
15
Jan 22
15
$750/sf
36
15
Jan 29
12
$834/sf
36
21
Feb 5
12
$784/sf
38
23
Feb 12
10
$818/sf
30
22
Feb 19
12
$731/sf
17
21
Feb 26
7
$725/sf
26
21
Mar 4
9
$763/sf
23
21
Mar 11
15
$742/sf
14
17
Mar 18
15
$697/sf
16
21
Mar 25
13
$846/sf
19
22
Apr 1
12
$897/sf
22
20
Apr 8
15
$869/sf
37
22
Apr 15
17
$811/sf
16
25
Apr 22
18
$829/sf
16
23
Apr 29
20
$796/sf
20
23
May 6
19
$868/sf
18
23
May 13
21
$859/sf
18
22
May 20
25
$939/sf
20
18
May 27
24
$897/sf
25
20
Jun 3
22
$879/sf
25
19
Jun 10
25
$834/sf
26
19
Jun 17
21
$823/sf
31
21
Jun 24
24
$752/sf
32
24
Jul 1
23
$760/sf
44
26
Jul 8
22
$801/sf
40
23
Jul 15
22
$815/sf
36
23
Jul 22
17
$814/sf
43
23
Jul 29
24
$815/sf
33
14
Aug 5
23
$771/sf
29
18
Aug 12
22
$787/sf
36
23
Aug 19
24
$773/sf
28
27
Aug 26
24
$760/sf
27
24
Sep 2
28
$767/sf
24
18
Sep 9
27
$803/sf
28
21
Sep 16
32
$808/sf
27
19

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
20
$866/sf
66
28
Jan 8
23
$890/sf
63
23
Jan 15
32
$876/sf
47
35
Jan 22
35
$823/sf
43
25
Jan 29
38
$833/sf
43
26
Feb 5
39
$810/sf
34
28
Feb 12
32
$781/sf
39
34
Feb 19
33
$797/sf
36
29
Feb 26
33
$840/sf
36
31
Mar 4
39
$827/sf
32
31
Mar 11
30
$857/sf
43
37
Mar 18
34
$847/sf
36
37
Mar 25
34
$848/sf
43
43
Apr 1
23
$873/sf
42
47
Apr 8
30
$884/sf
37
47
Apr 15
32
$961/sf
36
43
Apr 22
36
$964/sf
31
37
Apr 29
44
$921/sf
25
33
May 6
44
$921/sf
30
36
May 13
46
$939/sf
25
34
May 20
47
$965/sf
24
38
May 27
47
$965/sf
30
40
Jun 3
53
$1,006/sf
32
36
Jun 10
61
$942/sf
30
36
Jun 17
62
$909/sf
30
37
Jun 24
62
$909/sf
28
40
Jul 1
70
$883/sf
30
43
Jul 8
67
$925/sf
30
47
Jul 15
70
$888/sf
31
51
Jul 22
61
$858/sf
35
46
Jul 29
57
$859/sf
38
50
Aug 5
56
$892/sf
37
41
Aug 12
62
$895/sf
39
40
Aug 19
67
$879/sf
36
36
Aug 26
62
$899/sf
39
41
Sep 2
52
$912/sf
41
41
Sep 9
53
$889/sf
37
37
Sep 16
50
$877/sf
39
35

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
54
$1,046/sf
65
34
Jan 8
59
$1,034/sf
57
30
Jan 15
69
$1,094/sf
44
35
Jan 22
60
$1,108/sf
42
45
Jan 29
65
$1,126/sf
41
48
Feb 5
68
$1,120/sf
31
50
Feb 12
60
$1,123/sf
34
56
Feb 19
71
$1,130/sf
29
56
Feb 26
64
$1,138/sf
30
61
Mar 4
62
$1,202/sf
33
55
Mar 11
61
$1,211/sf
29
62
Mar 18
72
$1,143/sf
32
53
Mar 25
70
$1,101/sf
31
64
Apr 1
71
$1,049/sf
31
63
Apr 8
68
$1,076/sf
31
63
Apr 15
82
$1,058/sf
33
55
Apr 22
81
$1,066/sf
38
62
Apr 29
79
$1,076/sf
34
64
May 6
77
$1,067/sf
35
56
May 13
78
$1,069/sf
38
58
May 20
93
$1,049/sf
39
46
May 27
92
$1,053/sf
39
47
Jun 3
105
$1,025/sf
41
43
Jun 10
105
$1,035/sf
40
53
Jun 17
107
$1,002/sf
36
51
Jun 24
118
$1,034/sf
35
58
Jul 1
111
$1,013/sf
37
59
Jul 8
111
$1,019/sf
41
58
Jul 15
120
$1,014/sf
43
47
Jul 22
124
$972/sf
41
47
Jul 29
124
$974/sf
41
40
Aug 5
117
$978/sf
43
44
Aug 12
114
$964/sf
45
42
Aug 19
112
$982/sf
45
43
Aug 26
107
$957/sf
42
47
Sep 2
102
$945/sf
44
49
Sep 9
101
$965/sf
45
51
Sep 16
103
$982/sf
43
50

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
33
$1,216/sf
92
15
Jan 8
37
$1,248/sf
83
15
Jan 15
42
$1,236/sf
77
18
Jan 22
43
$1,283/sf
77
17
Jan 29
42
$1,242/sf
75
20
Feb 5
36
$1,363/sf
73
25
Feb 12
40
$1,252/sf
34
18
Feb 19
47
$1,515/sf
45
17
Feb 26
50
$1,512/sf
42
16
Mar 4
50
$1,588/sf
44
19
Mar 11
50
$1,594/sf
44
23
Mar 18
60
$1,537/sf
38
22
Mar 25
59
$1,614/sf
70
27
Apr 1
62
$1,660/sf
76
26
Apr 8
65
$1,479/sf
76
27
Apr 15
72
$1,442/sf
70
26
Apr 22
70
$1,462/sf
75
20
Apr 29
68
$1,434/sf
75
25
May 6
67
$1,373/sf
70
26
May 13
71
$1,355/sf
68
25
May 20
78
$1,298/sf
63
24
May 27
79
$1,267/sf
66
26
Jun 3
75
$1,272/sf
65
26
Jun 10
81
$1,248/sf
62
26
Jun 17
89
$1,195/sf
59
28
Jun 24
84
$1,229/sf
61
33
Jul 1
87
$1,227/sf
62
31
Jul 8
77
$1,278/sf
68
33
Jul 15
91
$1,263/sf
63
31
Jul 22
82
$1,272/sf
68
31
Jul 29
84
$1,221/sf
67
25
Aug 5
80
$1,180/sf
71
22
Aug 12
80
$1,196/sf
70
24
Aug 19
80
$1,145/sf
45
26
Aug 26
80
$1,118/sf
44
22
Sep 2
81
$1,144/sf
47
23
Sep 9
84
$1,143/sf
46
23
Sep 16
84
$1,168/sf
47
23

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
139
$1,858/sf
116
20
Jan 8
151
$1,896/sf
109
18
Jan 15
157
$1,879/sf
106
22
Jan 22
159
$1,824/sf
104
27
Jan 29
162
$1,758/sf
108
31
Feb 5
162
$1,718/sf
108
30
Feb 12
154
$1,705/sf
107
34
Feb 19
168
$1,685/sf
107
24
Feb 26
175
$1,691/sf
105
26
Mar 4
166
$1,692/sf
97
36
Mar 11
178
$1,663/sf
90
37
Mar 18
179
$1,691/sf
90
29
Mar 25
177
$1,693/sf
83
34
Apr 1
176
$1,713/sf
87
31
Apr 8
177
$1,771/sf
82
37
Apr 15
179
$1,731/sf
88
40
Apr 22
183
$1,733/sf
85
42
Apr 29
187
$1,765/sf
81
42
May 6
191
$1,751/sf
83
42
May 13
184
$1,754/sf
84
47
May 20
193
$1,734/sf
81
45
May 27
202
$1,716/sf
78
46
Jun 3
203
$1,694/sf
74
43
Jun 10
206
$1,716/sf
70
43
Jun 17
204
$1,666/sf
68
41
Jun 24
208
$1,678/sf
68
44
Jul 1
213
$1,673/sf
70
35
Jul 8
212
$1,674/sf
72
29
Jul 15
217
$1,637/sf
73
26
Jul 22
218
$1,633/sf
77
32
Jul 29
221
$1,626/sf
80
32
Aug 5
222
$1,627/sf
83
27
Aug 12
217
$1,624/sf
81
25
Aug 19
209
$1,633/sf
83
33
Aug 26
209
$1,617/sf
85
37
Sep 2
207
$1,623/sf
82
39
Sep 9
204
$1,662/sf
85
38
Sep 16
201
$1,658/sf
86
37

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
18
10
255
113
Jan 8
43
12
278
100
Jan 15
52
20
305
102
Jan 22
50
29
308
122
Jan 29
44
32
314
140
Feb 5
44
33
312
149
Feb 12
37
34
292
159
Feb 19
53
24
326
143
Feb 26
45
37
324
151
Mar 4
52
45
332
166
Mar 11
53
26
331
165
Mar 18
62
32
355
159
Mar 25
45
46
348
186
Apr 1
37
42
340
183
Apr 8
58
36
352
191
Apr 15
58
29
378
184
Apr 22
44
36
384
179
Apr 29
67
36
393
185
May 6
58
48
394
183
May 13
47
34
395
186
May 20
67
26
429
171
May 27
57
36
435
179
Jun 3
55
26
449
166
Jun 10
77
40
469
175
Jun 17
64
37
474
175
Jun 24
78
29
489
192
Jul 1
51
38
496
188
Jul 8
41
37
479
184
Jul 15
52
29
509
172
Jul 22
43
42
495
172
Jul 29
50
23
503
156
Aug 5
52
40
492
148
Aug 12
49
38
489
150
Aug 19
63
29
486
162
Aug 26
56
38
477
167
Sep 2
56
33
465
167
Sep 9
34
27
463
168
Sep 16
53
33
465
163

NSDCC List Price Quartiles

Week
1st Quartile
Median List Price
3rd Quartile
Jan 2, 2024
$2,549,888
$4,444,000
$8,350,000
Jan 8
$2,572,444
$4,447,000
$8,097,500
Jan 15
$2,499,000
$4,200,000
$7,950,000
Jan 22
$2,429,000
$4,250,000
$7,450,000
Jan 29
$2,399,000
$4,225,000
$7,495,000
Feb 5
$2,398,000
$4,272,500
$7,495,000
Feb 12
$2,499,800
$4,297,500
$7,495,000
Feb 19
$2,499,400
$4,200,000
$6,972,500
Feb 26
$2,649,400
$4,350,000
$7,300,000
Mar 4
$2,525,000
$4,225,000
$7,149,500
Mar 11
$2,649,000
$4,295,000
$7,495,000
Mar 18
$2,500,000
$4,000,000
$6,750,000
Mar 25
$2,680,000
$4,097,499
$6,750,000
Apr 1
$2,785,000
$4,150,000
$6,999,999
Apr 8
$2,680,000
$4,047,500
$6,999,000
Apr 15
$2,570,000
$3,899,500
$6,797,500
Apr 22
$2,499,000
$3,982,500
$6,495,000
Apr 29
$2,399,000
$3,990,000
$6,750,000
May 6
$2,485,000
$3,995,000
$6,825,000
May 13
$2,475,000
$3,895,000
$6,900,000
May 20
$2,420,000
$3,750,000
$6,480,000
May 27
$2,495,000
$3,840,000
$6,695,000
Jun 3
$2,475,000
$3,749,000
$6,395,000
Jun 10
$2,388,000
$3,500,000
$6,187,000
Jun 17
$2,412,500
$3,599,500
$5,995,000
Jun 24
$2,350,000
$3,500,000
$6,398,000
Jul 1
$2,398,000
$3,600,000
$6,400,000
Jul 8
$2,399,000
$3,650,000
$6,500,000
Jul 15
$2,399,999
$3,500,000
$6,398,000
Jul 22
$2,399,000
$3,695,000
$6,398,000
Jul 29
$2,375,000
$3,650,000
$6,187,000
Aug 5
$2,350,000
$3,699,500
$6,295,000
Aug 12
$2,349,000
$3,650,000
$5,995,000
Aug 19
$2,315,000
$3,595,000
$5,995,000
Aug 26
$2,299,999
$3,649,000
$5,999,000
Sep 2
$2,350,000
$3,698,000
$6,495,000
Sep 9
$2,300,000
$3,700,000
$6,495,000
Sep 16
$2,345,000
$3,695,000
$6,250,000
author avatar
Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
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