I thought the run-up to the election would cause potential home sellers to wait it out.
Wouldn’t it make sense to NOT list your home in the month or two before the most contentous election in history? Certainly home sellers would have foresight and believe that buyers would be distracted. Everyone would be doing the wait-and-see!
Nope – and we’re not done with new listings this month. There will probably be another 10-20 homes go on the market before Friday (plus late-reporters).
It means that a surge of listings is in the works.
Our stager told Donna yesterday that she is already getting booked up for January. Our regular contractors have been voicing the same thing – they are very busy, and getting busier.
How about this as an indicator:
I already have three listings signed for January/February, and another 2-3 in the works. Never before have we had a January listing signed in October!
It means the first quarter of 2025 is going to be insane – a frenzy of inventory!
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This is very interesting news.
Sellers listing before an election and in the fall is odd.
I wonder what the driver is? Are banks starting to pressure deadbeats? Is it a herd mentality? Is there some kind of inventement that is better than housing? Do people feel interest rates will be higher in spring? Is politics somehow affecting home values?
The interest rates also have risen one percent in a month after the fed cut the rates. What do the higher interest rates and higher inventory mean for home prices?
I wonder what the driver is?
I think it’s a little bit of everything. Last week, I got started on my list here:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2024/10/22/inventory-surge-in-2025/
Of my sellers:
Two moving out of state, though both can afford to live here very comfortably.
One selling a rental property and will 1031 to another rental closer to them on east coast.
One selling a second home (already bought another vacation home so this is excess property)
One selling former primary residence and will take their tax-exempt $500,000 (already moved out of state)
Many out of state!
What do the higher interest rates and higher inventory mean for home prices?
I don’t think higher rates will mean anything for pricing around here.
You can bet that most buyers think they should matter, and will want to sit it out until they are proven right.
This is where the fun will begin in 2025.
The precursor is the number of sales. The superior homes will get gobbled up early and often, buyers will relent and more will date the rate and hope for the best. Pricing will probably suffer in the second half of 2025, like it is now.
Just watch sales.
Between La Jolla and Carlsbad there were 108 sales in January, 2024, and 157 in February.
If we hit those same numbers in 2025, it means the pricing/rates are acceptable, and we will be off to the races.
Here’s another tidbit.
There are 467 active listings today, which is about 30% higher than at this time last year.
There have also been 70 listings cancelled this month. And we still have 467!
We will be seeing virtually all of those 70 over the next 3-6 months, on top of the 300+ actives we will have on January 1st.