In light of the last blog post, let’s direct a renewed focus on the differences between the higher-end and lower-end markets. I have all the data going back for years, so give me a minute and I’ll split the presentations.
But we can already anticipate what’s coming just from the graph above.
The actives’ count is much higher than it has been in the last two years, but the pendings aren’t following. They’ve been steady, but now only just slightly above the number of 2023 pendings when the actives were about HALF of what they are today.
TWICE the inventory, and the same number of pendings?
But I’ll split the market this afternoon, and It’s likely we will find that it’s all driven by the high-end.
The $0 – $2,000,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 6, 2025 |
43 |
$918/sf |
63 |
27 |
| Jan 13 |
45 |
$936/sf |
53 |
22 |
| Jan 20 |
47 |
$908/sf |
54 |
25 |
| Jan 27 |
48 |
$904/sf |
48 |
32 |
| Feb 3 |
51 |
$914/sf |
47 |
41 |
| Feb 10 |
45 |
$935/sf |
46 |
45 |
| Feb 17 |
45 |
$916/sf |
46 |
46 |
| Feb 24 |
45 |
$958/sf |
48 |
40 |
| Mar 3 |
50 |
$950/sf |
37 |
42 |
| Mar 10 |
55 |
$908/sf |
36 |
45 |
| Mar 17 |
53 |
$891/sf |
35 |
50 |
| Mar 24 |
53 |
$898/sf |
30 |
51 |
| Mar 31 |
58 |
$878/sf |
35 |
44 |
The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 6, 2025 |
55 |
$1,029/sf |
66 |
36 |
| Jan 13 |
58 |
$990/sf |
63 |
31 |
| Jan 20 |
64 |
$1,018/sf |
57 |
26 |
| Jan 27 |
64 |
$1,025/sf |
53 |
31 |
| Feb 3 |
71 |
$1,009/sf |
50 |
31 |
| Feb 10 |
75 |
$1,005/sf |
46 |
36 |
| Feb 17 |
81 |
$1,015/sf |
44 |
39 |
| Feb 24 |
80 |
$1,012/sf |
38 |
52 |
| Mar 3 |
80 |
$1,034/sf |
33 |
49 |
| Mar 10 |
92 |
$1,029/sf |
37 |
44 |
| Mar 17 |
98 |
$1,015/sf |
39 |
44 |
| Mar 24 |
98 |
$1,008/sf |
41 |
52 |
| Mar 31 |
100 |
$997/sf |
44 |
54 |
The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 6, 2025 |
44 |
$1,091/sf |
82 |
19 |
| Jan 13 |
46 |
$1,122/sf |
77 |
19 |
| Jan 20 |
52 |
$1,156/sf |
70 |
16 |
| Jan 27 |
49 |
$1,197/sf |
67 |
20 |
| Feb 3 |
56 |
$1,182/sf |
55 |
21 |
| Feb 10 |
58 |
$1,158/sf |
51 |
25 |
| Feb 17 |
58 |
$1,179/sf |
54 |
24 |
| Feb 24 |
56 |
$1,168/sf |
52 |
24 |
| Mar 3 |
51 |
$1,147/sf |
56 |
31 |
| Mar 10 |
56 |
$1,240/sf |
61 |
34 |
| Mar 17 |
60 |
$1,209/sf |
61 |
36 |
| Mar 24 |
60 |
$1,209/sf |
62 |
39 |
| Mar 31 |
62 |
$1,158/sf |
64 |
34 |
The $4,000,000+ Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 6, 2025 |
160 |
$1,822/sf |
105 |
27 |
| Jan 13 |
156 |
$1,868/sf |
105 |
31 |
| Jan 20 |
170 |
$1,936/sf |
95 |
29 |
| Jan 27 |
180 |
$1,877/sf |
90 |
31 |
| Feb 3 |
189 |
$1,884/sf |
85 |
31 |
| Feb 10 |
189 |
$1,864/sf |
88 |
29 |
| Feb 17 |
192 |
$1,875/sf |
90 |
32 |
| Feb 24 |
195 |
$1,869/sf |
91 |
34 |
| Mar 3 |
200 |
$1,860/sf |
87 |
34 |
| Mar 10 |
213 |
$1,811/sf |
83 |
36 |
| Mar 17 |
208 |
$1,755/sf |
85 |
30 |
| Mar 24 |
211 |
$1,800/sf |
86 |
25 |
| Mar 31 |
213 |
$1,784/sf |
90 |
32 |
NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings
| Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
Total Actives |
Total Pendings |
| Jan 6 |
27 |
11 |
298 |
108 |
| Jan 13 |
38 |
26 |
301 |
101 |
| Jan 20 |
55 |
16 |
328 |
95 |
| Jan 27 |
60 |
32 |
337 |
113 |
| Feb 3 |
72 |
28 |
363 |
123 |
| Feb 10 |
50 |
34 |
364 |
135 |
| Feb 17 |
50 |
29 |
373 |
140 |
| Feb 24 |
58 |
38 |
374 |
148 |
| Mar 3 |
60 |
31 |
378 |
152 |
| Mar 10 |
60 |
30 |
411 |
156 |
| Mar 17 |
49 |
37 |
413 |
157 |
| Mar 24 |
57 |
39 |
414 |
164 |
| Mar 31 |
47 |
27 |
425 |
162 |
NSDCC List Price Quartiles
| Week |
1st Quartile |
Median List Price |
3rd Quartile |
| Jan 6 |
$2,685,000 |
$4,472,500 |
$7,995,000 |
| Jan 13 |
$2,499,000 |
$4,250,000 |
$7,750,000 |
| Jan 20 |
$2,695,000 |
$4,300,000 |
$7,767,000 |
| Jan 27 |
$2,795,000 |
$4,498,000 |
$7,995,000 |
| Feb 3 |
$2,695,000 |
$4,350,000 |
$7,499,000 |
| Feb 10 |
$2,799,000 |
$4,299,000 |
$7,695,000 |
| Feb 17 |
$2,695,000 |
$4,200,000 |
$7,750,000 |
| Feb 24 |
$2,699,500 |
$4,250,000 |
$7,645,000 |
| Mar 3 |
$2,550,000 |
$4,375,000 |
$7,497,000 |
| Mar 10 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,200,000 |
$7,250,000 |
| Mar 17 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,995,000 |
| Mar 24 |
$2,595,000 |
$4,047,500 |
$7,275,000 |
| Mar 31 |
$2,499,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$7,300,000 |
Any opinion on this closing? Seems at least $500k too high. And it went pending in a week.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14941-Tercer-Verde-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16761543_zpid/
Good-looking one-story with light-biege wide-plank hardwoods and solar on the golf course. It’s got all the best features.
Just pay the man.
Seniors with F-U money don’t care what you and I think. He just wants to make his little lady happy.
Stay tuned for our new listing when I go for the same buyer this weekend.