San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Nov.

January 25, 2022

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We can see how MoM pricing started to slow at end of summer, only to have it pick up again in 4Q21:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

Observation Month	SD CSI	M-o-M chg	Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20	264.04	+0.2%	+5.1%
Feb	265.34	+0.5%	+4.6%
Mar	269.63	+1.6%	+5.2%
Apr	272.48	+1.1%	+5.8%
May	273.51	+0.4%	+5.2%
Jun	274.91	+0.5%	+5.0%
Jul	278.00	+1.1%	+5.4%
Aug	283.06	+1.8%	+7.6%
Sep	288.11	+1.8%	+9.4%
Oct	292.85	+1.6%	+11.5%
Nov	295.64	+1.0%	+12.3%
Dec	297.52	+0.6%	+13.0%
Jan ’21	301.72	+1.4%	+14.3%
Feb	310.62	+2.9%	+17.1%
Mar	320.81	+3.3%	+19.1%
Apr	331.47	+3.3%	+21.6%
May	341.05	+2.9%	+24.7%
Jun	349.78	+2.6%	+27.2%
Jul	355.33	+1.6%	+27.8%
Aug	357.11	+0.5%	+26.2%
Sep	359.88	+0.8%	+24.9%
Oct	363.80	+1.1%	+24.2%
Nov	367.62	+1.1%	+24.3%

Mortgage rates didn’t move much in October and November, holding between 3% and 3.25% for the average on the popular 30-year fixed. While that was slightly higher than the early summer levels, it was still historically low and considerably lower than where rates are now. Rates are now about 75 basis points above year-ago levels. Low rates over the last two years have given buyers more purchasing power and consequently fueled today’s sky-high prices.

“We should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices,” added Lazzara.

A recent report from Realtor.com found that 14 out of the top 50 largest U.S. cities experienced listing price declines over the prior year in December.