Hat tip to long-time reader Todd who we saw at the game last night – we did bug out early, but it was only to pick up Kayla at the airport. The Padres walked it off in the 11th inning!
Meanwhile, people are wondering where the local real estate market is going to end up.
For conditions to change much, sellers would have to panic, and dump on price. Otherwise, we will just be taking a leisurely stroll through Plateau City, admiring all the homes that aren’t selling.
Here are the favorite zip codes around North County – SE Carlsbad (92009), Encinitas (92024), Carmel Valley (92130), and Rancho Santa Fe (92067).
A few months ago, we had the lowest number of active listings of all-time:
While lately the number of the active listings have been growing steadily, they would have to double from this point before getting into the danger zone – but we’re going to run out of time before that happens.
Now that doom is being broadcast everywhere, sellers will decide that ‘now isn’t a good time to sell’, and by August they will quit listing their homes for sale.
There are 396 NSDCC active listings today (and 180 pendings), and we might hit 500 before August, but that will be the peak for 2022.
The market won’t keep getting worse – it will just taper off for rest of the year as buyers AND sellers lose interest. Instead, we’ll be talking about the playoffs and our first-place Padres going to the World Series!
Padres to the series? Bank on it. In 1984 we had the pleasure of facing the Tigers who started off that year 35-5 and won 104 games. In 1998 we enjoyed taking on the Yankees with their .704 paltry 114 wins year. Maybe we can get them again on their current pace of .735 120 win season?
I don’t think we’ll ever get treated to say a 2010 season like SF (92 W) over the Rangers (90 W) or the 2012 season like the Giants (94 W) who got to face powerhouse Detroit and their (88 W) that year let alone the 2014 Giants (88 W) verus the mighty Royals (89 W). Nah…give us the Yankees again, only this time the best MLB team in history…not the 2nd best like that lousy 1998 Yankees team.
Great seeing you Jim! The wife makes sure we watch the last pitch of every game. Thank goodness for international tie breakers.
It seems there has been a huge drop in active listing in the second half of 2019. Well before the starting of the pandemic.
What do you think caused it?
….give us the Yankees again, only this time the best MLB team in history…not the 2nd best like that lousy 1998 Yankees team.
The first year we had season tickets was in 1998. Though we got swept by the Hankies in the WS, we thought the Padres would be back the next year – and several more times!
Glad to see these record crowds now (30,000+ fans for weeknight games against the D-backs?). This has to be our year!
What do you think caused it?
Thanks for asking, P. and thankfully hindsight is 20/20!
Here is the same graph but for sales – in spite of lower inventory, there were 30 more sales in 4Q19 than in 4Q18 (+8%)!
https://sdmls.stats.showingtime.com/infoserv/s-v1/LHRA-cxY
It appears to be the beginning of the not-moving-at-any-price era, with the responding better-buy-anything-I-can environment that was turbo-charged by the pandemic.
The second half of 2019 was when prices flatlined, and literally the January, 2020 Case-Shiller Index was only 0.1% higher than it was in July, 2019.
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2020/03/31/san-diego-case-shiller-jan/
But something doesn’t look right. The graph shows the active inventory in those four zip codes was 1,063 in July, 2019, and 566 the next month?
Yep, I think there is something wrong with their counts.
Mine are right….because I do them myself! 🙂
NSDCC Active Listings (La Jolla to Carlsbad, not just those four zips) On The Last Monday of the Month:
July, 2019: 1,029
August, 2019: 1,034
Either those four zips lost 497 listings in one month – and the other zips picked up 502 additional listings – or their counts are wrong.
I’m going with B.
Purchase activity was only 10% lower than in 2021, the most frenzied year in history? I’ll take it! But of course, these guys don’t mention that part:
“Mortgage rates continued to surge last week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumping 33 basis points to 5.98 percent – the highest since November 2008 and the largest single-week increase since 2009. All other loan types also increased by at least 20 basis points, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s
75-basis-point rate hike and commentary that more are coming to slow inflation,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Mortgage rates are now almost double what they were a year ago, leading to a 77 percent drop in refinance volume over the past 12 months.”
Added Kan, “Purchase applications increased for the second straight week – driven mainly by conventional applications – and the ARM share of applications jumped back to over 10 percent. However, purchase activity was still 10 percent lower than a year ago, as inventory shortages and higher mortgage rates are dampening demand. The average loan size, at just over $420,000, is well below its $460,000 peak earlier this year and is potentially a sign that home price-growth is moderating.”
Pads:
#3 overall attendance average home/away combined in ALL of baseball! Even higher than Yankees.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance/_/sort/allAvg
Thanks for the clarification!
We tend to assume that data from sources as SDML is always correct, also because it’s hard to find out how they computed their results and access the raw data. It’s extremely useful when expert in the field can validate or reject it.
Thanks for all the useful info you put daily out here!
You are welcome P. and thanks for inquiring! It takes a village.
When I first glanced at the graph, my immediate go-to was that big drop was covid-related. But as you pointed out, it was six months earlier!
I do love the fact that my weekly Inventory Watch can come back to help us now, years later. I’d like to give a hat tip to my dear friend and fellow door-knocker Gary Thompson, who encouraged me to keep going, and that this blog thing would pay off later. RIP Gary!