A reader asked to split the market at $3,000,000 and take a look around.

They made a good point.

All that matters is what’s happening in your neighborhood of interest.

Analyzing larger samples can only give us suspicious facts. I keep saying how another 15% to 20% increase in inventory is going to make buyers pause, but who cares. When trying to get a read on your favorite neighborhood, do the inventory/sales across town matter? Probably not, and they won’t matter to those buyers & sellers in your neighborhood either.

But until you hire me to discuss your favorite area, we gotta talk about something.

Main point: The Under-$3,000,000 market remains a hot ticket.

NSDCC Active Listings Under $3M: 156

Actives Median LP = $2,200,000

Actives Median LP/sf = $878/sf

NSDCC Pending Listings Under $3M: 98

NSDCC 2025 Sold Listings Under $3M Per Month: 86

There is only a two-month supply, the pricing metrics of the actives are close to the sold metrics, the actives-to-pending ratio is under the 2.0 healthy mark, and half of the recent sales have found their buyer within 18 days.

We can say that’s a hot market in 2025!

However, the Over-$3,000,000 market is a different story:

Over-$3,000,000 market is sluggish, and will likely remain that way.

NSDCC Active Listings Over $3M: 271

Actives Median LP = $5,995,000

Actives Median LP/sf = $1,230/sf

NSDCC Pending Listings Over $3M: 66

NSDCC 2025 Sold Listings Over $3M Per Month: 49

There is a SIX-month supply, the pricing metrics of the active listings are +20% to +40% over the sold metrics, the 4.1 actives-to-pending ratio is pushing the unhealthy zone, and even though the median days-on-market of the solds is a remarkable 36 days, two-thirds of the active listings have been on the market longer that that.

What’s the point? General assumptions are only good for trolling on twitter!