Distressed vs. Non

Market Conditions | North County Coastal | Short Sales | Thinking of Buying? | Thinking of Selling?

February 14, 2012

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Yesterday CR showed the breakdown of distressed sales year-over-year for different cities here.

Let’s look at our last six months, the period during which short-sale approvals have sped up, and compare to the previous year.

A comparison of NSDCC detached listings sold between August 15th and February 13th:

6 Mo.	# of Sales 2011/2012	Avg. $$/sf 2011/2012	% share
Non-D	910/930	$395/$390	81%/80%
Shorts	113/150	$323/$291	10%/13%
REOs	96/77	$306/$296	9%/7%
Totals	1,119/1,157	$380/$371

Here are the currently active detached listings in North SD County Coastal:

ACT	# of det. actives	Avg. LP $/sf	% share
Non-D	976	$620/sf	90%
Shorts	80	$302/sf	8%
REOs	26	$286/sf	2%
Totals	1,082	$588/sf

The conversion of REOs to short-sales appears to be underway, though the distressed properties are continuing to make up only about 20% of the sales. How many of the currently non-distressed listings will end up sliding into the other two categories? Probably 25% or so?

Don’t be surprised if REO listings dry up, and short-sales surge the rest of the year as we bear down on the expiration of the debt-tax-relief on 12/31/12. Will Congress extend? Could it end up being a political football in this election year? It should, so sellers know where they stand.