I was telling someone over the weekend how the local market has been smoking hot lately – at least for those sellers who list their home for a reasonable price.
He responded with a guffaw, and the usual indignation, “That’s not what I’ve been reading”.
Here are the current market statistics – except for the stubborn high-enders, the rest of these categories have more pendings + contingents than active listings. We haven’t seen that since the height of the frenzy in 2003 – and January sales were up too:
| Area | ACT | PEND+CONT | Jan’12 SOLD | Jan’11 SOLD |
| SD det&att | ||||
| SD det. | ||||
| NSDCC det. | ||||
| NSDCC det. $800K- | ||||
| NSDCC det. $800K+ |
Yes, I’m counting the contingents as pendings now, and it’s for two reasons. 1) They are getting approved quicker, and 2) with few other options, buyers are more likely to stick. If buyers do bail out on one contingent, it’ll be because they found another, so the pending/contingent count would stay the same. The numbers are somewhat bloated due to the short-sale backlog, but if the ACT/PEND+CONT counts were lower than 2:1 it would still be a healthy market.
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We have received four offers on the Lavender REO listing, in spite of two other Lavenders also listing last week, making it 4 of 17 properties for sale on the same street!
Thankfully they came on at higher prices, but none of them have the high-speed location that mine does 😆 >>>>>
I have probably received another 15-20 inquires about the listing, even though buyers and agents have full access to satellite photos and video tour. There is high demand in CV!
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For those who want more proof, examine these recent pendings/solds in Carmel Valley.
Most curious is the market time – a few houses that have sat for months have popped off lately, though this first one only lasted four days on market, listed higher than his 2006 purchase price (you’ll need a redfin account to see pendings):
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5200-Great-Meadow-Dr-92130/home/12153395
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4745-Vereda-Luz-Del-Sol-92130/home/6314447
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5035-Ashley-Falls-Ct-92130/home/4480733
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10865-Craven-Ridge-Way-92130/home/4523585
Closed sales:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5269-Foxborough-Pt-92130/home/12153367
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4715-Dunham-Ct-92130/home/6605312
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10670-Haven-Brook-Pl-92130/home/6315372
The bears can still hope that the high-end will be the next market to implode, and crush everybody below. It could happen, and as long as you are looking for doom and gloom, don’t forget Greece, Iran/Israel, Afghanistan, elections, the Padres – there’s plenty of bad news out there.
But apparently there are a load of buyers who are ready, willing, and able to take advantage of lower rates and prices – and aren’t reading in the right places?
If you are trying to sell and not having any luck, don’t blame the market – it is your price.
Yeah, but JtR what about…..(insert random anecdote)
And don’t discount the possibility of (link to some guy’s blog)
Until confidence returns in the…….(blah blah blah).
What do you think is the issue with this home, also in 92130? Same listing price as 2006, with pool+view, but no takers so far. I think you highlighted it in your blog a while back.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5680-Willowmere-Ln-92130/home/4526465
As a looker/potential buyer, I definitely noticed the long DOM homes going pending, including this one that RAISED the listing price and went pending a week later.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/13669-Winstanley-Way-92130/home/4473461
What remains to be seen is who actually compromised with the selling price – the buyers or the sellers? Any guesses? Based on your 1% per week metric, those homes should close at more than 10% off their asking prices.
Willowmere had some bad luck when a house in the same block but didn’t back to canyon just closed for $855,000.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5660-Willowmere-Ln-92130/home/4526461
The canyon premium doesn’t feel like $350,000-worth, and the pool is too big. But it is very salable and I wouldn’t be surprised if it sells.
The Winstanley sale was an interesting example.
I add some to the 1% metric.
Buyer expectations on what they are willing to pay are what’s going down 1% per week. Some sellers beat the odds.
As a buyer, I agree with you that my willingness to pay decreases at about that rate. What also tempers my enthusiasm are a couple of low priced head turners like this one that pretty much put a freeze on Pacific Highlands Ranch.
With this as a comp on arguably one of the nicest homes in PCH, it’ll be hard to justify paying over $1M for anything in the development.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5888-Blazing-Star-Ln-92130/home/17206224
jim, i’m not interested in the lavendar property, but i was interested in how long/how many bids you were going to take before you recommended to your client that they should take a particular offer. if you don’t want to spill the beans, you can talk about it more generally on what strategy you recommend to your selling clients.
like for instance, you get 2 offers in the first day, you might recommend to your client to keep the house on the market for at least 7 days to see what rolls in. i’m on the buying side and interested in the thinking behind the selling side. thanks!