We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
High end is going to behave very differently from the low end in the coming months. Let’s face it: there are genuine demands in the low end (whether it is from the frustrated renters or the investors), but there are no sustainable demands in the high end (less people can afford trade-up right now).
Rob- Welcome out of the Exurb, hopefully there will not be any C.S. sightings over here.
Obligatory mention of the Alt-A failure wave still pending. Not that it’ll be a real shock to the system, but with the way the government response is going so far (ie: prolong the agony), it should serve to extend the decline at least a few more years. SoCal is still very much above price/income norms, and nobody is doing anything to fix the shadow inventory problem, so expect the slow decline to continue for many months to come.
La Jolla has done a good job of delaying price discovery, but they won’t be able to prevent it from ultimately happening. Firstly, no real estate signs are allowed on lawns except the day of an open house. To know what’s for sale/rent/both, you need to look at the lock boxes on front doors. Take a stroll through a neighborhood like Muirlands West and the number of lock boxes you can count is astounding. Second, the foreclosed properties I’ve been following do not appear on the MLS or search engines as foreclosed, but just as for sale.
If all the money supply increases by Helicopter Ben eventually trickle up into inflation, mortgage rates could rise significantly. That would sure put a damper on the market…
Temecula_Guy,
I agree. The hit to the high end will be the lack of demand under the new lending standards.
Just a Broker,
Nope, not here but there is one “elsewhere.” JtR is funny enough with his deadpan JimTV productions. he doesn’t need a sidekick. Jim has challenged me to put up a DawgTV but I’m not sure I can compete.
Nick,
Consider that whether accidental or purposeful, the resets are at very low rates. While there may be recast shock, there won’t be much in the way of interest rate shock.
N.B. NOT JtR
Rob Dawg in charge of Jim’s blog for a week? What is this world coming to? Should be an interesting
week!
Alt-A, jumbo prime and CRE.
CRE will fail first look at the wave of empty stores, empty offices and
empty malls.
Let’s see:
Unemployment here in California headed to 15% (if you believe official figures).
Interest rates headed up as monetizing the debt fails.
Imminent bankruptcy for the State of California as tax revenue plummets.
Continuing emigration of high earners and producers from the state.
Yes, it’s clear that the storm is just beginning. Real Estate is toast.
Hmmmmm You get 20% less RANDS for a DOLLAR today than last year. I think South Africas government is printing RANDS at approximately the same rate as last year. If this means the US government has stepped up the printing of DOLLARS does that mean that inflation in the US will be heading North and property with a fixed rate mortgage will again become a hard asset?
Check what happened in history (the 70’s) for the last time the US was paying for an overseas war (Vietnam) with borrowed money during a recession. Inflation was terrible and those who bought hard assets made a killing.
Good luck running the blog Rob!
I’m not referring to interest rate shock, I’m referring to neg-am type mortgages which will be resetting to full-am. Even with a 4% interest rate, most people couldn’t pay for the homes they bought between 2004 and 2007 on Alt-A loans, and I’m betting most of them know it. There’s no reason to get out early if you’re already under-water: hold until reset, negotiate with the bank them (and/or take advantage of whatever government pay-down “free money from people who didn’t buy something they couldn’t afford” programs are available from the corrupt scum running the country), live rent-free for a year or so, and default if you can’t get a bailout. No reason to rush things when Uncle Sam is subsidizing the bill for your McMansion by mortgaging the future of the children of people not getting handouts like you are… it’s the new American way, right?
Also, I agree with Kelja’s sentiment… the state is pretty much toast. However, there’s no bankruptcy protection for states, and no political will to decrease spending (and it’s already too late for the most part), so look for massive tax/fee hikes in California once the budget tricks and “voluntary” tax-hike propositions fail. This won’t impact housing any more than other industries and areas, but look for an accelerated exodus of working individuals from this ongoing experiment in industrial suicide under a socialist regime.
Alt-A, jumbo prime and CRE.
CRE will fail first look at the wave of empty stores, empty offices and
empty malls.
patb | May 11th, 2009 at 12:05 pm
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Bingo!
BTW, congrats on the promotion Rob Dawg!
When will the Rob Dawg put up the pictures I grew accustomed to seeing on his site? Anybody keeping track on plastic surgery or Botox sales? On one hand, I would think there is less disposable income to keep up with an injection schedule. But on the other maybe Botox or enhancements are just what the Dr. ordered to give a boost to the psyche.
It’s about to be raining Nikes.
westwest888: Take a look at what’s happening to Ridgegate on the outskirts of La Jolla. It’ll work its way west.
Conservation during the photo shoot: “Mom always liked you better …….no she didn’t…….yes she did……no she didn’t (pause) ok, she didn’t………yes she did!”
Caution. I’ve met Mrs. Jim the Realtor. Worse; Mrs. Dawg has met Mrs. Jim the Realtor. That fear alone will keep us in line.
Not to worry. JtR will be gone a week. I’m not going to go too far off the reservation until later. Besides, I know full well Mrs. JtR will make sure I toe the line via Mrs. Dawg if necessary.
N.B. NOT JtR
Whew! That’s a relief. Mrs. JtR is one fabulous woman, but I suspect if you’re messing with her future, she (and Mrs Dawg) will kick your bu** without blinking an eye.
Great question, R.D. I, for one am actually surprised that the high end has held out this long. Many nice, older areas have had their sales trickle to virtually nothing, but the “prices are holding.”
My bet: Unemployment is still rising; CRE is starting to look as if it’s on life supprt and the currently-exurburent-but-actually-a-suckers-rally stock market is overdue for a downward-trend correction. All these things will make an impression on even the high end before the autumn.
BTW, you look much older in the picture than I thought!
Prediction
1) CA budget issues will force talk of spending reductions
2) Guvenator will not win re-election
3) CA prop tax hikes (3rd rail of CA politics) will be discussed and kill the political career of someone running for office
4) CA will eventually rank last in education, infrastructure quality
5) Another bubble will occur (3,5,10 yrs?) and people will forget this recession as we all invest in internet, beanie-baby eco-fuels
Re: Earthquakes.
You live in Oxnard, Ventura County. Go over to Ventura, go to the Mission, turn around & walk across the lawn to the county historical society. Enter. Walk through the reception room into the first main room. Turn around. Look at the large map on the wall behind you, which, if I recall is dated 1820. You will be surprised.
The next shoe to drop in CA will be state, county & local government budget cuts. They don’t have the revenue and won’t have the revenue, no matter how much they raise taxes.
Rob,
Welcome!
So…do you look like Jim?
Here is a great observation about the higher end. I’ll let you make your own decision.
I live in the north of OC, so this ziprealty search is in my area.
***
2750+ home, 7500+ lot, price 500K -> 800K.
***
This produces 51 listings. This total INCLUDES 4 foreclosures, and 19 short sales.
With ~50% of the active listings in distress, make your own opinion on which way the move up market is going…
Cheers!
VirtualChris
Rob,
Welcome!
So…do you look like Jim?
LoL! I knew this would be fun. I’m a year younger and look ten years older. The only thing we have in common is a passion for truth in the real estate universe.
N.B NOT JtR.
Right now it’s Obama as Noah building Arks.
But when the food comes the Arks will be found to have holes in them,
Coconutz!
Right now it’s Obama as Noah building Arks.
But when the FLOOD comes the Arks will be found to have holes in them, Sorry I drink and post…
Coconutz!
The next shoe to drop in CA will be state, county & local government budget cuts. They don’t have the revenue and won’t have the revenue, no matter how much they raise taxes.
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You nailed it, tj (again). 😉
State and municipal unions are being hit hard for concessions, and they are giving them — layoffs, hiring freezes, wage and benefit reductions, reduced staffing, and the reversal of class-size reduction, etc. CalPERS/CalSTRS are in trouble. The conversations being held right now inside these govt entities is very dire. Still, these concessions will not stem the tide of muni (and state?) defaults that I believe are coming (just my personal opinion). Strap on your seatbelts!
CalPERS/CalSTRS are in trouble
Look at the long-term fiscal bleed-out being done to San Diego by their “mismanaged” pension plan to get an idea of the 10+ year strangulation that will be caused by these entities pushing their way to the head of the budget queue every year with their legally locked-in requests for top-up funding.
(“Mismanaged” is in quotes because this was not a ‘mistake’ or an ‘error’ but a well-designed rip-off operation, with the principals all safely enriched, out of office, or otherwise out of reach.)