The prime-time selling season runs from Super Bowl Sunday to the Fourth of July. How has your area been doing?
We should start seeing some of the unsuccessful sellers figure it out, and either cancel their listing, or lower their price over the next 30-45 days.
Here are the active detached listings for each area, the percentage of them that have been on the market for 90 days or more, the June Y-O-Y closings, and the change percentage in sales:
| Town or Area | Zip Code | ACT | %90+ | SOLD June 08/09 | % chg. |
| Cardiff | 92007 | 45 | 38% | -60% | |
| Carlsbad NW | 92008 | 69 | 45% | -13% | |
| Carlsbad SE | 92009 | 133 | 29% | +11% | |
| Carlsbad NE | 92010 | 37 | 38% | +88% | |
| Carlsbad SW | 92011 | 95 | 39% | -24% | |
| Del Mar | 92014 | 141 | 70% | +20% | |
| Encinitas | 92024 | 190 | 68% | -5% | |
| La Jolla | 92037 | 293 | 48% | +33% | |
| O-side W. | 92054 | 68 | 21% | -35% | |
| O-side S. | 92056 | 63 | 20% | +4% | |
| O-side N. | 92057 | 95 | 28% | -6% | |
| Poway | 92064 | 120 | 52% | +17% | |
| RSF | both | 345 | 62% | -67% | |
| San Mrcs N. | 92069 | 51 | 20% | -10% | |
| San Mrcs S. | 92078 | 80 | 26% | +15% | |
| Solana Bch | 92075 | 82 | 32% | +40% | |
| Vista S. | 92081 | 50 | 16% | -17% | |
| Vista M. | 92083 | 33 | 13% | +45% | |
| Vista N. | 92084 | 82 | 38% | +36% | |
| Sorrento | 92121 | 7 | 14% | 25% | |
| West RB | 92127 | 164 | 74% | -13% | |
| RB | 92128 | 86 | 26% | +10% | |
| RP | 92129 | 48 | 13% | +7% | |
| Carmel Vly | 92130 | 217 | 75% | -21% | |
| Scripps Rch | 92131 | 71 | 20% | +58% |
In bold: Triple-digit active listings, with more than half of those on the market for more than 90 days, and double-digit drop in Y-O-Y sales (beware!)
In italics:Actives = 10x last month’s solds (beware!)
Look at Rancho Santa Fe: 345 actives, and four sales last month! 86-month inventory!
Are there even 1000 home in all of Rancho Sante Fe 2 zips? That 345 actives number is huge, being chased closely by La Jolla at 293 actives. Should be some interesting fallout in the next 3-6 months
Sooner of later, enough McMansions will get shoved through the foreclosure process, and the high-end areas will take a hit too.
Yet in less expensive places like Vista, there’s almost no supply at all. Barely a month’s worth in 92083, for example. It would be interesting to see a comparison between amount of supply, measured in months, and median house value for these ZIP codes. I’ll bet that there would be extremely strong correlation, with the lowest priced areas having the least supply and the highest priced areas having the most supply.
Nothing in the high end that price won’t fix.
doughboy-The census bureau says that in 2000, there were 1,339 housing units in Rancho Santa Fe, although it appears that the census bureau doesn’t count all of 92067 as being within RSF, so the actual total is probably slightly higher. But even if it’s 2,000 houses (and a few condos), say, that’s completely ridiculous that one out of six is currently for sale. That being said, I only see 192 listings on Redfin for RSF, not 345-and that includes plots of vacant land. If you remove the land sales, there’s only 134 listings. If you remove condos, short sales, and under contract, you are down to 122 standard or REO sales of houses.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rancho_Santa_Fe,_California
…not that there are a lot of REOs or short sales in RSF-yet.
Redfin also shows a grand total of 17 sales (16 houses, one condo, no plots of land) in RSF in the past six months.
It’s a mixed bag isn’t it? Look at Del Mar and N. Oceanside.
I too was wondering how much of the existing inventory in these zip codes is for sale.
There’s plenty of weird pricing to go around
Most houses in 92067 zip code are not part of Rancho Santa Fe CDP (census designated place).
According to SANDAG, there were 3,725 single family detached housing units in 92067 and 214 single family detached units in 92091, as of January 1, 2008.
Generally speaking, zip code boundaries are poorly defined in that area. SANDAG uses one definition, redfin uses a slightly different one, USPS disagrees with both. Realtors tend to err on the side of RSF (use 92067 zip code whenever possible) – that adds value.
Redfin shows 291 detached listings in 92067 and 177 results in 92091, but their definitions overlap, and there’s a bunch of listings with 92067 in the address outside either of those definitions. E.g. 14732 Las Quintas and 15312 Las Planideras.
It’s always a great time to buy real estate in california, you cant go wrong folks.There is a bull market somewhere.Buy now why you can.famous last words of my last realtor.
Jim,
What about the short sale properties? Are those counted in your active detached listings columns? In SEH there are so few active listings but it seems there are a lot of listings marked contigent and aren’t coming up as active. I get very confused.
Jim,
I believe that Del Mar should be in italics.
Also it would be interesting to add a column that shows the ratio: (ACT) / (# SOLD June ’09)
thanks for the data
Oh and Cardiff should be italics too, unless you’re only doing ones with triple digit ACT
Geotpf:
Today’s MLS count for detached in 92067:
$0.00-$1.99: 47
$2.00-$2.99: 86
$3.00-$3.99: 62
$4.00-$4.99: 26
$5.00-$5.99: 17
$6.00-$6.99: 19
$7.00-$7.99: 16
$8.00-$10.0: 13
$10.0-$35.0: 22
Total: 308
In 92091 there are 37 detached actives, and 28 of them are in the Bridges, where everyone is struggling to stay above $2.0:
$1.99-$2.99: 13
$3.00-$3.99: 6
$4.00-$4.99: 4
$5.00-$5.99: 3
$7.00-$7.00: 2
308 + 37 = 345
Not sure what Redfin is looking at, but there’s no duplication between zips. There are plenty of other zips that are RSF-ish (Crosby, 92014 and 92075 properties east of I-5, etc.).
Here’s a tour of the $35,000,000 estate:
http://www.ynrclients.com/client/RanchoLosArboles.html
“Yet in less expensive places like Vista, there’s almost no supply at all. Barely a month’s worth in 92083, for example. It would be interesting to see a comparison between amount of supply, measured in months, and median house value for these ZIP codes.”
The market is strong in areas where prices have dropped 50%, and is almost nonexistent elsewhere. I wonder what comes next in those areas?
First-half Y-O-Y
Half/# of sales/$-per-sf/DOM
92067
1H08 68 $615 104
1H09 45 $493 129
-20% $/sf
92091
1H08 9 $571 81
1H09 7 $428 161
-25% $/sf
92037
1H08 100 $865 86
1H09 90 $709 93
-18% $/sf
92130
1H08 180 $362 51
1H09 148 $341 61
-6% $/sf
92014
1H08 49 $733 99
1H09 52 $708 95
-3% $/sf
Include the 12 closings in June, and I’ll give Del Mar a pass.
here is a chart, listed from best to worst, showing (ACT) / (# Sold June 09), based on Jim’s data shown above.
sorry for the sloppy formatting
Area…………ACT/June
Vista M………1.14
O-side S……..1.26
Sorrento……..1.40
RP…………..1.50
San Mrcs S……1.70
San Mrcs N……1.82
RB…………..1.95
O-side N……..2.11
Scripps Rch…..2.37
Carlsbad NE…..2.47
Vista S………2.50
Vista N………2.73
Poway………..2.86
O-side W……..3.40
Carlsbad SE…..3.41
West RB………4.69
Encinitas…….5.28
Carlsbad NW…..5.31
Carmel Vly……7.00
Carlsbad SW…..7.31
Solana Bch…..11.71
Del Mar……..11.75
La Jolla…….14.65
Cardiff……..22.50
RSF…………86.25
The market is strong in areas where prices have dropped 50%, and is almost nonexistent elsewhere. I wonder what comes next in those areas?
Not just 50% drops, but the lowest-end areas overall — because those are the only places most people can afford now (despite still generationally low rates).
Is it ethical for my realtor to shag the listing agent?
better your realtor shags the listing agent than either of them shags you.
Jim,
You been hiding inside during all this good weather? I’m seriously jonesing for one of your videos!
I’m ready for more video too. Alot more fun to watch than data tables 🙂
nicely done, T, nicely done.
Plenty of OPTs in Solana Beach. Meanwhile, reasonably-priced rentals here are flying off craigslist. Most of them don’t even last a week.
-Erica
Speaking of Solana Beach, Jim, it looks like your listing on Glenmont has some competition from a newly listed unit in the nearby gated complex of Beachaus. $450 monthy HOA though is pretty steep for such a small community.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090038741-188_Solana_Point_Cir_Solana_Beach_CA_92075
What are your thoughts on this fine piece of real estate in Del Mar?
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071064797-929_Border_Ave_Del_Mar_CA_92014
It’s been on the market for almost 2 years with no price reduction.
Thanks for all the work you’ve put into this, Jim. It speaks volumes…