Written by Jim the Realtor

November 18, 2014

projected mortgage rates1

Freddie Mac is predicting a safe and comfortable 3% appreciation next year, but we haven’t seen mortgage rates above 4.5% since mid-2011. What do you think?

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/11172014_economic_forecasts.asp

Zillow 2015 Appreciation Forecast
Del Mar
+5.5%
Carlsbad
+2.7%
La Jolla
+2.7%
Solana Beach
+2.7%
San Diego
+1.7%
Encinitas
+0.6%
RSF
+0.4%
Carmel Valley
+0.3%

Z

11 Comments

  1. Jim the Realtor

    I said NSDCC prices would be flat, Rob Dawg said any gains would be in the first half of the year, and Mozart said +7.20% which was a little above the last reading of the SD Case-Shiller Index:

    September 2013:

    Number of sales = 259
    Median sales price = $1,110,000
    Average sales price = $1,448,326
    Average sf = 3,173sf
    Average Days on Market = 47 days
    Average cost-per-sf = $467.09/sf
    Median cost-per-sf = $384.12/sf

    September 2014:

    Number of sales = 235
    Median sales price = $1,090,000
    Average sales price = $1,409,692
    Average sf = 3,017sf
    Average Days on Market = 49 days
    Average cost-per-sf = $475.79/sf
    Median cost-per-sf = $396.53/sf

  2. Jiji

    I was just quoted 3.9 % fixed 30 year zero points

  3. James

    I believe we will have QE 4 before you know it. I work in 11 states and appraisals are coming in low across the country, as comps age out.

  4. Jim the Realtor

    C.A.R. predicted 6% price appreciation for 2014. Here is their 2015 forecast:

    LOS ANGELES (Oct. 7) – With more available homes on the market for sale, California’s housing market will see fewer investors and a return to traditional home buyers as home sales rise modestly and prices flatten out in 2015, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2015 California Housing Market Forecast,” released today.

    The C.A.R. forecast sees an increase in existing home sales of 5.8 percent next year to reach 402,500 units, up from the projected 2014 sales figure of 380,500 homes sold. Sales in 2014 will be down 8.2 percent from the 414,300 existing, single-family homes sold in 2013.

    The average for 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates will rise only slightly to 4.5 percent but will still remain at historically low levels.

    The California median home price is forecast to increase 5.2 percent to $478,700 in 2015, following a projected 11.8 percent increase in 2014 to $455,000. This is the slowest rate of price appreciation in four years.

    “With the U.S. economy expected to grow more robustly than it has in the past five years and housing inventory continuing to improve, California housing sales and prices will see a modest upward trend in 2015,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “While the Fed will likely end its quantitative easing program by the end of this year, it has had minimal impact on interest rates, which should only inch up slightly and remain low throughout 2015. This should help moderate the decline in housing affordability we saw occur over the past two years.”

    http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/2014releases/859066?view=Standard

  5. livinincali

    I’m guessing slightly negative year over year. If the economy is weak and the fed does do QE 4 it’s because we’re looking at a recession. If the fed raises rates because the economy is doing better that hurts the housing market. I do think rates will stay low and we’ll likely be in some kind of recession next year. Housing will probably do ok relative to everything else.

  6. Mozart

    I guessed 7.2% last year.

    This time I’ll say 4.5% year over year, end of September 2015. Somewhat of a slow down more typical of seasonal numbers early in the year then a steady rise next summer. Basically a steadily improving economy. Nothing too exciting going on, (thankfully).

  7. Jim the Realtor

    Lots of upside potential too. Did you see the note yesterday that 40% of MLS participants haven’t had a sale this year? Nothing but blue sky ahead for them.

  8. Name

    Bring on the 2010 price.

  9. Jiji

    ” MLS participants ” being Realtor’s ?

    Not enough new homes being built.

    It’s all about building and zoning.

  10. Jim the Realtor

    The MLS participants include licensees who are part of a team. Their sales are logged under the team-leader’s name to fluff up the team stats.

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