from sddt.com:
Notices of default and trustee deeds fell a combined 22 percent in November from October.
Data from the San Diego County Assessor showed trustee deeds — the last step in the foreclosure process — dipped 17 percent from October to 1,128. Year over year, trustee deeds are down 1 percent.
The number of NODs filed was down nearly 25 percent to 2,182 last month.
Despite the month-to-month drop, November nearly doubled the number of NODs filed in the same month last year when there was a foreclosure moratorium in place from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The month-to-month dips can be attributed to some seasonal declines. On average, over the past five years, foreclosure filings have fallen 10 percent from October to November.
Year to date, there have been 4,189 fewer trustee’s deeds filed this year than 2008.
Even with declining foreclosure numbers, the local foreclosure rate is historically high.
In the first 11 months of 2009, there have been 13,988—that’s 20 percent more trustee’s deeds filed with the county than the annual totals of 2005, 2006 and 2007 combined.
The high number of foreclosures has led to increased activity in the housing market over the past year. “I think we’re accepting a new normalcy around these market dynamics,” said Goldman.
According to Foreclosure Radar, an online foreclosure tracking tool, homes sold at trustee’s sales in October were up more than five times what they were in October 2008.
The 339 homes sold at trustee’s sales last month made up one-fourth of the 1,356 trustee’s deeds filed with the county in October.
“These are bad times, but there are opportunites,” said Goldman.
Well here we are back to interest rate adjusted 1989 prices in the san dieguito school district.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090053505-3335_Venado_Carlsbad_CA_92009
11/24/2009 $962,500 20y 3m 57% 2%
08/07/1989 $615,000 2y 8m 64% 20%
This house on a monthly payment basis at 4-5% is cheaper to own than it was in 1989 at 9-10% and it has had significant upgrades since 1989 to boot. This isn’t a lost decade it is two lost decades. This analysis doesn’t even consider inflation in which case the situation is even uglier. How much worse can it get for Carlsbad?
$962k seems pretty expensive for a house that far inland. Do you know how hard it is to earn $962k? Most people don’t earn that much in their lifetime. If I were to buy a house for $962k I’d make sure it was near the ocean, not in some developer trumped up “exclusive” neighborhood.
When doing your monthly payment calculation did you consider that your property taxes will be nearly $1000 month?
For simplicity let us assume 100% financing. At 962.5k and 5% your monthly payment is $5166.91. At 615k and 10% your monthly payment is $5397.07. At 962.5k your monthly taxes at 1.2% are $962.50. At 615k your monthly taxes at 1.2% are $615.
So if you bought in 2009 your payment is $6129.41.
and if you bought in 1989 your payment is $6012.07.
You are correct it is actually costs $117.34 a month more to buy it today than it did 20 years ago. Let’s throw in the new backyard and kitchen and call it even?
A 22% drop in NODs and Trustee sales? Isn’t that directly attributable to the extend-pretend of these loan mods?
pemeliza: great empirical example!
as much of housing bear that i am, your example suggests that the carlsbad pricing is reasonable (assuming no other mitigating idiosyncratic factors). i would gladly accept the same implied pricing in santa monica. 🙂
I wonder how much of the drop is due to third parties sitting on the trustee deeds until they are able to flip the house?
Everywhere I look, the data show an extremely constrained inventory. Not fun if you are a buyer.
Well 1989 was the peak of another bouble, so not exactly the best year to use as a reference for SD .
I would argue the risks are so much higher right now than they were 20 years ago. With rates at 10%, the government still had room to cut rates (which they always do when we enter a slowdown), which would allow you to re-finance and give yourself relief during a recessionary period.
Right now, the government no room left to cut and is even out there buying up every mortgage in sight in order to move the rates to artificially low levels. They are effectively “all-in”.
Now, I’m not saying they won’t succeed in stabilizing prices, but if you had to handicap your odds, wouldn’t you rather a lower price / higher interest rate scenario?
What I hate is how government subsidies and policies have distorted a market that should be more about making in investment in building a life in a community, not speculating on economic growth/inflation, etc.
What ‘Renting in SD’ said.
Stop bailing out banks and dumb real estate owners / speculators.
I agree with renting in SD …. much more risk with a higher purhcase price. price stabilization should be looked at from a purchase price perspective, not the monthly payment amount.