Inventory Watch

Inventory | Jim's Take on the Market | Spring Kick

April 6, 2015

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Mortgage rates on Friday dropped back to 3.62% (avg. jumbo was 3.57%!), which should help fuel the final Spring Kick of the selling season. The end of the school year is within sight, and there are lots of lookers. My listing on Monroe in Old Carlsbad was shown steadily for the first three weeks on the market, but no offers. Then we got three over Easter weekend!

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
November 25	95	$376/sf	47	1,988sf
December 2	79	$371/sf	50	2,047sf
December 9	72	$383/sf	43	1,954sf
December 16	81	$378/sf	42	1,948sf
December 23	77	$374/sf	49	1,937sf
December 30	76	$373/sf	51	1,950sf
January 6	74	$370/sf	49	1,995sf
January 13	71	$381/sf	44	1,921sf
January 20	72	$384/sf	41	1,877sf
January 27	75	$399/sf	40	1,891sf
February 3	78	$409/sf	41	1,876sf
February 10	82	$395/sf	38	1,927sf
February 17	85	$387/sf	35	1,929sf
February 24	90	$383/sf	37	2,008sf
March 3	82	$397/sf	39	1,942sf
March 10	88	$377/sf	37	2,008sf
March 17	89	$366/sf	34	2,038sf
March 24	79	$369/sf	34	2,031sf
March 31	78	$367/sf	39	2,069sf
April 7	87	$373/sf	32	2,054sf
April 14	97	$380/sf	31	2,000sf
April 21	87	$377/sf	32	2,062sf
April 28	107	$379/sf	29	2,044sf
May 5	114	$376/sf	27	2,046sf
May 12	108	$385/sf	31	2,012sf
May 19	107	$385/sf	0	0sf
May 26	105	$375/sf	34	0sf
Jun 2	102	$376/sf	36	0sf
Jun 9	102	$377/sf	37	0sf
Jun 16	104	$369/sf	35	0sf
Jun 23	111	$380/sf	34	0sf
Jun 30	119	$376/sf	36	0sf
Jul 7	122	$387/sf	36	0sf
Jul 14	127	$388/sf	34	0sf
Jul 21	135	$381/sf	36	0sf
Jul 28	144	$382/sf	37	0sf
Aug 4	148	$379/sf	39	0sf
Aug 11	135	$375/sf	42	0sf
Aug 25	135	$374/sf	43	0sf
Sep 1	126	$377/sf	46	0sf
Sep 8	130	$375/sf	46	0sf
Sep 15	134	$369/sf	45	0sf
Sep 22	127	$376/sf	49	0sf
Sep 29	132	$378/sf	48	0sf
Oct 6	130	$367/sf	48	0sf
Oct 13	131	$378/sf	44	0sf
Oct 20	130	$385/sf	45	0sf
Oct 27	128	$375/sf	48	0sf
Nov 3	128	$371/sf	49	0sf
Nov 10	126	$366/sf	52	0sf
Nov 17	115	$367/sf	51	0sf
Nov 24	122	$373/sf	46	2,007sf
Dec 1	113	$375/sf	46	2,007sf
Dec 8	113	$372/sf	50	2,028sf
Dec 15	108	$366/sf	53	2,053sf
Dec 22	101	$364/sf	52	2,044sf
Dec 29	92	$365/sf	57	2,019sf
Jan 5	84	$363/sf	56	1,992sf
Jan 12	88	$372/sf	55	1,976sf
Jan 19	86	$394/sf	49	2,172sf
Jan 26	81	$406/sf	52	2,142sf
Feb 2	87	$400/sf	48	2,126sf
Feb 9	83	$389/sf	47	2,175sf
Feb 16	77	$401/sf	49	2,152sf
Feb 23	77	$413/sf	42	2,141sf
Mar 2	70	$379/sf	43	1,945sf
Mar 9	65	$370/sf	51	2,003sf
Mar 16	69	$386/sf	47	2,063sf
Mar 23	84	$379/sf	40	2,066sf
Mar 30	79	$381/sf	39	2,087sf
Apr 6	81	$385/sf	34	2,058sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
November 25	245	$448/sf	61	2,856sf
December 2	239	$448/sf	64	2,851sf
December 9	226	$461/sf	65	2,812sf
December 16	211	$464/sf	66	2,794sf
December 23	197	$453/sf	73	2,813sf
December 30	173	$450/sf	78	2,821sf
January 6	170	$470/sf	65	2,757sf
January 13	168	$463/sf	59	2,764sf
January 20	174	$444/sf	51	2,882sf
January 27	166	$435/sf	52	2,902sf
February 3	165	$441/sf	53	2,857sf
February 10	175	$443/sf	51	2,852sf
February 17	180	$447/sf	50	2,803sf
February 24	188	$438/sf	44	2,846sf
March 3	202	$421/sf	44	2,936sf
March 10	215	$431/sf	41	2,854sf
March 17	223	$421/sf	42	2,918sf
March 24	217	$419/sf	42	2,941sf
March 31	223	$425/sf	44	2,887sf
April 7	224	$428/sf	44	2,881sf
April 14	233	$429/sf	44	2,892sf
April 21	237	$432/sf	44	2,894sf
April 28	240	$430/sf	45	2,848sf
May 5	272	$434/sf	42	2,838sf
May 12	269	$438/sf	42	2,831sf
May 19	275	$436/sf	0	0sf
May 26	276	$429/sf	49	0sf
Jun 2	270	$431/sf	50	0sf
Jun 9	292	$454/sf	52	0sf
Jun 16	299	$443/sf	52	0sf
Jun 23	304	$437/sf	51	0sf
Jun 30	304	$431/sf	53	0sf
Jul 7	307	$423/sf	55	0sf
Jul 14	297	$421/sf	54	0sf
Jul 21	310	$410/sf	53	0sf
Jul 28	329	$411/sf	53	0sf
Aug 4	337	$415/sf	52	0sf
Aug 11	336	$420/sf	51	0sf
Aug 25	318	$428/sf	55	0sf
Sep 1	310	$426/sf	56	0sf
Sep 8	306	$427/sf	56	0sf
Sep 15	312	$434/sf	57	0sf
Sep 22	315	$435/sf	60	0sf
Sep 29	308	$443/sf	59	0sf
Oct 6	304	$435/sf	60	0sf
Oct 13	304	$432/sf	61	0sf
Oct 20	311	$440/sf	62	0sf
Oct 27	301	$434/sf	64	0sf
Nov 3	293	$435/sf	62	0sf
Nov 10	286	$433/sf	64	0sf
Nov 17	275	$433/sf	66	0sf
Nov 24	256	$431/sf	69	2,948sf
Dec 1	253	$433/sf	71	2,956sf
Dec 8	247	$435/sf	74	2,937sf
Dec 15	241	$436/sf	77	2,920sf
Dec 22	221	$439/sf	81	2,887sf
Dec 29	200	$442/sf	87	2,871sf
Jan 5	181	$436/sf	83	2,890sf
Jan 12	182	$433/sf	76	2,889sf
Jan 19	193	$445/sf	71	2,948sf
Jan 26	189	$456/sf	67	2,881sf
Feb 2	202	$449/sf	67	2,918sf
Feb 9	208	$452/sf	65	2,945sf
Feb 16	211	$443/sf	65	2,952sf
Feb 23	203	$450/sf	67	2,910sf
Mar 2	200	$438/sf	59	2,885sf
Mar 9	222	$436/sf	53	2,860sf
Mar 16	221	$431/sf	53	2,894sf
Mar 23	206	$432/sf	54	2,900sf
Mar 30	202	$420/sf	53	2,880sf
Apr 6	206	$418/sf	53	2,870sf

The $1,400,000 – $2,400,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
November 25	227	$580/sf	81	3,692sf
December 2	222	$588/sf	85	3,653sf
December 9	219	$586/sf	87	3,636sf
December 16	211	$593/sf	88	3,627sf
December 23	196	$601/sf	94	3,581sf
December 30	190	$597/sf	100	3,591sf
January 6	175	$595/sf	97	3,594sf
January 13	184	$600/sf	92	3,590sf
January 20	187	$589/sf	83	3,663sf
January 27	195	$589/sf	80	3,649sf
February 3	196	$573/sf	78	3,730sf
February 10	205	$583/sf	76	3,687sf
February 17	216	$582/sf	72	3,729sf
February 24	211	$584/sf	77	3,744sf
March 3	221	$585/sf	78	3,761sf
March 10	228	$585/sf	77	3,740sf
March 17	217	$584/sf	75	3,744sf
March 24	231	$584/sf	73	3,742sf
March 31	232	$569/sf	71	3,750sf
April 7	230	$569/sf	71	3,753sf
April 14	233	$564/sf	69	3,748sf
April 21	244	$563/sf	67	3,780sf
April 28	238	$566/sf	66	3,757sf
May 5	247	$571/sf	61	3,746sf
May 12	251	$559/sf	64	3,782sf
May 19	256	$562/sf	0	0sf
May 26	263	$552/sf	69	0sf
Jun 2	261	$561/sf	69	0sf
Jun 9	273	$566/sf	70	0sf
Jun 16	276	$571/sf	70	0sf
Jun 23	289	$581/sf	70	0sf
Jun 30	292	$594/sf	72	0sf
Jul 7	288	$588/sf	74	0sf
Jul 14	290	$590/sf	72	0sf
Jul 21	277	$578/sf	74	0sf
Jul 28	271	$579/sf	71	0sf
Aug 4	269	$586/sf	70	0sf
Aug 11	276	$571/sf	71	0sf
Aug 25	271	$579/sf	81	0sf
Sep 1	265	$581/sf	82	0sf
Sep 8	270	$580/sf	80	0sf
Sep 15	279	$575/sf	82	0sf
Sep 22	281	$563/sf	83
Sep 29	278	$568/sf	82	0sf
Oct 6	266	$583/sf	81	0sf
Oct 13	278	$583/sf	83	0sf
Oct 20	270	$591/sf	87	0sf
Oct 27	262	$585/sf	92	0sf
Nov 3	262	$589/sf	95	0sf
Nov 10	247	$588/sf	96	0sf
Nov 17	240	$590/sf	96	0sf
Nov 24	234	$583/sf	97	3,646sf
Dec 1	224	$602/sf	95	3,564sf
Dec 8	221	$592/sf	97	3,626sf
Dec 15	213	$580/sf	101	3,641sf
Dec 22	198	$579/sf	107	3,660sf
Dec 29	189	$578/sf	112	3,679sf
Jan 5	177	$595/sf	113	3,638sf
Jan 12	184	$589/sf	106	3,627sf
Jan 19	183	$610/sf	102	3,674sf
Jan 26	185	$610/sf	100	3,655sf
Feb 2	182	$615/sf	99	3,641sf
Feb 9	192	$607/sf	97	3,666sf
Feb 16	208	$614/sf	92	3,666sf
Feb 23	201	$614/sf	89	3,728sf
Mar 2	198	$602/sf	86	3,653sf
Mar 9	208	$596/sf	81	3,681sf
Mar 16	208	$600/sf	79	3,679sf
Mar 23	211	$602/sf	79	3,662sf
Mar 30	208	$602/sf	79	3,707sf
Apr 6	210	$604/sf	77	3,634sf

The OVER-$2,400,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	DOM	Avg SF
November 25	340	$1,040/sf	159	6,347sf
December 2	330	$1,049/sf	160	6,342sf
December 9	318	$1,057/sf	163	6,392sf
December 16	317	$1,049/sf	163	6,420sf
December 23	302	$1,063/sf	169	6,405sf
December 30	285	$1,074/sf	174	6,460sf
January 6	285	$1,073/sf	171	6,477sf
January 13	295	$1,057/sf	168	6,480sf
January 20	297	$1,050/sf	157	6,537sf
January 27	307	$1,041/sf	152	6,513sf
February 3	297	$1,048/sf	152	6,545sf
February 10	315	$1,024/sf	146	6,519sf
February 17	315	$1,030/sf	148	6,572sf
February 24	314	$1,028/sf	148	6,611sf
March 3	309	$1,004/sf	145	6,628sf
March 10	316	$1,011/sf	141	6,576sf
March 17	329	$999/sf	136	6,557sf
March 24	331	$995/sf	131	6,563sf
March 31	336	$995/sf	131	6,574sf
April 7	345	$988/sf	128	6,477sf
April 14	349	$996/sf	126	6,534sf
April 21	353	$995/sf	124	6,523sf
April 28	366	$980/sf	120	6,543sf
May 5	379	$974/sf	119	6,539sf
May 12	388	$967/sf	118	6,509sf
May 19	390	$1,000/sf	0	0sf
May 26	393	$1,015/sf	122	0sf
Jun 2	395	$1,007/sf	124	0sf
Jun 9	398	$1,010/sf	125	0sf
Jun 16	397	$1,016/sf	130	0sf
Jun 23	417	$911/sf	116	0sf
Jun 30	416	$904/sf	120	0sf
Jul 7	411	$912/sf	120	0sf
Jul 14	419	$893/sf	119	0sf
Jul 21	424	$884/sf	119	0sf
Jul 28	423	$882/sf	123	0sf
Aug 4	420	$888/sf	126	0sf
Aug 11	424	$891/sf	127	0sf
Aug 25	427	$878/sf	128	0sf
Sep 1	419	$863/sf	133	0sf
Sep 8	412	$900/sf	139	0sf
Sep 15	415	$883/sf	139	0sf
Sep 22	426	$849/sf	136	0sf
Sep 29	423	$866/sf	141	0sf
Oct 6	409	$953/sf	143	0sf
Oct 13	402	$991/sf	145	0sf
Oct 20	380	$1,017/sf	150	0sf
Oct 27	376	$1,021/sf	152	0sf
Nov 3	368	$1,015/sf	154	0sf
Nov 10	367	$992/sf	153	0sf
Nov 17	357	$1,003/sf	153	0sf
Nov 24	348	$1,010/sf	156	6,277sf
Dec 1	333	$1,018/sf	159	6,295sf
Dec 8	325	$1,013/sf	161	6,324sf
Dec 15	316	$1,022/sf	166	6,327sf
Dec 22	303	$1,037/sf	169	6,327sf
Dec 29	295	$1,027/sf	173	6,300sf
Jan 5	275	$1,033/sf	170	6,349sf
Jan 12	272	$1,014/sf	160	6,472sf
Jan 19	281	$1,025/sf	151	6,560sf
Jan 26	294	$1,025/sf	146	6,502sf
Feb 2	291	$1,037/sf	142	6,436sf
Feb 9	300	$1,057/sf	141	6,510sf
Feb 16	307	$1,044/sf	137	6,370sf
Feb 23	312	$1,069/sf	135	6,394sf
Mar 2	316	$1,058/sf	130	6,342sf
Mar 9	309	$1,065/sf	125	6,295sf
Mar 16	319	$1,065/sf	123	6,384sf
Mar 23	334	$1,043/sf	119	6,378sf
Mar 30	341	$1,049/sf	120	6,377sf
Apr 6	337	$1,042/sf	119	6,316sf

Actives and pendings in full swing – if you are on the open market and not selling, price is probably the reason:

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings
May 30	70	84
June 5	87	64
June 11	77	69
June 17	73	66
June 24	100	69
July 1	86	64
July 8	81	53
July 15	106	54
July 22	105	89
July 29	71	74
Aug 5	105	64
Aug 12	77	61
Aug 19	88	73
Aug 26	87	77
Sep 2	76	55
Sep 9	85	58
Sep 16	102	61
Sep 23	84	54
Sep 30	73	80
Oct 7	80	61
Oct 14	78	53
Oct 21	70	63
Oct 28	54	40
Nov 4	63	53
Nov 11	49	64
Nov 18	52	44
Nov 25	48	40
Dec 2	25	34
Dec 9	45	47
Dec 16	56	46
Dec 23	21	39
Dec 30	14	23
Jan 6	63	25
Jan 13	75	44
Jan 20	98	51
Jan 27	71	56
Feb 3	74	63
Feb 10	95	59
Feb 17	81	76
Feb 24	80	70
Mar 3	88	71
Mar 10	98	54
Mar 17	87	65
Mar 24	89	76
Mar 31	77	57
April 7	98	61
April 14	108	72
April 21	87	62
April 28	122	73
May 5	144	67
May 12	96	85
May 19	87	61
May 26	97	72
Jun 2	90	59
Jun 9	108	52
Jun 16	103	65
Jun 23	131	62
Jun 30	85	70
July 7	83	59
July 14	100	62
July 21	112	75
July 28	113	62
Aug 4	84	48
Aug 11	95	62
Aug 18	83	54
Aug 25	72	54
Sep 1	71	60
Sep 8	81	57
Sep 15	80	49
Sep 22	77	49
Sep 29	79	51
Oct 6	78	54
Oct 13	73	54
Oct 20	70	64
Oct 27	55	54
Nov 3	60	45
Nov 10	72	63
Nov 17	57	65
Nov 24	56	41
Dec 1	41	37
Dec 8	46	30
Dec 15	31	34
Dec 22	30	31
Dec 29	15	25
Jan 5	36	25
Jan 12	85	40
Jan 19	78	48
Jan 26	74	50
Feb 2	77	43
Feb 9	106	68
Feb 16	81	67
Feb 23	86	63
Mar 2	83	64
Mar 9	99	68
Mar 16	93	76
Mar 23	101	84
Mar 30	89	81
Apr 6	80	58