Last week we saw the recent NSDCC sales history – how does it compare to previous years?
Here are the sales stats from the first four months of each year, going back to the beginning of the 2-out-of-5-year capital-gains tax exclusion – which helped trigger the ensuing bubble:
| Year | |||
| 1997 | |||
| 1998 | |||
| 1999 | |||
| 2000 | |||
| 2001 | |||
| 2002 | |||
| 2003 | |||
| 2004 | |||
| 2005 | |||
| 2006 | |||
| 2007 | |||
| 2008 | |||
| 2009 | |||
| 2010 | |||
| 2011 | |||
| 2012 | |||
| 2013 | |||
| 2014 | |||
| 2015 |
In spite of all the excuses – low supply, high prices, tough credit, etc. – this year’s sales count is the second highest of the last ten years.
Want to know the direction of the market? Watch the sales count – it reflects the changing combination of low supply, prices, tough credit, and mortgage rates. We have it good here!
Click for more local history: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2005/dec/25/housing-boomed-in-north-county/
Looking at the recent history, rates are probably the ultimate precursor, and sales are the results that confirm the anticipated direction.
Another view from the ivory tower – pent-up demand to be released soon!
http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/33929-reasons-the-housing-market-is-underacheiving
When you say rates, you are referring mortgage rates, right?
Thanks,
Yes.
Mortgage rates didn’t matter during the 2003-2007 era because the low start rates on the neg-ams ruled the market. So it’s not easy to draw direct comparisons between now and then.
Its interesting to read that builder sentiment is low – though pent up demand.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05182015_nahb_builder_confidence.asp
Does the number of sales include new homes?
or just resale?
NSDCC is probably not a first time home buyer market IMO. (maybe getting increasing less so).
I was reading something the other day as well
Millennials don’t seem to want to take up the construction trades.
With boomers retiring that could keep building new homes expensive IMO.
this is what my friend says regarding builder confidence-hes a builder.:
I would say there are two reasons. The first, the cost of materials and
insurance has raisin. For the most part, material cost follows petroleum
trends. And as you may have noticed the cost of gasoline has increased.
Regarding insurance, workers’ comp has tripled in the last two years, plus
general liability has increased as well.
The second, as the school year ends and begins, homes sales drop that given
month. This also occurs during the holiday season. There is also talks
that the Feds are going to increase interest rates. This usually happens as
the economy improves. I believe interest rated will increase within the
next year, but not by much (2-3 points).
There is also rents to be considered. Currently, rent rates are still more
affordable than a mortgage. This is evident by new apartment complexes.
This is due to the accessibility of commercial lending in comparison to home
construction lending. But this is changing. Private lenders have decreased
their lending rates in preparation to compete with traditional lenders
(bank). I also see this changing within the next year.
I hope this helps.
Number of sales = MLS sales of detached homes from La Jolla to Carlsbad.
Some new homes are listed on MLS but not all.
I am not sure what percentage of new homes are listed (I would think not that many but I am not an expert).
That could be what is keeping the MLS numbers high (sales) IMO.
I am not seeing a lot of sticks being raised in the air these days.
I’ll check when I get back but I’ll guess 10-20 total.
Mortgage rates don’t matter for:
-700+ FICO, 20% downpayment, 100K+ incomes , 600k+ home prices. Confidence ( of future employment and no layoff) matters.
– Investors to grab 200K+ apts . As long as returns around 8%.
Mortgage rates matter for:
-600+ FICO, 0-20% Downpayment, 50K+ incomes, 200K+ apts/homes. Their confidence ( of future employment ) is directly related to interest rates & Loan requirements.
Nothing Matters :
-Foreign nationals ( Corrupt/filthy rich)to grab 1M+ houses on cash. Other than VISA rules/How to wire the money in & out of USA
Of the 900+ sales on the MLS, only seven were listed as brand-new homes.
There were probably 20-40 more that weren’t on the MLS. Builders don’t want to swamp the MLS and make it look like they have standing inventory.