Later we’ll take a look at some flippers around the normal beat, Carlsbad to La Jolla, but first let’s review the December stats in Oceanside’s 92057.
Northeast Oceanside was one of the first zip codes in the county to feel the full impact of the real estate collapse. We saw 50%-plus declines in value around 92057 over a year ago – is it a precursor to what will happen further south?
If so, might this happen in your area?
The mix of the 64 December SFR sales from 92057, and how the buyer financed:
REOs: 17 (10 conv, 6 cash, 1 VA)
Short Sales: 17 (7 FHA, 6 conv, 2 cash, 2 VA)
Regular Sales: 13 (8 conv, 2 cash, 2 VA, 1 FHA)
Flippers Selling: 9 (3 FHA, 3 VA, 2 conv, 1 Cal Vet)
Brand New Tracts: 8 (7 conv, 1 cash)
If you wanted to buy a regular house with a regular seller in 92057, you were limited to 23% of the resale market in 92057 last month.
Will this bank-dominated environment come to more areas of the North San Diego County Coastal region? Will 1 out of 6 resales be a flipper-finish, like it was last month in 92057?
Overall, the buyers used 52% conventional, 17% cash, 17% FHA, and 14% VA financing.
Statistically, it looks like a fairly stable market, year-over-year for 92057:
| Year | # of Dec Sales | Avg. $$/sf | Avg. SP | SP:LP | DOM |
| 2008 | $332,675 | 99% | 77 | ||
| 2009 | $345,246 | 100% | 66 |
Speaking of ooze, for Frank Zappa fans: I Am The Slime video
Just curious – how do you determine it’s a flipper selling? Less than a year ownership? Bought at trustee and immediately listing?
So if the market is stable what will happen to the other purchases made as flips? Will those be foreclosures in late 2010. If flippers see there is not much money to be had, what replaces that demand?
“If flippers see there is not much money to be had, what replaces that demand?”
extraterestrials
“extraterestrials”
Great, and here I thought the buyer’s pool was shrinking. They must have heard about the generous FHA financing terms. Now which one of you has the big mouth?
I blame Scientology.
Some people are back to advertising 0 down loans and loans where you dont have to have good credit.Guess who is backing these loans now?How long will it be before stated income loans are back.I see the HAMP program is having a hard time getting people to document their income.Now they want to allow people to get a loan mod without a tax return.We are very close to where we were in 2004 and the taxpayer is backing all these bogus loans now.Well I guess they back them all along thanks to TARP.The market is not healthy my friends.
I’d like to think buyers in CV, Encinitas, Carlsbad, etc. are more discerning and less willing to pay a known mark-up to flippers (the big assumption here is “known.”) It’s probably wishful thinking. The banks could also squeeze flippers by raising the opening bids at trustee sales.
Seeing all the overpriced turkeys on the MLS with 60+ DOM, and the above NOD and NOT stats, I have to believe there will be a bank-dominated environment.
@ #7, I’m watching this exact situation on a home in southern Carlsbad (7810 Estancia, zip 92009). I went inside this home a few months ago when it was on the market as an REO at 500K. It had major foundation trouble, uneven floors, cracks at wall joints and ceiling. A flipper bought it for 400K, fixed it up and just put it on the market for 570-620K. How does the expression go? You can put lipstick on a pig…
Jinx,
I thought they’d put it back on the market for $550K and be happy to get that. I also think the flippers are in the construction/foundation business (but not sure), so their costs were probably pretty low. Lots of greed out there.
BTW, I don’t think they’re going to get anywhere near their asking price (maybe $550K if they’re lucky), but we’ll see. If the banks don’t start coming clean, this spring will be very much like spring of 2004 with the lowest inventory numbers (which was right before inventory started flooding the market, coincidentally), a mad buying frenzy, and rising prices.
IMHO, the first half of 2010 will be very, very busy. Good times to be had for all realtors and sellers; not so good for buyers. I think we will see a lot more inventory in the second half of 2010, going into 2012. Hopefully, interest rates will rise at some point in time, but I’ve been waiting and waiting for higher rates for years.
Ca renter, I’m with you. I wouldn’t buy that Estancia house, even at 500K. The foundation looked pretty bad. They probably did the minimum amount of work required to stabilize it. This may be unfounded, but I’d be afraid of future slab problems.
I keep waiting for rates to rise too, but I’m afraid the government will continue to interfere and keep them low, despite their claims to the contrary. Here’s to hoping…