Written by Jim the Realtor

May 30, 2017

My buyers offered full price for this house on the first day, and we were fifth out of five offers. One buyer included the escalation clause, which meant he was willing to pay $1,000 over the highest bid.

It’s not a great way to determine the winner if you look at it logically – wouldn’t any buyer pay $1,000 over?  Instead, the sellers decided to sign a $1,230,000 offer the first night, which was literally $51,000 over list price.

These sold in the high-$400,000s when new in 1998.

11 Comments

  1. Ty Webb

    And you still think this isn’t a bubble??

  2. Jim the Realtor

    I haven’t changed my name, have I! 😆

    Every sale we’ve been involved with lately (last few years) have been with buyers who paid all-cash, or had big down payments. The 20% down-payment is in the minority. It makes you believe that no matter what happens, the buyers are long-termers, and expect to stay forever.

    If we go back to the last boom, which was initially fueled by the new 2 out of 5 years tax-free benefit (which at the time was unheard of), all I did was help my own clients move up every two years. Today, no one does that.

    There is a scarcity factor that needs to be inserted into the equation, and combine that with age, it creates a nasty cocktail. You can’t take it with you, and many well-to-do folks are willing to pay whatever it takes to get what they want. The value of money is dropping steadily, compared to quality housing.

  3. Ty Webb

    Where’s all the cash coming from? Easy margin debt, investors/syndicators getting lines of credit, techies borrowing against options. My guess.

  4. Jim the Realtor

    I can only comment on my own experience. None of the buyers involved in my sales are in those categories.

    I do have a flip coming up shortly, but it was all hard-earned cash invested, not borrowed.

    If you hang around guys like Tom who deal in the fast-paced flipper world, it probably has a sexy component to it that includes quick money/profits. But those are the minority – I am a retail realtor and can speak for the masses.

  5. Khurana

    This is nothing compared to the action on Lily Pl in Spinnaker Hill (92011). 1700 sqft of total gut job, fixer-upper with Mold, ripped out drywalls and pre-historic appliances being sold As-is.
    Listed for $1.25M and got more than 20+ offers. Several all cash and higher than list price. Its currently in pending status. Selling price is probably upwards of $750/sqft (before ripping out and rebuilding) … and this is in SW Carlsbad (92011) and not in La Jolla or DelMar.

  6. Jim the Realtor

    Nothing? I think it was something.

    There was one on Seacrest too that had 11 offers on it. There is no shortage of demand for the premium locations.

    Khurana – you’re not still looking, are you? Haven’t you been in the hunt since 2007?

  7. Name

    I meant “nothing” in a relative sense … Lily Pl is a total fixer upper gut job when compared to Windflower and Seacrest (Turnkey properties).

    I agree no shortage of genuine demand for the premium locations.

    Yes I have been looking since 2008 .. perfect example of what “Not-To-Do” … All this time I had been waiting for prices to comedown and bubble to pop … looking back it seems we have genuine demand and can easily sustain these “bubble” prices … especially on the coast.

  8. Jim the Realtor

    Have you been working with a buyer’s agent all this time?

    How close have you been to buying something?

  9. uber_snotling

    Seems demand for quality housing is really really high right now just about everywhere in Southern California. Not enough people are willing to sell and cash out because of the property tax implications from Prop 13. Either that, or all the good locations are totally built out and the only places for new housing require infill development or building out in the subobtimal locations.

    What level of new housing development what northern San Diego County need to fill the demand for housing there is right now? 5,000 units a year?

  10. Daytrip

    Until the stock market unloads, it’s “streets ahead” for the real estate market.

    If our general economic strategy is as simple as kissing winner butt, and mocking losers, Trump seems to be making all the right moves to ensure a stable stock market for awhile. He danced with the Saudis, i.e. winners–and mocked Merkel, and the weird little French guy–who are leaders in losing.

    Saudi’s, Russia, and Chinese can move our stock markets. The EU can hardly move their bowels without crossing their eyes first. If knowing what side our bread is buttered is generally all it takes, again, it’s “streets ahead”!

  11. Eddie89

    According to the CPI Inflation Calculator, $475k back in 1998 has the same buying power as $718,743.19 today.

    Also, the average mortgage rate back in Jan. 1998 was about 7%, today it’s about 4%. So, lower interest rates could also be pushing up the price.

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Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group

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