If you’re trying to gauge your chances of finding a seller who is distressed, here are the number of detached properties that have listed on the MLS as short sales (SS), bank-owneds (REO) or regular sellers (Reg.), plus the number of SFR trustee sales completed that either went back-to-bene (BTB) or were bought at the steps by a 3rd party – since March 1st:
| Town or Area | Zip Code | SS | REO | Reg. | BTB | 3rd |
| Cardiff | 92007 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2 |
| Carlsbad NW | 92008 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 2 |
| Carlsbad SE | 92009 | 8 | 5 | 88 | 3 | 3 |
| Carlsbad NE | 92010 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 1 |
| Carlsbad SW | 92011 | 9 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 0 |
| Del Mar | 92014 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
| Encinitas | 92024 | 7 | 3 | 76 | 4 | 2 |
| La Jolla | 92037 | 3 | 3 | 94 | 2 | 1 |
| RSF | 67+91 | 0 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 1 |
| Solana Bch | 92075 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 0 |
| RB West | 92127 | 12 | 5 | 85 | 7 | 1 |
| Carmel Vly | 92130 | 7 | 5 | 96 | 0 | 1 |
| ’10 Total | All | 55 | 36 | 688 | 32 | 15 |
| ’09 Total | All | 44 | 15 | 747 | 28 | 2 |
This year has seen a relatively big increase in short-sale and REO listings compared to 2009, but they’re still only 12% of the total listings that have been coming on the market recently in San Diego’s North County Coastal region. With only 1-2 properties being sold at the trustee sales per day, there isn’t much to look forward to this summer. The regular sellers won’t be feeling much pressure from distressed neighbors, and likely to hang around waiting…..for something.
The neighborhoods where there are a high concentration of distressed sales seem the most effected by them.
As a buyer I’ve made offers on five properties so far, four of them distressed. It’s a pain and it’s taking forever, but there’s just too much money to be saved by not going after the distressed stuff. So as JtR says, we’re in a stalemate relative to buyers like me and regular sellers who won’t come down.
The banks and home owners will win this stalemate.
North County Coastal is a solid investment.
Maybe on the whole they’ll win, but I only need one house. I’m also looking somewhat inland, so the intrinsic land value isn’t as high.
Right now I see a lot of stuff go pending, but not a lot actually closing.
It will be interesting.
Agreed, the deals actually closing appear to be just trickling out, probably due to the core problem – buyers and sellers are both hesitant, and agents not having the ability to close.
So Jim, what are the reasons for buyers and sellers hesitancy that you’re seeing? Are buyers affraid that the market is still going to go down, and sellers affraid that they’re giving away money? Job insecurity for buyers? Are appraisals a problem?
Besides being afraid that the market is still going down, the buyers are unsure that they found the right house – especially after the physical inspection exposes all the warts.
No matter what the condition is, buyers don’t want to settle for just any old house after they’ve been waiting this long.
I don’t see any job insecurity, I think most are conservative and if there is any question about their job they terminate the searching immediately.
Sellers dream about the perfect young couple with 2.2 kids coming along, falling in love with all the crappy remodeling the sellers have done themselves to save money, and pay real close to list price – and then don’t quibble about anything.
Agents don’t advocate or endorse a sale, they are much more likely to give it the old classic, “well, it’s up to you”, which is the whimpiest thing they can do. Clients want their agent’s blessing, but rarely do they get it.
Well it is up to the buyer. If you have a secure job, know you are going to be in the area for some years, and have the ability to get a loan, there is no reason not to buy. I think, buying a house with the above criteria is a very solid investment.
As a buyer, my biggest struggle is valuating a house. How do I truly know what it’s worth? The last ten years have to be thrown out as far as metrics are concerned IMO.
So all I can do is ask myself whether or not a house is worth the price. Since I’m a first time buyer I have no experience to draw from, and I unfortunately distrust 99% of sellers and agents (Jim’s in the 1%.) Combine this with Jim’s point of, “I waited this long, I ain’t settlin’ now,” and you have a hesitant buyer.
If you’re trying to sell me a house, I’m ready to go, but I’ve got as long as it takes – I’m renting and sitting on a down payment. What about you? How much longer you wanna keep up those payments? How long CAN you keep them up? How long you want your money tied up in that thing? Sellers, let me know when you’re ready to deal. Your buyer pool is shrinking, and not in a hurry.
Nice post, Blur. We feel the same way (but are not first-time buyers). IMHO, you’re right to throw out the past ten years. We’ve had a credit bubble since 2001.
OTOH, if the Fed is determined to trash the dollar, we’ve got problems. So far, the bond market doesn’t seem to be buying the threat of inflation.
What’s happening in San Marcos (N and S)? My drives through San Elijo Hills don’t seem to detect any indications of resurrection, but the retirement communities in Lake San Marcos are sprouting weekend open house signs as if they were weeds.