Hat tip to CB Mark for sending in another article on people leaving California – I added the U.S. Census stats for San Diego County at the bottom:
People have long dreamed of moving to California, but increasingly the people in the state are looking to get out.
According to recently released data from the US Census, about 38,000 more people left California than entered it in 2018. This is the second straight year that migration to the state was negative, and it’s a trend that is speeding up. Every year since 2014, net migration has fallen.
California’s population did still increase in 2018 by almost 160,000 people, largely due to the 480,000 people born in the state. But while migration out of the state has accelerated over the past few years, the number of annual births has been steady. The trend suggests in the next decade California’s population will begin to decline.
Besides births, the main reason California’s population hasn’t already started falling has been international migration into the state. Every year since 2011, net domestic migration has been negative—i.e., more people leave California than move in from other states. But from 2011 to 2016, the number of international migrants moving into California was larger than the number of locals who were moving out.
Since then, however, domestic departures have outstripped international arrivals. In 2018, 156,000 locals left the state, compared to 118,000 international who came.
Link to full article:
https://qz.com/1599150/californias-population-could-start-shrinking-very-soon/
The exodus from San Diego County is picking up steam. Where the cumulative total of domestic migration over the last eight years was only 46,596 (avg. 5,825 per year), we had 10,835 leave in the most recent 12 month segment – and the international arrivals have slowed considerably too:
I don’t think the counting is anywhere close to actuate, have you been using the freeways lately?
U-Haul Ventura to Austin. $2800.
Austin to Ventura. $800.
Any questions?
Rob_Dawg: That is very telling and current real world data. U-Haul (and all car rental companies) use differential pricing to balance their fleet distribution. Having been in supply chain & logistics for most of my career, I know it well with trucking prices for shipments into and out of California. Your pricing data says it all very succinctly.
Rob Dawg: Meant to preface that with “You nailed it!” Your analysis is absolutely spot on.
There’s still not much supply of new housing and most of it is multi-family. I think there were 7,000 residential building permits in 2018 in San Diego county, mostly multi-unit.
It’s true, you can trade your 25 minute San Diego commute for a 27 minute Austin commute. Eventually what everyone is trying to escape here they are simply transferring to a new setting, (except for the lower mortgage and bad weather).