Inventory Watch

Inventory | Jim's Take on the Market | Zillow

Written by Jim the Realtor

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July 1, 2019

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3 Comments

One of our favorite doomers says the tide is rolling out because inventory is up 37% in L.A.

There are 11.5% more San Diego homes for sale, year-over-year. But in an area of 3.3 million people, having less than 10,000 homes for sale doesn’t sound like panic time – and other metros have more:

Currently we have 1,029 NSDCC houses for sale, and last year at this time the count was 978, or 5% lower.

The tide rolls out at the end of summer- let’s see how many sellers stay on the market in 4Q19.

https://www.zillow.com/research/local-market-reports/

The UNDER-$1,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 1	36	$477/sf	51	58
Jan 8	35	$479/sf	42	56
Jan 15	39	$469/sf	37	53
Jan 22	37	$453/sf	42	62
Jan 29	38	$459/sf	35	64
Feb 5	41	$463/sf	26	69
Feb 12	39	$461/sf	20	73
Feb 19	42	$456/sf	20	72
Feb 26	53	$451/sf	20	81
Mar 5	47	$457/sf	24	79
Mar 12	60	$434/sf	19	87
Mar 19	67	$478/sf	21	81
Mar 26	61	$477/sf	23	86
Apr 2	50	$464/sf	24	95
Apr 9	56	$471/sf	23	93
Apr 16	61	$464/sf	24	93
Apr 23	59	$459/sf	25	96
Apr 30	61	$466/sf	27	95
May 7	67	$472/sf	20	89
May 14	66	$480/sf	21	95
May 21	81	$474/sf	21	85
May 28	83	$438/sf	24	91
Jun 4	80	$442/sf	27	97
Jun 11	81	$427/sf	27	91
Jun 18	88	$442/sf	29	78
Jun 25	93	$442/sf	31	77
Jul 2	96	$443/sf	30	76
Jul 9	98	$447/sf	33	65
Jul 16	98	$445/sf	34	78
Jul 23	97	$436/sf	34	68
Jul 30	116	$433/sf	32	71
Aug 6	111	$434/sf	31	64
Aug 13	115	$434/sf	34	64
Aug 20	110	$426/sf	37	58
Aug 27	117	$430/sf	36	64
Sep 3	109	$427/sf	38	62
Sep 10	113	$436/sf	36	61
Sep 17	117	$439/sf	36	59
Sep 24	109	$440/sf	37	61
Oct 1	100	$441/sf	40	67
Oct 8	106	$441/sf	40	66
Oct 15	112	$434/sf	43	57
Oct 22	111	$426/sf	42	63
Oct 29	114	$422/sf	41	64
Nov 5	110	$418/sf	44	58
Nov 12	115	$449/sf	42	60
Nov 19	111	$449/sf	42	60
Nov 26	106	$450/sf	49	60
Dec 3	99	$454/sf	47	56
Dec 10	99	$455/sf	47	55
Dec 17	89	$450/sf	49	51
Dec 24	83	$462/sf	55	51
Dec 31	78	$462/sf	61	49
Jan 7	72	$469/sf	55	49
Jan 14	78	$487/sf	49	48
Jan 21	82	$488/sf	49	49
Jan 28	68	$480/sf	53	64
Feb 4	72	$483/sf	53	69
Feb 11	75	$481/sf	45	74
Feb 18	67	$482/sf	46	76
Feb 25	67	$494/sf	47	67
Mar 4	82	$478/sf	38	64
Mar 11	90	$471/sf	36	65
Mar 18	95	$475/sf	37	69
Mar 25	98	$463/sf	36	72
Apr 1	94	$462/sf	38	71
Apr 8	91	$455/sf	42	75
Apr 15	93	$463/sf	42	75
Apr 22	94	$481/sf	44	78
Apr 29	99	$469/sf	43	84
May 6	106	$466/sf	38	81
May 13	102	$470/sf	38	78
May 20	112	$453/sf	31	79
May 27	110	$464/sf	34	80
Jun 3	113	$469/sf	33	84
Jun 10	109	$463/sf	36	88
Jun 17	109	$465/sf	35	89
Jun 24	105	$474/sf	37	84
Jul 1	96	$474/sf	38	79

The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 1	91	$532/sf	72	68
Jan 8	99	$551/sf	64	64
Jan 15	96	$535/sf	61	75
Jan 22	107	$515/sf	63	82
Jan 29	108	$512/sf	57	91
Feb 5	110	$518/sf	49	100
Feb 12	117	$487/sf	46	106
Feb 19	107	$500/sf	45	114
Feb 26	112	$485/sf	46	117
Mar 5	111	$496/sf	45	115
Mar 12	126	$475/sf	43	109
Mar 19	125	$487/sf	47	129
Mar 26	133	$484/sf	47	124
Apr 2	139	$495/sf	47	121
Apr 9	148	$485/sf	51	119
Apr 16	145	$474/sf	45	114
Apr 23	162	$470/sf	43	117
Apr 30	162	$486/sf	42	121
May 7	180	$495/sf	40	117
May 14	182	$491/sf	41	127
May 21	184	$475/sf	40	135
May 28	188	$473/sf	40	139
Jun 4	189	$469/sf	43	148
Jun 11	199	$469/sf	45	142
Jun 18	193	$465/sf	44	143
Jun 25	211	$476/sf	39	141
Jul 2	206	$483/sf	41	142
Jul 9	201	$483/sf	45	146
Jul 16	200	$502/sf	44	145
Jul 23	217	$504/sf	45	148
Jul 30	210	$493/sf	48	154
Aug 6	209	$493/sf	45	146
Aug 13	214	$496/sf	44	147
Aug 20	205	$494/sf	46	145
Aug 27	211	$493/sf	46	134
Sep 3	207	$486/sf	45	129
Sep 10	211	$489/sf	47	125
Sep 17	194	$483/sf	49	120
Sep 24	209	$476/sf	49	108
Oct 1	207	$476/sf	48	107
Oct 8	201	$481/sf	48	110
Oct 15	203	$487/sf	48	110
Oct 22	203	$492/sf	48	108
Oct 29	204	$495/sf	51	104
Nov 5	204	$490/sf	53	98
Nov 12	198	$498/sf	52	97
Nov 19	192	$498/sf	55	93
Nov 26	181	$492/sf	58	92
Dec 3	174	$478/sf	57	93
Dec 10	164	$487/sf	60	88
Dec 17	157	$487/sf	62	85
Dec 24	148	$493/sf	65	75
Dec 31	147	$495/sf	64	76
Jan 7	154	$497/sf	58	69
Jan 14	158	$489/sf	54	65
Jan 21	161	$503/sf	55	56
Jan 28	169	$489/sf	52	60
Feb 4	167	$502/sf	50	69
Feb 11	157	$504/sf	51	84
Feb 18	168	$494/sf	47	83
Feb 25	175	$494/sf	49	84
Mar 4	174	$507/sf	44	86
Mar 11	175	$501/sf	44	91
Mar 18	194	$526/sf	43	99
Mar 25	189	$510/sf	44	104
Apr 1	188	$513/sf	45	107
Apr 8	215	$512/sf	45	104
Apr 15	211	$515/sf	46	108
Apr 22	201	$513/sf	49	117
Apr 29	193	$507/sf	49	128
May 6	211	$506/sf	49	121
May 13	201	$497/sf	52	131
May 20	207	$507/sf	48	129
May 27	198	$513/sf	49	133
Jun 3	197	$510/sf	51	129
Jun 10	204	$511/sf	50	129
Jun 17	198	$506/sf	55	117
Jun 24	192	$510/sf	55	120
Jul 1	198	$503/sf	56	119

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 1	84	$612/sf	86	40
Jan 8	98	$612/sf	73	42
Jan 15	98	$607/sf	73	42
Jan 22	111	$589/sf	63	42
Jan 29	120	$577/sf	61	45
Feb 5	114	$586/sf	56	51
Feb 12	118	$566/sf	52	57
Feb 19	121	$596/sf	53	64
Feb 26	122	$596/sf	53	64
Mar 5	125	$593/sf	56	70
Mar 12	131	$602/sf	53	67
Mar 19	120	$598/sf	58	74
Mar 26	121	$596/sf	57	75
Apr 2	128	$593/sf	55	70
Apr 9	140	$612/sf	54	66
Apr 16	146	$617/sf	50	67
Apr 23	149	$616/sf	53	78
Apr 30	152	$605/sf	60	81
May 7	157	$618/sf	63	85
May 14	158	$614/sf	63	87
May 21	154	$637/sf	54	82
May 28	146	$633/sf	58	80
Jun 4	149	$614/sf	54	76
Jun 11	158	$615/sf	50	83
Jun 18	164	$606/sf	53	77
Jun 25	160	$606/sf	56	73
Jul 2	160	$607/sf	56	69
Jul 9	160	$590/sf	63	65
Jul 16	160	$591/sf	63	66
Jul 23	156	$587/sf	65	67
Jul 30	158	$582/sf	68	69
Aug 6	165	$590/sf	59	70
Aug 13	166	$596/sf	58	72
Aug 20	172	$608/sf	61	67
Aug 27	171	$622/sf	66	65
Sep 3	172	$611/sf	67	64
Sep 10	176	$603/sf	69	52
Sep 17	177	$613/sf	70	56
Sep 24	174	$618/sf	72	56
Oct 1	164	$624/sf	73	57
Oct 8	169	$612/sf	68	57
Oct 15	174	$612/sf	69	51
Oct 22	171	$602/sf	69	55
Oct 29	159	$601/sf	73	57
Nov 5	158	$601/sf	68	63
Nov 12	157	$605/sf	66	57
Nov 19	147	$624/sf	70	57
Nov 26	141	$620/sf	74	53
Dec 3	131	$611/sf	76	53
Dec 10	127	$619/sf	76	50
Dec 17	118	$632/sf	80	45
Dec 24	109	$644/sf	86	37
Dec 31	104	$636/sf	94	35
Jan 7	108	$628/sf	86	33
Jan 14	107	$647/sf	83	37
Jan 21	113	$665/sf	77	39
Jan 28	116	$676/sf	76	42
Feb 4	125	$665/sf	73	41
Feb 11	131	$670/sf	72	43
Feb 18	132	$674/sf	71	49
Feb 25	130	$670/sf	66	53
Mar 4	134	$677/sf	59	59
Mar 11	143	$674/sf	57	53
Mar 18	143	$649/sf	56	67
Mar 25	133	$642/sf	56	66
Apr 1	131	$621/sf	53	69
Apr 8	139	$618/sf	49	77
Apr 15	149	$630/sf	50	75
Apr 22	145	$616/sf	50	72
Apr 29	148	$605/sf	49	77
May 6	157	$606/sf	48	74
May 13	159	$599/sf	47	72
May 20	170	$612/sf	48	73
May 27	165	$595/sf	50	79
Jun 3	172	$607/sf	52	70
Jun 10	181	$604/sf	52	70
Jun 17	186	$610/sf	56	69
Jun 24	197	$616/sf	56	59
Jul 1	195	$600/sf	58	65

The $2,000,000+ Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 1	341	$1,021/sf	127	56
Jan 8	356	$1,007/sf	123	49
Jan 15	370	$991/sf	115	48
Jan 22	375	$992/sf	110	47
Jan 29	384	$1,005/sf	109	56
Feb 5	387	$1,005/sf	111	56
Feb 12	379	$1,004/sf	107	63
Feb 19	399	$990/sf	104	69
Feb 26	400	$990/sf	101	75
Mar 5	398	$1,022/sf	97	79
Mar 12	406	$1,017/sf	99	89
Mar 19	430	$1,020/sf	97	79
Mar 26	455	$0/sf	92	71
Apr 2	453	$0/sf	94	67
Apr 9	462	$0/sf	94	66
Apr 16	473	$0/sf	95	66
Apr 23	482	$0/sf	95	70
Apr 30	476	$0/sf	94	74
May 7	486	$0/sf	92	72
May 14	493	$0/sf	91	84
May 21	510	$0/sf	92	79
May 28	504	$0/sf	95	90
Jun 4	488	$0/sf	94	102
Jun 11	502	$0/sf	95	99
Jun 18	524	$0/sf	93	91
Jun 25	525	$0/sf	92	78
Jul 2	516	$0/sf	94	78
Jul 9	519	$0/sf	96	73
Jul 16	521	$0/sf	98	80
Jul 23	539	$0/sf	98	82
Jul 30	550	$0/sf	101	82
Aug 6	544	$0/sf	101	81
Aug 13	556	$0/sf	100	78
Aug 20	562	$0/sf	100	76
Aug 27	552	$0/sf	102	74
Sep 3	541	$0/sf	105	65
Sep 10	543	$0/sf	106	72
Sep 17	550	$0/sf	106	78
Sep 24	545	$0/sf	107	80
Oct 1	528	$0/sf	106	81
Oct 8	523	$0/sf	107	84
Oct 15	523	$0/sf	107	82
Oct 22	528	$0/sf	106	80
Oct 29	523	$0/sf	110	81
Nov 5	505	$0/sf	108	84
Nov 12	503	$0/sf	107	80
Nov 19	500	$0/sf	109	82
Nov 26	502	$0/sf	113	74
Dec 3	489	$0/sf	114	72
Dec 10	498	$0/sf	115	62
Dec 17	473	$0/sf	121	55
Dec 24	443	$1,038/sf	127	52
Dec 31	417	$1,038/sf	132	57
Jan 7	398	$1,083/sf	129	55
Jan 14	402	$1,091/sf	124	58
Jan 21	410	$1,073/sf	123	55
Jan 28	421	$1,087/sf	113	54
Feb 4	428	$1,079/sf	111	58
Feb 11	440	$1,068/sf	109	59
Feb 18	447	$0/sf	107	62
Feb 25	453	$0/sf	106	62
Mar 4	449	$0/sf	102	67
Mar 11	462	$0/sf	100	83
Mar 18	466	$0/sf	102	81
Mar 25	474	$0/sf	98	95
Apr 1	470	$0/sf	99	96
Apr 8	472	$0/sf	99	98
Apr 15	472	$0/sf	99	98
Apr 22	491	$0/sf	96	98
Apr 29	501	$0/sf	97	88
May 6	496	$0/sf	96	95
May 13	507	$0/sf	95	88
May 20	512	$0/sf	95	84
May 27	517	$0/sf	95	91
Jun 3	523	$0/sf	92	85
Jun 10	530	$0/sf	92	85
Jun 17	542	$0/sf	93	93
Jun 24	550	$0/sf	93	89
Jul 1	540	$0/sf	94	89

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings	Total Pendings
Jan 1, 2018	18	15
Jan 8	89	31
Jan 15	87	43
Jan 22	87	43
Jan 29	81	48	244
Feb 5	77	53	262
Feb 12	74	53	280
Feb 19	89	55	295
Feb 26	87	57	318
Mar 5	84	62	328
Mar 12	107	61	339
Mar 19	88	59	350
Mar 26	99	55	347
Apr 2	87	66	346
Apr 9	106	58	336
Apr 16	98	54	331
Apr 23	108	67	353
Apr 30	98	70	362
May 7	138	68	355
May 14	99	78	386
May 21	115	63	369
May 28	92	84	387
Jun 4	91	77	410
Jun 11	100	56	401
Jun 18	103	54	376
Jun 25	105	54	358
Jul 2	83	78	361
Jul 9	74	50	342
Jul 16	109	83	361
Jul 23	101	54	357
Jul 30	97	67	364
Aug 6	101	60	349
Aug 13	103	54	350
Aug 20	89	58	334
Aug 27	83	46	325
Sep 3	80	59	312
Sep 10	83	46	302
Sep 17	91	53	305
Sep 24	85	41	296
Oct 1	95	47	302
Oct 8	93	55	307
Oct 15	84	40	291
Oct 22	101	51	298
Oct 29	69	55	299
Nov 5	75	49	293
Nov 12	82	43	284
Nov 19	59	42	282
Nov 26	33	27	270
Dec 3	67	45	264
Dec 10	66	37	247
Dec 17	34	37	231
Dec 24	29	37	212
Dec 31	12	20	211
Jan 7, 2019	92	24	203
Jan 14	81	35	205
Jan 21	77	33	196
Jan 28	87	47	217
Feb 4	92	45	233
Feb 11	83	48	255
Feb 18	84	52	263
Feb 25	72	39	261
Mar 4	113	52	267
Mar 11	122	63	284
Mar 18	100	64	302
Mar 25	95	70	324
Apr 1	87	53	331
Apr 8	113	58	342
Apr 15	104	59	341
Apr 22	94	67	353
Apr 29	117	74	367
May 6	113	67	364
May 13	86	48	362
May 20	132	55	357
May 27	100	78	375
Jun 3	109	55	365
Jun 10	106	54	366
Jun 17	94	59	363
Jun 24	97	63	344
Jul 1	89	53	343

3 Comments

Rob_Dawg on July 1, 2019 at 10:04 am

A “spike” in inventory is a second derivative issue. After 4 years of declining inventory a “spike” is barely above the noise of the data. Here’s a simplified example:

Year starting change

Year 1 100 -10%
Year 2 90 -10%
Year 3 81 -10%
Year 4 73 +30%
Year 5 95

See? A 30% increase after only 3×10% declines doesn’t get you back to even.
Jim the Realtor on July 1, 2019 at 10:35 am

Good point. Doomers are going to doom though!
Jim the Realtor on July 2, 2019 at 6:47 am

America’s economic expansion reached double digits yesterday, becoming the longest boom since World War II. There’s reason to celebrate the milestone — and also to fret that it may not last.

It’s “been going on for longer than The Beatles were together,” Brian Levitt, a strategist at Invesco, told Robin Wigglesworth of the FT. “It’s older than Instagram.”