osidebuyer wants a report on the lower-tier homes.
In Oceanside the cheapie SFR foreclosures have dried up, and there’s been an incremental YOY increase in $/sf pricing, with the lowest up about 15%, with those over $400,000 being flat.
Here are the first half detached sales counts by price range, and their average $/sf:
| Oside | Under $200K | $201-$300K | $301-$400K | Above $400K |
| 2009 | 141, $144/sf | 259, $183/sf | 281, $192/sf | 146, $233/sf |
| 2010 | 38, $165/sf | 179, $202/sf | 263, $209/sf | 184, $232/sf |
What used to buy a house in O-side two years ago, now gets you a condo with a $318/mo HOA fee:
Complaining about America’s glorious system of capitalism, Jim? Are you sure you aren’t a Russian spy, like this Boston-area Redfin agent was:
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2010/06/accused_russian_spies_lived_pe.html
So now that the SFR/Foreclosures have ‘dried up’, do you foresee long-term appreciation? A subtle shift from a bear to bull market?
Interest rates and down payment requirements are so low it’s allowing every yahoo to buy a (san diego version of a lower priced) house again. If interest rates ever go up again (not likely with bernanke minding the printing press) more lower priced homes will become available again.
I have a feeling the low end landscape is going to be very different in a non-cheese world.
Thats assuming we can stay cheese-free. My guess is prices (country wide) will begin to collapse again and politicians will need votes for elections. Thats a perfect recipe for more credits right around sept/oct.
$318/month HOA fee? That’s comes to about $1,600 per month in mortgage payments, HOA and taxes.
How much is rent for a three bedroom apartment?
Nice video – sarcasm at its finest 🙂
I think the very low end in Oceanside has stabilized and won’t dip again, there are too many investors lurking. I’m in the 400K+ category and things aren’t moving. Inventory in our neighborhood is growing.
Francois-before I moved here, I lived in a 3BR duplex in the San Jose suburbs (a step up from a condo.) San Jose rent prices are generally higher than here in San Diego, especially O’side. I paid $1650/mo in rent.
-Erica
Facile but true:
When demand exceeds supply, prices rise;
When supply exceeds demand, prices fall.
Now store that in your short term memory and consider this short essay question.
In the long term, can a state which is hemorraging jobs, income and people; which is still building houses; and which has a huge shadow inventory of REO and squatter occupied – waiting to be REO houses, expect prices to rise or fall?
thanks for the update, Jim. I like how you broke the lower tier down into more tiers. Sorry to drag you into oceanside, you seemed pretty thrilled to be there 🙂
for what it’s worth here is a link to redfin’s data
http://www.redfin.com/city/13753/CA/Oceanside
#8
It could go either way.
Nobody wants to hear me out on it though, so we’ll assume the worst, and it’ll be another self-fulfilling phophecy.
Yesterday I saw the latest Gary Watts report. From cheerleader to doomsdayer, that one. He offered no answers or solutions, just cited the numbers, in full paralysis.
osidebuyer,
I love Oceanside, I’m not crazy about the REO hoops I have to jump through. Thanks for the link to redfin’s numbers, which show similar trends in a different format:
Median sales price = +23% YOY
Median $/sf = +12.9% YOY
Sales = -1.1% YOY
On the transparenct front, they say that Anna has recently closed four Oceanside homes. Recently = last 12 months, just so we know. (I had five)
NOT SURE HOW FRANCOIS DID HIS CALCULATIONS, BUT WITH 10 PERCENT DOWN I CALCULATE THIS PAYMENT TO BE NO MORE THAN 1300.00 FOR PRINCIPAL, HOA’S AND TAXES A MONTH, WHICH IS ABOUT 200.00 DOLLARS LESS THAN RENTING A COMPARABLE CONDO IN OCEANSIDE.
Nobody wants to hear me out on it though
Au contraire, mon ami! That’s one of the primary reasons I come here.
Sure, I have my opinions, but reality tends to have it’s own mind, so there’s nothing quite like a front-line assessment.
“There. Fixed it.” Heh.
$164,900? Even given that it’s a condo, that’s well within reasonable.
Didn’t you show an identical one to this a few weeks ago? I distinctly remember the weird layout.
Let me try that again. I used a bad calculator this morning, and didn’t take into account the ten percent down.
25 year mortgage on 152K at a fixed rate of 4.56 percent comes to 846 dollars per month. Add 385 for HOA, maybe 200 for taxes (I’m basing this on my tax bills from three years ago), and that comes to $1,431 per month.
That’s about $100 to $200 less per month than renting. However, because it’s a condo, not only are you responsible for your own unit’s upkeep, but also everyone else’s, which means the potential for a surprise bill or two.
Still, when compared with the price of a house, it can still be a pretty decent investment if the prices go up in the future. And if they go down, you’ll only be in the shallows, and not so deep underwater that you might be better off walking away from it.
You Californians have no clue how bad it can get. You should have lived in Houston in the eighties. Before the oil bust, in 1982, Houston was the hottest, most expensive market in the country.
My mother-in-law bought a house in the outer reaches for 164,000 in 1982. She sold it in 1990 for 72,000. I checked the appraisal for it today and it’s 149,000, 28 years later. It still hasn’t recovered. Condos were worse. I am friends with an investor who, during the 1990’s, paid cash in the 20’s for condo’s that listed for the high 80’s ten years prior. they still don’t appraise in the 80’s in 2010.
You just have no idea what happens to prices when there is a net decrease in employment, population and incomes. The difference between California today and Houston then is that today you also have mortgage credit shrinking up. That only makes it worse. Just wait till the flood gates open and the REO’s hit the market and the zombie/squatter soon to be REO’s hit the market. Then the banks have to take some writedowns and credit gets even tighter. Hold onto your cash, the situation will get worse before it gets worser still.