The Covid Frenzy has had remarkable shift in market efficiency like we have never seen. Historically, we have had so many listings that 35% to 40% of them didn't sell. This year we had 977 listings hit the market in 1Q21, and 80% of them have already closed escrow! ...
2021
Inventory Watch
Statistically, the frenzy should continue to be impressive - it's been red-hot for so long that it could cool off 25% and still be a vibrant marketplace. It will depend on the flow of homes coming to market, which we've had an uptick over the last two weeks - and the...
Inventory Levels
These two graphs show the dilemma - even though the new listings have been increasing steadily: They are getting snapped up so fast that the number of active (unsold) listings are historically low: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2 Out Of 5 Years Exemption, Revisited
The residential real estate market has no boundaries on pricing. It's free enterprise at its finest - no laws, no restrictions, and no limit on where prices can go. We saw a dramatic example where a model-match tract home on the same street sold for $550,000 more than...
NSDCC May Listings & Sales
We're still waiting for that flood of inventory! NSDCC May Listings and Sales Year # of Listings Median LP # Sales Median SP Avg. $/sf Median $/sf 2017 507 $1,370,000 345 $1,200,000 $525/sf $418/sf 2018 522 $1,399,450 273 $1,325,000 $592/sf $480/sf 2019 502 $1,450,000...
The Post-Covid Era for Real Estate
The best part about returning to normal is dropping the requirement of having to sign the covid disclosure - known as a 'pead' - just to see a house. I don't mind the paperwork, it's the badgering by listing agents to submit the form immediately before anything else...
Rising Home Prices Are Slowing
Mike thinks this year's price explosion was unusual, and is working its way back to a more-normal pace. I agree with Mike, and think the market will split, with those products that have been the hottest (one-story homes, family homes with yards and pools, etc.) will...
More Frenzy Measuring
Based on these closed sales, the local frenzy has been steady this year - though these are results of buying decisions made as far back as January and February. For the most part, we have as many or more sales, and the same or higher LP:SP ratios over the last 60 days...
Inventory Watch
It is extremely unusual to have more pending listings than actives - I can't remember a time when it has ever happened before, and certainly not at these record prices. You can tell your grandkids that you remember when! This week, we did have the lowest number of new...
Frenzy Duration
This graph is charting the local Case-Shiller Index. The latest reading is from March, so these trends are reflecting the first quarter of 2021 - which means these lines will be going straight up for at least another 2-3 readings before there is any chance of a...