We just had it happen. A potential seller who had decided to wait until next year had not one but TWO competing new listings hit the market nearby. Both listings were priced $100,000+ LOWER than what we were thinking. Ouch.
When is the best time to sell your home? It is case by case.
Ideally, it’s when all three of these are in play:
When there’s no competing active listings nearby.
When you have recent neighborhood sales that support your price.
When you know where you are going.
For many, those three conditions are happening now.
Who should sell now, and who should wait until next year?
Are those holding up? Here is the recent activity at La Costa Valley:
The two sales in orange were a shock, and could have led the pricing trend downward. But the last four sales are positive, helped greatly by those with a green star that are one-story homes.
If future buyers gloss over the one-story premium, they might be willing to pay $2,000,000+ for the next new listing. Because there are NONE for sale currently, it would be an opportune time for a La Costa Valley homeowner to list their home for sale right now, and avoid a potential springtime surge of inventory.
How about the Foothills in NE Carlsbad?
I sold Mastodon in July and pricing has been crushed since – mostly because of the inferior home/locations.
Here I would suggest a Foothills homeowner to take a chance and wait until another $2,000,000+ comp goes first to right the ship, and then list for sale. If the next listing is superior in every aspect, it could buck the trend, but I’d like someone else to chart that path – hopefully someone who can fight off the trend.
It’s case-by-case. Measure all the variables, and if there are NO other active listings, it might be better for you to sell now, rather than wait.
Remember a few months ago when both Biden and the Padres were flailing and I said that the last half of the year would be so full of distractions that we’d be lucky to see 100 sales per month?
How ya feeling now?
Last month was spectacular and it looks like this month’s sales will beat the 154 from last September! There were 46 sales closed in the last week of September, 2023, and currently there are 60 pendings that went into escrow prior to 9/1/2024 so another 46 sales this month looks very doable.
The 123 sales above are today’s count.
Add 46 to it and we could reach 169 sales – and the pricing metrics are strong too!
The off-market sales are an attractive option for big shots like John above who prefer to protect their privacy, blah, blah. What about the regular folk? Is there a bulk of sales happening off-market?
How many off-market sales are there in the general marketplace?
Lance has been doing a great job documenting the natonal real estate market. He found a company that did a study and they said that there have been 1,200,000 off-market sales in the county this year, including 60,000+ in California:
Of course, realtors can’t brag enough about their off-market conquests, and getting tipped to their pocket listings will be one of the primary pitches you will be hearing from aggressive agents at open houses. Braggadocio like this:
I checked the most recent 196 single-family sales in Encinitas, Rancho Santa Fe, and Carmel Valley in all price ranges. I reviewed the tax records and the MLS and found 19 homes that were sold off-market.
The 19 off-market sales break down like this:
10 were entered onto the MLS with zero days on market.
4 agents sold their own home off-market (?).
4 were flippers (2 buys and 2 sells)
One agent bought an expired listing off-market.
People are going to sell their home off-market for whatever reason. But realtors have a fiduciary duty to their sellers, so there must have been special circumstances with the ten sales (like I had earlier this year when I did one).
If there were 25% or more of the total sales being sold off-market, it would be a big deal – and it might come to that some day. But with only ten (5%) of the recent sales being sold off-market by realtors, it’s a nothing-burger for now.
Whenever I have a buyer who loses out on a bidding war, I try to get them right back on the horse. Thankfully, there are several houses sitting around that aren’t not selling in the $3 million range, so we made another offer yesterday.
First, I went to the open house and discussed for 30 minutes the state of the market (soft and picky), the good and bad features of the home, the sellers’ motivation, and generally built rapport with the listing agent who I had never met.
His listing of a 5,000sf tract home on a smaller lot has been for sale since April.
I mentioned that people don’t need a house this big. Buyers would rather spend less on a house that still suits their needs without the extra bedrooms, library, wine tasting room, etc. He mentioned that he had comps, and I pointed out that nobody else is coming to the open house. The market has changed.
The list price is $3,598,000.
We offered $3,150,000 with closing in two weeks.
I mentioned in my email that since the sellers had paid $2,100,000 in 2020, that they would experience 50% appreciation in four short years, or 100% cash-on-cash return on their $1 million down payment when they bought it, which is unheard of in the history of real estate.
He called me this morning.
He said that they are willing to counter $3,575,000, or $23,000 below list.
Don’t think that this market is going to get easier. The amount, and the quality of help will be going down further with the new rules. It will make it harder and harder to put deals together.
This will probably be the day that the real estate world changes forever. It will end up being the day that more paperwork buried the participants, which we’ll get through but it will take a few months before consumers get comfortable with it.
I’d like to memorialize the day with a story from the field. I mentioned that we made an offer last Sunday on a hot new listing in Carlsbad. We finally had a conclusion yesterday.
My buyer offered $3,730,000, which was $230,000 over the list price, and had an 80% down payment.
We lost.
We found out when the auto-notification was received that it had been marked pending. We had to wait for five days, and that’s how it ended – nice.
Those who think it looks easy to just go out and buy a house without any help, good luck to you. It is probably easier these days to buy an overpriced house that has been on the market for weeks, but if you want a good buy, don’t be surprised if it is hotly contested. For the rest of time.
Here’s why home buyers should be optimistic – as demand falls off, it will probably be a wide-open playing field for the rest of 2024! No seller is going to be dumping on price though, especially the sellers of the better homes that you want to buy. You gotta be able to dig them out.
If you have sold a house since 2015 and some of the commission you paid went to the buyer’s agent, you can file a claim here. Of the $730 million, the attorneys are taking around $300 million, and the estimated payout to claimants is expected to be roughly $13 each:
I’ve been sitting on this photo for about ten years so it’s about time!
The vice president and I have things in common. We were both born in Oakland and she got her start at the same place my grandfather did. Her law career began in 1990 at the Alameda County’s District Attorney’s office – my grandfather was there from 1923-1969, including his 22 years as the district attorney.
My brother’s wife Jill worked at the DA’s office at the same time as Kamala (circled above)!
What does Kamala’s ascent to the top of the ticket mean for home sales?
Biden dropping out of the race has to provide some calming to the real estate market, especially in gloomy blue states where hope was dismissed about three weeks ago. Even though local sales have been healthy, if the hopium causes a critical 10% to 20% of extra demand then we could see a surge over the next 30+ days.
She is a fantastic speaker, and it won’t take long for the polls cast doubt on the outcome. Even if she loses, she will provide enough comfort for the rest of 2024 that our market should survive quite nicely.
As long as nothing gets too negative, home sales should be fine!
