I think we are in for several monumental changes in the market conditions next year. Some will be quick to label it a simple change from a seller's market to a buyer's market and leave you hanging. But it is a description that needs more definition - specifically,...
2025
Contest for Padres Tickets
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings come to market in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season! In past Januarys, the guesses spanned a reasonable range and usually the winner was somewhere in...
Inventory Watch
The was the Inventory Watch report in mid-December last year: Today's report: The NSDCC median list price today is $3,895,000. (It was higher than $4M until April 15th this year). There are 22 houses for sale priced under $1,500,000 between La Jolla and Carlsbad. The...
Reason #10
Last Friday I had my nine reasons why inventory is going to surge in 2025, and it's going to start up in January just like it did this year. It wasn't a bad thing in 2024 because NSDCC sales have increased +6% year-over-year as the demand picked up some of the extra...
Big Mo in SE Carlsbad
To demonstrate further how the momentum is building, let's look at SE Carlsbad. 4th Quarter SFR Closed Sales Between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000 in the 92009: 2023: 9 2024: 23 The optimism coming off the election helped, because ALL of these went pending since November...

Frenzy Monitor – Big Mo
There are 20% more active listings, and 21% more pendings than we had last December - a monthly trend here in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the demand is keeping up with the supply. Compare it to August when there were 26% more homes for sale year-over-year, but 17%...
Inventory Watch
Some of the active home sellers aren't detecting any reason to stop trying. With 45 new listings in the last week, we're back up to 401 NSDCC houses for sale - what off-season? If you haven't cancelled your listing by now, you're plowing through Christmas and into the...
Inventory Surge in 2025
My Reasons Why NSDCC Inventory Will Surge in 2025: 1. Been trending that way - there has been 15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year than in 2023. 2. Since October 1st, there have been 90 more listings that cancelled than last year. They'll be back! 3. Prop 19 was...
2025 Price Forecasts
As usual, the pricing forecasts for next year are varied. How do we know what to expect? The average and the median is +3.55%. Two entities picked +2.3%. Just go with the highest at +10.8%? Moody's, the leader of the Doom Squad, just couldn't say flat. They had to go...

Over List, November
Another month where the percentage of buyers who paid over the list price was around one out of five, while exactly HALF of the buyers paid at least $100,000 UNDER the list price! There were 11% of the sales where the listing agent also represented the buyer too....