This will probably be the day that the real estate world changes forever. It will end up being the day that more paperwork buried the participants, which we’ll get through but it will take a few months before consumers get comfortable with it.
I’d like to memorialize the day with a story from the field. I mentioned that we made an offer last Sunday on a hot new listing in Carlsbad. We finally had a conclusion yesterday.
My buyer offered $3,730,000, which was $230,000 over the list price, and had an 80% down payment.
We lost.
We found out when the auto-notification was received that it had been marked pending. We had to wait for five days, and that’s how it ended – nice.
Those who think it looks easy to just go out and buy a house without any help, good luck to you. It is probably easier these days to buy an overpriced house that has been on the market for weeks, but if you want a good buy, don’t be surprised if it is hotly contested. For the rest of time.
It’s just a matter of time before a big player brings the auction format to the residential resale market. These guys are in position – they are auctioning commercial properties, and with their sister company Homes.com wanting to be the #1 search portal, it would be a natural transition:
When Sotheby’s sells paintings at auction, no one thinks of them as being distressed.
So why does real estate sold at auction get a bad rap?
Ten-X, the world’s largest online commercial real estate exchange, makes a positive case for auctions as the fastest and most accurate way of finding a property’s true value. By combining 21st Century online sales tech with industry-leading data from CoStar, Ten-X cuts through the inefficiencies of the traditional sales process, finding sellers the right buyer in an average of 100 days from marketing to close.
TRD sat down with Ten-X President Steven Jacobs and Vice President Victor Gutierrez to learn how their platform is perfect for sellers feeling stress in the current market, who need to get assets off their books before they become distressed.
Ten-X’s sales platform is built to establish a property’s value from the start and then find the right buyer in a timely fashion with as little back and forth as possible. But what may seem like an obvious way of doing business is actually the reverse of how most real estate deals are done.
“The way traditional sales are done is fundamentally backwards,” says Gutierrez, who describes the inefficiencies of the normal process: “I give you a bit of information, and then you give me the price you’re willing to pay, and then I give you the rest of the information, and then you adjust your price, and now we’ve been going back and forth for months.”
“When you’re selling a property, by the time you get through the first and second round of offers, then the best and final round and pick an investor, it’s taken five or six months,” adds Jacobs. Only then does the due diligence begin, after which, “a majority of the time you get a retrade.”
In the end, months after going to market, the result is a deal for a lower price than the initial offer. “It becomes a negative experience,” says Jacobs.
With Ten-X, this order of operations is turned on its head. “The buyer does the due diligence before making an offer,” explains Jacobs. “As a buyer, by the time you come to the auction, you’ve read the rent roll, you’ve toured the asset, you’ve looked at the financials, you’ve seen the property condition report. You’ve had access to best-in-class CoStar data and documents. All the stuff that you typically have to do post-contract, you’ve already done beforehand.”
This transparency benefits both sellers and buyers. For sellers, they can complete a sale in a fraction of the time as a traditional deal while retaining a similar degree of control over the price thanks to their ability to set a reserve price under which they can choose not to accept an offer. For buyers, not only do they have all the information before making a bid, but the process is transparent and fair, what Jacobs describes as “an even playing field.”
Buyers, like sellers, access the Ten-X platform through a robust digital platform that puts all the information they need to make an informed bid at their fingertips. Ten-X has also brought Stripe technology to the platform, which has streamlined the buying process further by giving bidders the ability to securely link their bank accounts for instantaneous approvals and real-time proof of funds updates.
The controversial local brokerage in Los Altos was offering a measly $10,000 commission to the buyer-agents on their listings, most of which were $4,000,000 and up. They listed a similar house on a quiet street about a mile away for $2,988,000 and then marked it pending a week later.
So I followed their lead and priced my listing at $2,995,000 even though mine needed EVERYTHING and was on a heavily-traveled street.
I wanted to prove that paying 2.5% commission to the buyer-agent would cause a better result.
Theirs closed for $4,200,000 (and was put up for rent for $2,900/mo).
Mine sold for $4,200,000 too, but then our buyer-agent volunteered to cut 1.5% of her 2.5% commission and deduct it from the sales price. In those cases, the lender has to get the appraiser to re-issue their appraisal at the revised price – but she forgot, which delayed closing for another week. I’ve never prayed so hard for an earthquake not to happen!
I don’t know if the agent on the other sale only got paid $10,000 to support her buyer with paying $1,200,000 over their list price, but she deserved more.
But combined with my buyer-agent being so generous, and the other comments at open houses, the agents around the Silicon Valley are so desperate that they are begging for business. The amounts buyers pay over the list prices indicate the same.
I still think my result was better than the $10,000 guy due to our harsh condition and busy street. But I can’t say that the 2.5% made any difference at all.
We can probably come to this conclusion though. In a scorching-hot entry level market, you don’t need to pay much to a buyer-agent, if anything at all. If the buyer-agent is smart, they will have their own agreement with their buyer to cover it.
In areas where the actives-to-pendings ratio is 4:1 or higher (Rancho, I’m looking at you), paying a reward or bounty to a buyer-agent is worth considering. Is that steering? No, it’s America, where paying incentives to get what you want should be legal and encouraged.
This is as far east as you can get in Oceanside, so it’s not really much a coastal home when it’s 4-5 miles away. But this is a great example of what is happening at the entry level of every market today!
Above are the 2024 listings that have already closed escrow in Carmel Valley – it’s very competitive.
We’re heading into a new era where buyer-agents will be appreciated less than ever, if at all.
Consider this – in a bidding war where the sellers listing agent will be choosing between similar offers, won’t having a solid, reputable buyer’s agent on your side be helpful?
Not only will the buyer get strategic advice on making a more-lucrative offer, but the buyer-agent’s reputation will also play a role in the outcome. The listing agent will want to select a deal that has the best chance of closing easily, and their comfort and familarity with the buyer-agent will make a difference here in a tight race!
I mention how tough it is to find anyone who has a bidding-war strategy, but it’s because our expectations rose dramatically in 2010 after witnessing one of the best of all-time.
They were auctioning off a vacant lot owned by the City of Del Mar.
This video starts at the beginning of the auction, and the bidder at the bottom of the screen was a proxy for Carson Palmer – who eventually got the last laugh when he built a 6,580sf house on this lot and then sold it for $18,000,000 in 2020.
The auction starts at $1,000,000 – but watch how fast it climbs, particularly from $3,000,000 to $4,000,000. Did he have to pay that much? How about the guys in suits running around, the cameraman, and the auctioneer’s chant all contributing to the excitement. It was over before anyone could think!
Carson also paid a 10% buyer’s premium on top, so his final purchase price was $4,400,000:
There had to be skeptics to my Los Altos Adventure last weekend.
Did you mis-price the houseby more than a million dollars on purpose – or just by accident? Come on – you were 440 miles out of your normal market area….dude….you got lucky!!
I like to pay close attention to the market activity in the days before inputting a new listing. This was the latest listing by the guy who has just captured nationwide attention of his lowball $10,000-commission offer to the buyer-agents. As of Wednesday night, this was still active, and I told my sister that I didn’t want to compete directly because mine would help to sell his. If it was still an active listing when I woke up on Thursday, then I’m not coming up and we will postpone the listing for at least two weeks due to weather:
Miraculously, when I woke up the listing was marked pending – so I left for Los Altos.
All I had to be was the most attractive new listing in a very exclusive area (Nvidia is based in San Jose). There had to be losers from the Parma bidding war who were motivated to buy the next one, and there was nothing else for sale at this price point.
I was talking it up with every agent who came to my open house, and eventually I found an agent who was in the same office as the buyer-agent of Parma – and they confirmed that it sold for $4,150,000! Do you think I told that to every person I met over the next 48 hours….yes!
Let’s note my options: Either price attractively and have buyers bid it up, or price at retail and wait.
Here’s an example. The size of house and lot are pretty similar to mine, and it’s a busy street too. How are they doing? They listed for $3,998,000, and 30 days later they are still unsold:
The more obstacles that need to be overcome, the more attractive the price needs to be.
I’ve been showing houses to buyers the last couple of days, and this theory has never been more clear. As we walk into a house that appears to be priced at the top of the range (or higher), the skepticism builds with every step – and we’re looking for any reason NOT to buy.
But when you walk into an attractively-priced home and see defects, they just confirm why the price is attractive – buyers don’t expect perfection when the price is attractive!
What happens once a home hits the open market depends on the listing agent. Yesterday, one was blaring his Jesus music, and another was chatting with the sellers who were still hanging around even though the open house started 15 minutes earier. Most listing agents aren’t implementing any bidding-war strategy – heck, yesterday there was one agent who didn’t even know the price of the home!
In reviewing the Los Altos comps, about half of them had closed over the list price, so I knew it was going to be hot. I knew that I was selling a house that looked all original, and was on a busy street. So we priced it attractively and I aggressively implemented my tried-and-true bidding war strategy that works!
There is no guidance on how to effectively handle a bidding war.
I don’t see or hear anything from NAR, CAR, brokerage managers, or team leaders on how listing agents should handle a bidding war, other than to put the offers on a spreadsheet and let the seller decide. But they are paying us a lot of money to give them advice, and that’s all we got? Embarrassing.
For realtors who think that’s good enough, then fine. Do you mind hurrying up with that retirement?
I made an offer on behalf of buyers last Thursday that was 6% over the list price. The listing agent won’t tell me how many offers they have, what price they are at, or even how the winner will be determined. After five days of waiting, we are left with nothing except “I’m trying to get you a counter” that came last night.
It never occurs to them that their inaction for days causes the buyers to cool off in the hurry. The agent will finally get around to picking a buyer they like, and the home will finally sell. But it won’t be for top dollar.
When I receive multiple offers, I’m transparent with everyone.
With our Cedarcrest listing, I’ve been telling every buyer and agent exactly what to expect. I encourage all of them to make a written offer, we will request their highest-and-best offer on Monday, and then find the winner on Tuesday.
Once the offers are in, usually half of them won’t submit a highest-and-best because they already did, or they cooled off quickly. No problem, and thank you for your offer.
We’re up to nine offers now, yet only two or three have expressed their sincere desire to buy this house. What a great filtering system to find the real players! Once I’ve confirmed with every agent that their highest-and-best offer has been received, I ask them if they want to go any higher – and tell them that if they don’t they are going to lose.
The efficiency is spectacular. The buyer-agents have the intel they need to literally tell their buyers, “If you don’t go higher, you’re going to lose out”. Every buyer would like that clarity in which to make a decision – yet every other listing agent thinks it’s better to keep them guessing in the dark for days.
A few will be startled by the transparency because they have never seen it before.
They think they deserve some favoritism because they are a cash buyer, or because they were first, or because their agent is a sweet-talker…..but what they really want is to score an off-market deal at a lower price because they see a lot of those happening – and they’ve never seen anything like mine.
Another agent asked about the action because she has a new listing coming in the neighborhood that is on the canyon side. She got what she wanted out of me, but then wouldn’t tell me anything else about hers, other than, “You’ll see it when it’s on the open market”. Great – we’ll see how she does vs. me!
After a disappointing number of sales last month (87, the lowest monthly count ever), January is poised to reach 100+ sales. There are 128 houses in escrow today, and 39 of those were marked ‘pending’ prior to January 1st so probably 20+ of those stand a good chance of closing by the end of the month:
NSDCC Monthly Sales
Although the severe drop in sales recently can be attributed to higher mortgage rates, higher prices, etc., you can’t sell what’s not for sale:
NSDCC January Listings
With the number of listings up to 183 this month, we should reach the 205 listings we had last January. Will the last few people on our list still have a fighting chance, or should we hand the Padres tickets to Joe?
Here are the contestants:
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings
142 Anne M
157 Skip
160 doughboy
170 Dale
174 SurfRider
176 LifeIsRadInCbad
180 Kingside
188 Stephanie R.
189 Chris
190 Tom
192 Sara G.
196 Derek
200 Curtis
208 Rob Dawg
210 Bode
213 Shadash
217 Nick
222 Majeed
223 Joe
With slightly more inventory, similar pricing and rates, and pent-up everything, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot as it was last year. This week, I had buyers survive an 8-offer bidding war and win by submitting the now-customary $100,000+ over the list price, and there have been crazier sales already:
We’ve received ELEVEN offers on our new listing at 7114 Columbine!
The five cash buyers have declined to go any higher, so the six financed offers will be competing today for the win. We sent all of them a highest-and-best counter with a 4pm deadline today. Meanwhile, any other agents who want to show and sell are encouraged to do so – we don’t stop the showings or offers, like most agents do.
