Lingering Effects of Lowballs

by | Oct 4, 2023 | 2023, Carmel Valley, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim | 10 comments

As we roll into the Lowball Season, we’re reminded of what happened in Carmel Valley at the end of 2022. Everyone’s home equity was built up fast and easy over the last 3.5 years, and the more desperate sellers might give it back in big chunks if they had to….and with 8% mortgage rates, they might have to.

How did it turn out last year?

The fourth quarter of 2022 was brutal for the entry-level homes in Pacific Highlands Ranch:

The list pricing was fairly optimistic, and after 30+ days on the market, the lowballers came out. By the time my listing hit the market (the last on the list), our list price was revised down to $1,599,000 to ensure we would sell right away – and hopefully for more, which we did, and stop the trend.

Did the pricing bounce back this year?

The first sale of 2023 closed right away for $1,690,000, and it seemed like the comeback was underway. But then the next sale was $1,560,000 – and it has hampered the pricing ever since:

The big threat isn’t going to be foreclosures. It will be the equity-rich sellers who dump on price to get out – and they will impact future sales. A couple of lowballs can turn into a trend!

Letters like these probably won’t help either:

Carmel Valley Estate

by | Jul 31, 2023 | Bubbleinfo TV, Carmel Valley, Market Conditions, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

The 1+ acre lot was probably what sold this one.

Part of a nice flurry of July sales that are inline with the monthly sales counts in March-June. But the median sales price has a month-over-month change of -17%, which will cause the doomers to flip out. But it’s only because there were a bunch of lower-end sales this month.

Your home’s value didn’t drop 17% in the last 30 days!

Carmel Valley One-Story House

by | Jul 24, 2023 | Bubbleinfo TV, Carmel Valley

I don’t know if they did it on purpose, but this was priced well below market at $1,295,000. On Friday it closed for $1,570,000. The open house started at noon – I got there at 2pm and it was still cranking.

This was the lowest-priced single-family-residence in Carmel Valley this year – by $200,000! It shows you that when you put a home on the open market and let everyone have an opportunity to buy it, the market will get you up close to retail. Two other listings of this model are pending, priced at $1.5 million. One of them was pending when this went on the market.

Summer 2023 Pricing

by | Jul 7, 2023 | 2023, Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Encinitas, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim


The local home pricing is still off the highs of early-2022, but not by much.

The smaller sample sizes (fewer sales) will make it harder to accurately identify the trends and cause more frustration/indecision for both buyers and sellers. Have we recovered, or just briefly paused the softness?

Most of all, it will expose the skill sets of realtors.

Get Good Help!

Survey results from our friends at 1000Watt:

Inventory Is Bleak!

by | Apr 26, 2023 | Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Downsizing, Encinitas, Market Conditions

For the buyers who want to live in a master-planned community with good schools, how bleak is it?

No one will be surprised to see the newer tracts hunkered down for another decade or longer, so let’s look at the older communities – those that are 20-25 years old. Those original owners are bouncing around in their empty nest, and should be cashing in and downsizing by now, shouldn’t they?

Yeah….no.

For homeowners who are planning their move carefully, April should be seen as the ideal month to list a home for sale. Yet look at the results:

The Carmel Valley tracts used were Belmont, The Breakers, and Lexington.

I know there are still a few days on April left this year, but it doesn’t look good for buyers so far!

Carmel Valley Pacific Highlands Ranch

by | Nov 16, 2022 | Bubbleinfo TV, Carmel Valley, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent | 3 comments

Our new listing in Carmel Valley! Open 12-3 this weekend.

Check out this attractively-priced Portico home with fully remodeled kitchen, hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms + loft and downstairs den, sumptuous primary suite with two walk-in closets, and upstairs laundry room. New paint and carpet, private yard, and cool front porch to watch the balloons go by! Live here and send your kids to Solana Ranch Elementary School – verified with the school district on Nov. 16th. The community pool/clubhouse is like a 5-star resort! It’s a good distance away from Carmel Valley Road too. This model sold for $2,086,000 on May 9th. Look at the savings – our list price is 20% off, and the 30-yr jumbo rate is back down in the 5s! Fed governor Bullard said today that the Fed Funds rate might have to go 1% to 3% higher. This home is the best discounted price/low rate combo you’ll see in the next 1-2 years! Only $1,675,000.

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