The last coffee bet began in 2006 when it was obvious to me and others that the market bubble was popping, so let's examine the data back to those years to see if we can learn anything that might be helpful when trying to predict the future: NSDCC Listings and Sales...
After mortgage rates went over 6% again yesterday, the doomers will be burying the real estate market over the next few months. You can see why - rates have been dropping for a generation; for them to now go up from 3% to 6% in a few months is unprecedented for...
From Bloomberg.com: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-03/case-shiller-retrofit-shows-less-severe-u-s-home-price-slump.html The collapse in U.S. home prices that stoked the worst recession since the Great Depression wasn’t quite as severe as initially estimated,...
At last night's panel discussion the question was asked, "When will the Case-Shiller index hit bottom?" Other panelists politely side-stepped the question, so I took the plunge. My last prediction was the infamous coffee bet from September, 2006, where I guessed that...
The other two neighborhoods I mentioned as "superior homes" to watch were Davidson's Starboard tract in La Costa Oaks, and the old beach community, Terramar. How are they doing? The number of sales have been low, and data scattered in both areas. Here are the...
It was September, 2006 that the famous coffee bet took place. I had put forth my hypothesis on how the downturn would end up, adding that with my prediction and about $4 you could get a cup of coffee. Here's a link for those who'd like to review the hypothesis:...
