I said: 0% appreciation for NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad) in 2023. Zillow says: +1.5% to +1.9% for NSDCC. Goldman Sachs says: -1% for San Diego. Moody's has San Diego County home prices changing –3.65% between now and the end of 2023, and then -2.9% by the end of 2024....
Zillow has recalibrated and is predicting a fairly flat 12 months ahead. Here are the zip codes I've received so far, all ranging between +1.5% and 1.9% appreciation over the next 12 months - the rest of the local zip codes should be similar: NW Carlsbad SE Carlsbad...
Yesterday's Case-Shiller Index for San Diego was 425.26, which is 11% higher than it was in January. But check how the trend increased between January and now. Prices rose as fast as ever in early 2021 (yellow above). If they would have mellowed out along my red...
These guys are among the most negative in the business, so if they have San Diego County home prices changing -3.65% between now and the end of 2023, and then -2.9% by the end of 2024, then prices in the better areas will be positive. The most likely to happen is that...
I think we can say that summer is over, and the off-season is here. How will the rest of 2022 play out, and what will be the effect on the 2023 Selling Season? We know that the local NSDCC sales counts will be low for the rest of 2022. Last year we had 136 closings...
The latest Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are still expecting a fairly strong appreciation rate over the next year - these estimates are the same or higher than last month! I can see a path to how this could happen. The Spring Selling Season gets frenzied up for 3-4...
I'll find someone to buy my $2,295,000 listing in La Costa Oaks, and it could be the last LCO listing of the year. It will mean that LCO sellers will be expecting at least $2-something in the 2023 selling season, which won't feel like prices dropped much while buyers...
If the reason the housing frenzy stalled was due to higher mortgage rates - and then mortgage rates come down - shouldn't it ease the concerns? Unfortunately, the national doom-and-gloom is heavy and persuasive, and reliance on ivory-tower guesses can become a...
It doesn't do any good to lower your price if there are no buyers. Sellers of superior homes should wait it out and take their chances later....because the next selling season is right around the corner.
Yesterday I joined Molly of Real Talk Media for a couple of thoughts about next year's market: The key to market conditions will be the inventory - no surprise there. If there was a surge of newer McMansions for sale that were upgraded, well-presented, and had decent...
