The Fed did what they said they were going to do and raised their fed funds rate target by another 0.75%. What happened to mortgage rates? They went down! Read the story here. Yes the -0.01% isn't much, but didn't every casual observer think mortgage rates were going...
Forecasts
Zillow Local Forecasts
The latest Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are still expecting a fairly strong appreciation rate over the next year. In May, they were guessing +19% or more in all areas, so this looks like a soft landing: NW Carlsbad, 92008: SE Carlsbad, 92009: NE Carlsbad, 92010: SW...
Who’s Left
By the end of today, the 30-year mortgage rate should be in the mid-6s - who would buy a house now? Between higher prices, higher rates, and the hefty federal and state capital-gains tax, the move-up/move-down homeowners are effectively locked in to their existing...
Frenzy Wrapping Up
The frenzy wasn't going to last forever. Coming off the initial covid months, everyone thought the red-hot market was an acceptable reaction to the way our world had changed. But it's gone too far, and somebody had to do something - and the Fed is going to do it...
Boom to Doom?
The headline writers are having fun with the current real estate market. They must challenge each other with whom can come up with the most outrageous headline, regardless of what's in the article. In this week's article, he says, "that we've officially moved from a...
The Adjustable Forecast
Yesterday, Lawrence Yun predicted that home sales will fall by 9% this year, and home prices will rise by 8%. At the beginning of the year, his forecast was: 2022 Home Sales Forecast: -2% 2022 Home Price Forecast: +2.8% 2022 Mortgage-Rate Forecast: Rates to rise to...
Time to Sell?
I don't care what color he's seeing, if he sells his tony golf-course estate today and thinks he will buy it back later for less, he will be in for a rude awakening. Without foreclosures (now mostly outlawed in California) causing banks to give away homes, there won't...
The Future of Rates & Home Prices
From yesterday's article, which also ran in the SDUT today: “There are so many strange things going on right now,” said Edward Seiler, the associate vice president for housing economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association. It has been 40 years since rates have risen...
Zillow Now Says +30% Appreciation
Yesterday Bill talked about how the median home prices have picked up: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/median-vs-repeat-sales-index-house-198 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Zillow has also done a reversal on where they think...
San Diego Home Pricing, Tiered
This guy has been drunk on the doom juice for so long that he must never get out of his bunker! If he did, he would see the overwhelming demand for every new listing, even though underwriting standards are strict and rates are going up. Of the 140 NSDCC sales last...