If there was going to be a time when the local market might soften up a bit, it would be around November/December, wouldn’t it? If the majority of the recent sales closed at 10% discounts or more, then it would be nervous time, but most buyers are still paying fairly close to list – or higher.
We’ve had 47 closed sales in December so far, and pricing is holding up. Next year probably will too!
There were 18% of NSDCC November sales that closed over their list price, which was better than 2022. The YoY pricing metrics have popped as well – all are at least 18% HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR:
NSDCC Monthly Sales & Pricing
The number of sales should drift up to last year’s 118, or maybe a tad more.
The number of sales and percentage of homes that closed over their list price were better last month than they were last October, but that’s not saying much.
The late-summer surge has subsided, and the last two months of 2023 should bring in a couple of hundred more sales without much change to the pricing stats.
A look at the individual sales is more volatile though. This price point used to be 100% over list:
The willingness of buyers to pay over the list price will probably keep dropping off, just like it did last year. There were discounts too, with 16% of the September sales closing at 10% or more BELOW their list price.
The lousy way we measure pricing makes it look like the market is steady:
In the months when the average and median sales prices increased, it didn’t mean your home’s value went up – it just means that the set of homes were a little bigger and nicer than other months. And vice versa!
Today, there are only 134 pendings, so it will be in the monthly sales counts where we’ll see impact. Last year, the monthly sales in the fourth quarter were 133, 123, and 110, and if we can get close to those counts with mortgages around 8%, it would be great.
Given that mortgage rates have been above 7% since the beginning of July, it’s incredible to see August having the highest sales count for 2023!
September is looking pretty good too – there have already been 57 closings this month.
The pricing is holding up too. What a market!
It’s never been like this – Get Good Help!
The average and median sales prices last month were similar to what they were in December, even though the same percentage of buyers paid over the list price.
It might make you think that this market is retreating quickly!
But look at the difference of the number of lower-end sales, and square footages:
The size of the houses weren’t that different, so what’s up?
Buyers aren’t bidding up the prices like they were before. Here’s an example of those right under the median sales price last month:
Instead of overbidding by hundreds of thousands of dollars, buyers in July mostly stayed in their shoes and only offered a little over the list price. Expect that trend to continue!
The need to pay over the list price has diminished a bit, but about a third of buyers who closed last month still felt like it was worth paying more than the sellers were asking.
Last month looked a lot like June, 2022! There were 24% fewer sales however, and that trend should continue through the rest of 2023:
There were 20% fewer listings YoY last month, so with virtually all of the current active listings holding out on price and very little new product to consider, the fate of the 2H23 market will be back to the buyers – how bad do you need to buy a house right now, versus waiting for Spring 2024?
The number of sales ticked up from April, and the crazy way we measure pricing is up too:
Though the pricing rally is continuing, we gotta be near the end. June will probably be the peak for 2023.
Above is a sampling of the 163 NSDCC detached-home sales in May! Some details here:
The fascinating phenomenon of paying over the list price continued last month.
The practice is fairly unpredictable and doesn’t appear to be rooted in reason and logic, mostly due to the lack of uniformity in the presentations. If every property was tuned up nicely and priced attractively, there might be some trends to follow but they aren’t obvious currently.
There were more sales that closed for $100,000+ UNDER the list price, than over!
The scattered results will frustrate the binary folks who just want to know if prices are going up or down. The answer is YES!
The monthly sales might have peaked for the year though:
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
