Slow-Motion Drip

by Jim the Realtor | Nov 1, 2011 | Foreclosure Count, REO Counts, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 7 comments

Someone asked, “JtR, why do you keep posting stories about the can-kicking programs being employed by the government?”

The answer is because the media and government keep insisting that we can’t handle a flood of foreclosures, and that together, they’ll do whatever is necessary to protect from what they think is certain peril. The media is complicit in this charade, because they won’t search out the truth – that the majority of people in this country pay their bills, and are tired of the coddling. 

It is important information for those potential sellers and buyers who are waiting for “the mess to be over” before proceeding.  If the government/media/banks are going to do whatever is necessary to drag this “mess” out for years, participants should devise their strategies accordingly.

Another reminder, from HW:

The housing market faces several more years with 800,000 to 1 million new foreclosed properties per year, according to Rick Sharga, an executive vice president with Carrington Mortgage Services.

Sharga recently left RealtyTrac, where he helped build a network that tracked foreclosure filings across the country. Recently, analysts at Bank of America Merill Lynch estimated REO sales would peak until 2013 when nearly 1.5 million properties would be sold.

According to RealtyTrac, there have been 8.9 million homes lost to foreclosure since 2007, the height of the credit crisis.

Sharga said based on lender behavior, he doesn’t see a spike happening, rather a slow, steady burn in order to spare home prices from further reductions. Today, roughly 4 million homes sell per year. If 1.5 million REO sold, that would be almost 40% of the market, which would be double the current market share of these properties.

“I think it’s less likely that we’re going to see a ‘peak’ year in REO sales that looks dramatically different than what we’ve been seeing over the past few years. This is partly due to relatively weak demand, partly due to what I’d call ‘inventory control’ being executed by the lenders and servicers, and partly due to the fact that foreclosure processing, evictions and redemption periods have all become extended, and often appear to be in a state of flux,” Sharga said.

The largest delay came when servicers were found to be improperly foreclosing on homeowners last year. RealtyTrac said the delays, investigations and ongoing attorneys general settlement talks pushed more than 1 million foreclosures that were supposed to occur in 2011 to 2012.

According to Lender Processing Services, mortgages facing foreclosure are delinquent an average of 611 days. Once a foreclosure is initiated, Sharga said it can take as long as 400 days to complete. So, he said, a loan entering foreclosure in December 2011 won’t hit the market as an REO until January or February 2013.

“Sales volume will be high in 2012, 2013 and probably 2014 as well,” Sharga said. “But it still seems more probable that we’ll see consistently high – yet closely managed – numbers of these sales over several years than it is that we’ll see a huge spike followed by a precipitous drop.”

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So I guess we can expect 1,000,000 or so foreclosures per year across the country until done, with no flood of trustee sales on the horizon. Combine those with the baby-boomer liquidation, which is already underway, and we can expect a steady stream of “under-improved” properties coming to market – which will keep a throttle on prices.

In October, there were 771 properties foreclosed in San Diego County, which was very similar to September’s 755.  In NSDCC there were 28 SFRs foreclosed, continuing the usual average of one a day – it’s a little too uniform, isn’t it? 

For those hoping for more well-priced new listings, it is a frustrating wait.  Here are three of the best foreclosed in October: