by Jim the Realtor | Sep 26, 2024 | 2024, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check |
Remember a few months ago when both Biden and the Padres were flailing and I said that the last half of the year would be so full of distractions that we’d be lucky to see 100 sales per month?
How ya feeling now?
Last month was spectacular and it looks like this month’s sales will beat the 154 from last September! There were 46 sales closed in the last week of September, 2023, and currently there are 60 pendings that went into escrow prior to 9/1/2024 so another 46 sales this month looks very doable.
The 123 sales above are today’s count.
Add 46 to it and we could reach 169 sales – and the pricing metrics are strong too!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 13, 2024 | Inventory, Sales and Price Check
What’s the slogan for Realtor.com? The website realtors trust? Yeah, haha…..who are you again? Realtor.com is the source for some wrong statistics picked up by Fox/KUSI news. The August YoY change in inventory for San Diego County is +31% for all property types, and +20% for detached-homes only. I have no idea where they are getting the +80% but it is way wrong. The 9% decrease in the median list price of unsold homes interests virtually no one, but Fox was happy to call it the ‘median sales price’ in their article to add some extra excitement:
SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — It may have gotten a little easier to buy a home in the San Diego market, according to a new report by Realtor.com.
In a housing overview of the nation’s largest metros last month, the median sales price for a home in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad area was $999,000 — a 9% decrease from the same time last year, according to the real estate listings website.
In addition, San Diego was among the top three metros that saw the largest growth in newly listed homes compared to last year. Cincinnati reported a 31% growth while Seattle saw 30% and San Diego had a nearly 23% increase, the report showed.
The inventory of homes for sale increased in all 50 of the nation’s largest metros compared with last year, but San Diego was also among the top three that saw the most growth as of last month.
San Diego saw an 80% increase in inventory while Tampa topped the list at 90% and Orlando reported nearly 77%, the report said.
However, although the median listing price for homes in the region fell compared to last year, the price per square foot has increased by just over one percent.
The housing market is also nowhere near its pre-pandemic condition. The median listing price in August for a home in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad market was almost 41% higher than the same time in 2019, according to Realtor.com.
The other 49 metros on the list had a similar story last month. The median price in Milwaukee, Wis., Philadelphia, Penn. and Cleveland, Ohio saw the biggest increases from 2019’s numbers.
Meanwhile, home sales nationwide remain sluggish. The typical home spent a week longer on the market in August compared to the same time last year, Realtor.com said.
https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/san-diegos-housing-inventory-grows-prices-drop-significantly/
The headline writers are dancing in the streets!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 3, 2024 | Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Encinitas, Sales and Price Check |
Scroll over the second graph to see how far we’ve come:
BTW in March, 2010, the 30-yr fixed rate was 4.95%.
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 27, 2024 | Forecasts, Sales and Price Check
I think we will experience a very similar trend in 2025.
A hot market and prices for the first four months, and mellow-down-easy for the rest of the year.
And April was already slowing. The first quarter of 2025 will be prime selling season!
Plan accordingly!
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“While both housing and inflation have slowed, the gap between the two is larger than historical norms, with our National Index averaging 2.8% more than the Consumer Price Index,” noted Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release. “That is a full percentage point above the 50-year average. Before accounting for inflation, home prices have risen over 1,100% since 1974, but have slightly more than doubled (111%) after accounting for inflation.”
New York saw the highest annual gain among the 20 cities, with prices climbing 9% in June, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with annual increases of 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively. Portland, Oregon, saw just a 0.8% annual rise in June, the smallest gain of the top cities.
Since housing affordability has been a major talking point in this election cycle, this month’s report also broke out home values by price tier, dividing each city’s market into three tiers. Looking just at large markets over the past five years, it found that 75% of the markets covered show low-price tiers rising faster than the overall market.
“For example, the lower tier of the Atlanta market has risen 18% faster than the middle- and higher-tiered homes,” Luke wrote in the release.
“New York’s low tier has the largest five-year outperformance, rising nearly 20% above the overall New York region,” he continued. “New York also has the largest divergence between low- and high-tier prices. Conversely, San Diego has seen the largest appreciation in higher-tier homes over the past five years.”
Prices in the overall San Diego market are up 72% in the past five years, but the high tier is up 79% versus 63% for the lower tier.
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 4, 2024 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
Rob Dawg suggested that we look at the quartile pricing again. The list pricing (above) has been very comparable to last year, but those are the unsolds. Below are the quartiles for the NSDCC monthly sales:
Pricing measured by quartiles is still above last year, and now the mortgage rates are below where they were towards the end of 2023.
Will pricing hold up the rest of the year? Probably. It will be the number of sales that will fluctuate first.
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 20, 2024 | 2024, Sales and Price Check, Zillow
San Diego’s YoY gain of 9.4% is third highest behind San Jose and Hartford, and our +55.4% since March, 2020 is #1 among the higher-end markets!
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 5, 2024 | 2024, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
Here are four tepid responses to the question on whether home prices will drop this summer:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-home-prices-finally-drop-this-summer-heres-what-experts-say/
The lame last paragraph sums it up:
The bottom line
The real estate market seems unlikely to experience significant price decreases nationally this summer, but it’s possible that in specific local markets, there will be dips. Still, until conditions change, like with more housing inventory, it could be tough for prices to decrease. Even then, it could take time for pent-up demand to temper, but it’s possible that overall affordability at least increases, such as if mortgage rates drop.
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You can’t come to much of a conclusion about summer pricing in July, but let’s check the data! How we measure the pricing has been strong all year between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
The world is too crazy for something not to give. My opinion of the pricing trend above is that the higher-priced superior homes are gaining in market share (who wants to buy a dump in this environment?) and it’s providing a head-fake that disguises the truth.
What’s going to give is the number of sales – we may not see 152 monthly sales the rest of 2024.
The commission debacle will be discouraging to the marketplace, mortgage rates aren’t going down enough to make a difference, and the political firestorm will get worse. The only way a buyer will ignore all of that and keep buying is if they see the perfect home.
There will be some nice deals for those who are willing to dig them out.
But I think by the screwy ways we measure it, the NSDCC pricing will look fairly strong, but the best precursor of the future – the number of sales – will be dropping the rest of the year, which will create even more softness. Buyers won’t feel confident about the price they are paying unless they have some decent comps to rely on, and those will be few and far between.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 28, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check
It’s the last business day of June, and while there will be a few more sales added to this total, there will be at least 10% fewer closings than last month:
updated June 30th
The median pricing is higher this month, but I don’t think that means home prices in general are rising. It’s probably because the more desirable properties are the ones selling.
The red numbers suggest the market is slowing down.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 4, 2024 | 2024, Graphs of Market Indicators, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check
None of the pricing metrics are great but at least they demonstrate the trends over time. These graphs above are showing the latest data, including last month, and it’s all fairly positive….for now. With the extra inventory, buyers aren’t going to pay crazy money unless they see the perfect house. Sellers aren’t going to give them away though, so the trend for the rest of 2024 should be flat.
These graphs are interactive so scroll over to see the numbers.
There is extra unsold inventory but nobody is going to call this a flood, especially vs. 2019:
Sales will suffer as long as rates and prices are high. Have we gotten used to having fewer sales yet? The trend is going to last a while – probably for years to come:
Populations from the 2020 Census:
Carlsbad: 114,746
Encinitas: 62,007
Carmel Valley, 92130: 61,595
Rancho Santa Fe: 9,344
by Jim the Realtor | May 30, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Market Surge, Sales and Price Check |
Here’s a snapshot of how fast the local market has changed. It went from a relatively-modest suburban area where 3/4s of the houses sold for less than a million dollars in 2003……to a very affluent market!
NSDCC Detached-Homes Annual Sales
True, the inflation rate since 2003 was 70% and a dollar doesn’t buy what it used to back then. But the median sales price went up from $730,000 in 2003 to $2,344,000 this month – an increase of 320%!
