April Results So Far

There may be a lot of turbulence around real estate these days, but sales keep happening!

The pricing metrics are up 5%-6% since last April, and we’re not done yet with sales this month. Helped by Easter being on March 31st this year, the final count of closings for April, 2024 is probably going to exceed last year’s 165 sales – wow!

NSDCC First Quarter Comparisons

The first quarter of 2024 is the only 1Q in recent history to have increases in BOTH the number of listings AND the median list price. Previously, increases in pricing had a corresponding dip in the number of listings available for buyers to consider.

If you are like me, you’ve seen a noticeable surge in seller optimism in 2024. It’s not just the median list price that is up 8%, doesn’t it seem like everything is $200,000 higher than last year?

NSDCC February Sales, Prelim

This month’s housing stats will benefit from an extra business day due to the leap year, but it will just be icing on the cake. The sales this month have already blown by last February, in spite of higher pricing.

I think we can say that we’re back to frenzy-like conditions:

Some agents insist on inputting their listings of attached homes in the SFR category. There has only been ONE house sale under $1,000,000 in the last three Februarys.

This month’s total will probably be around 160-170 sales, which is phenomenal when you consider that we had similar monthly sales counts when pricing was half of what it is today! Not only that, but the number of sales will be close to the total number of listings too – probably closer than during the peak frenzy years.

With declining sales across the country, there are complaints about how bad the market has been, and people are wondering when it will get ‘better’. Better? This is great, relatively, and this is what we’re going to have for the next few years because the boomers are still relatively young (half are still working).

It will take a surge of new listings, and/or a drop in demand, which you’d think would happen naturally as prices go higher. But not yet.

How’s the flow of new listings?

After a hot January that was +18% YoY, the February listings have cooled off – though there will be late-reporters that should get this year’s count up to 220-ish:

NSDCC Monthly Listings

Two months into the new year, I think we have found our groove. The inventory will stay low, and the special homes will keep blowing off the market – with the rest having to find their way.

Zillow Local Appreciation Guesses, 2024

If Zillow made their predictions based on traffic to their website, it would be impressive. I’m not sure how they figure these though.

Generally, they are expecting +3% to 4% in home values around here over the next 12 months:

Carlsbad 92008

Carlsbad 92009

Carlsbad 92010

Carlsbad 92011

Carmel Valley 92130

Del Mar 92014

Encinitas 92024

Rancho Santa Fe 92067

NSDCC January Sales & Pricing

January Detached-Home Sales & Pricing, La Jolla to Carlsbad

It was in June, 2022 that Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that spiked mortgage rates would “reset” the “overheated” pandemic housing market.

Last month had the highest pricing metrics AND the highest January mortgage rate in recent history!

NSDCC Jan. Listings & Sales, Prelim

As of February 1st, the January sales count is 103, with the median sales price at $2,275,000, which is a nice pop over the 87 sales from last month. The graph above shows how any momentum was thwarted by rising rates in October, and some relief now is probably contributing to more sales and activity locally (though the mortgage purchase apps were down 11% nationwide today).

By Monday we’ll be able to crown Joe as the winner of the Padres tickets!

Slightly more inventory is the best-case scenario for a healthy selling season. Too many new listings might cause buyers to pause and see where it’s going, but we’re not close to a surge today. A bigger threat would be running out of affluent buyers.

217 – January 2024 Listings (205 in January, 2023)

103 – January Sales so far (median sales price = $2,275,000)

42 – January Sales Under $2,000,000

15 – January Sales Over $4,000,000

$1,100,000 – Lowest-priced sale in January (a detached condo)

$18,500,000 – Highest-priced sale in January (Oceanfront sold off-market)

20 – Median Days on Market

February should be incredible with momentum increasing rapidly. The selling season is here!

Mortgage tip: For those getting a loan under $1,000,000, you can get an FHA rate in the high-5s today!

NSDCC Annual Data

Obviously, this year isn’t over but it’s close – and we’ll be lucky to hit 1,800 sales this year (there have been 22 sales closed in December so far).

The identical Sales/Listings percentage over the last two years includes a blazing hot first half of 2022 so the demand has been steady-hot, but there just isn’t the inventory like we used to have.

Pricing?

The median LIST price in 2022 and 2023 was the same $2,199,000 each year. In 2022, people preferred to pay over list, and this year…..not so much!

No evidence yet of a possible surge in inventory next year:

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