by Jim the Realtor | Sep 24, 2024 | Same-House Sales
With the July index being a 3-month weighted average, this should be the last of the stronger readings of 2024 and the momentum should taper off for the rest of the year. I like using the non-seasonally adjusted index because we can handle the truth. The San Diego seasonally-adjusted index dropped 0.58% month-over-month.
Mid-Day Edit: The index is released on the last Tuesday of the month but I think it caught the S&P staff off guard because their dissemination of the data is still lagging. But finally on their webite they noted that the non-seasonally adjusted index DROPPED the 0.58%, not the seasonally-adjusted (which rose 0.12%).
From cnbc:
New York saw the highest annual gain among the 20 cities, with prices climbing 9% in June, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with annual increases of 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively. Portland, Oregon, saw just a 0.8% annual rise in June, the smallest gain of the top cities.
Since housing affordability has been a major talking point in this election cycle, this month’s report also broke out home values by price tier, dividing each city’s market into three tiers. Looking just at large markets over the past five years, it found that 75% of the markets covered show low-price tiers rising faster than the overall market.
“For example, the lower tier of the Atlanta market has risen 18% faster than the middle- and higher-tiered homes,” Luke wrote in the release.
“New York’s low tier has the largest five-year outperformance, rising nearly 20% above the overall New York region,” he continued. “New York also has the largest divergence between low- and high-tier prices. Conversely, San Diego has seen the largest appreciation in higher-tier homes over the past five years.”
Prices in the overall San Diego market are up 72% in the past five years, but the high tier is up 79% versus 63% for the lower tier.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/27/home-prices-hit-record-high-in-june-on-sp-case-shiller-index.html
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 30, 2024 | Same-House Sales |
The local Case-Shiller Index has been surging lately but I think we’ll be lucky if the next reading is half of the 9.1% YoY gain we have here:
San Diego Case-Shiller Index
New York reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 9.4% increase in May, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with increases of 9.1% and 8.6%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching a 1.0% annual increase in May.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 26, 2024 | Same-House Sales |
San Diego has been the #1 market in America for the last six months! But the momentum is slowing (the previous blog post that showed +4.6% must have been for April-Jun).
San Diego Case-Shiller Index
The San Diego Case-Shiller Index is at an all-time high, and is 75% higher than it was in November, 2005 which was the peak before the GFC.
The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, dropping from a 7.5% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest annual gain among the 20 cities in April with a 10.3% increase this month, followed by New York and Chicago, with increases of 9.4% and 8.7%.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 24, 2024 | Same-House Sales
The local Case-Shiller will be released tomorrow, and if it’s in line with this data above, it’s going to help demonstrate how hot the market started in 2024.
If the market takes a breather for the rest of 2024, it should add fuel to the Spring 2025 Selling Season starting earlier (January) and hotter than ever – especially if rates are lower!
by Jim the Realtor | May 28, 2024 | Same-House Sales
The San Diego Case-Shiller Index is at an all-time high, and it’s 75% higher than it was in November, 2005 which was the peak before the GFC (this blog began in September, 2005).
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally Adjusted
“This month’s report boasts another all-time high,” says Brian D. Luke of S&P Dow Jones Indices. “We’ve witnessed records repeatedly break in both stock and housing markets over the past year.”
“San Diego stands out with an impressive 11.1% annual gain, followed closely by New York, Cleveland, and Los Angeles, indicating a strong demand for urban markets,” he said.
Prices grew slightly faster in San Francisco and Seattle than in San Diego in March, but those cities’ real estate markets has fallen further, and San Diego remains far ahead over the past 12 months.
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 30, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales |
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally Adjusted
| Month |
San Diego CSI |
M-o-M chg |
Y-o-Y chg |
| Jan 22 |
384.13 |
+2.5% |
+27.2% |
| Feb |
401.44 |
+4.6% |
+28.9% |
| Mar |
416.45 |
+3.8% |
+29.9% |
| Apr |
425.90 |
+2.3% |
+28.5% |
| May |
427.80 |
+0.5% |
+25.2% |
| Jun |
424.83 |
-0.7% |
+21.6% |
| Jul |
414.03 |
-2.6% |
+16.5% |
| Aug |
402.48 |
-2.8% |
+12.7% |
| Sep |
393.80 |
-2.1% |
+9.5% |
| Oct |
390.61 |
-0.7% |
+7.6% |
| Nov |
385.40 |
-1.5% |
+4.9% |
| Dec |
380.09 |
-1.3% |
+1.6% |
| Jan 23 |
378.79 |
-0.4% |
-1.3% |
| Feb |
384.46 |
+1.6% |
-4.1% |
| Mar |
394.05 |
+2.5% |
-5.3% |
| Apr |
401.90 |
+2.0% |
-5.7% |
| May |
409.32 |
+1.9% |
-4.3% |
| Jun |
413.72 |
+1.1% |
-2.3% |
| Jul |
416.68 |
+0.7% |
+0.6% |
| Aug |
419.08 |
+0.5% |
+4.1% |
| Sep |
419.35 |
+0.0% |
+6.4% |
| Oct |
418.82 |
-0.1% |
+7.2% |
| Nov |
416.36 |
-0.6% |
+8.0% |
| Dec |
413.45 |
-0.7% |
+8.8% |
| Jan 24 |
421.34 |
+1.9% |
+11.2% |
| Feb |
428.26 |
+1.6% |
+11.4% |
The local Case-Shiller Index is back to the peak of May, 2022!
The next two readings will likely be +2.0% month-over-month.
The 20- City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3%, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.4% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Detroit , with an increase of 8.9%. Portland, though still holding the lowest rank after reporting two consecutive months of the smallest year-over-year growth, had a significant increase in annual gain of 2.2% in February.
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 26, 2024 | 2024, Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally Adjusted
| Month |
SD CSI |
M-o-M chg |
Y-o-Y chg |
| Jan 22 |
384.13 |
+2.5% |
+27.2% |
| Feb |
401.44 |
+4.6% |
+28.9% |
| Mar |
416.45 |
+3.8% |
+29.9% |
| Apr |
425.90 |
+2.3% |
+28.5% |
| May |
427.80 |
+0.5% |
+25.2% |
| Jun |
424.83 |
-0.7% |
+21.6% |
| Jul |
414.03 |
-2.6% |
+16.5% |
| Aug |
402.48 |
-2.8% |
+12.7% |
| Sep |
393.80 |
-2.1% |
+9.5% |
| Oct |
390.61 |
-0.7% |
+7.6% |
| Nov |
385.40 |
-1.5% |
+4.9% |
| Dec |
380.09 |
-1.3% |
+1.6% |
| Jan 23 |
378.79 |
-0.4% |
-1.3% |
| Feb |
384.46 |
+1.6% |
-4.1% |
| Mar |
394.05 |
+2.5% |
-5.3% |
| Apr |
401.90 |
+2.0% |
-5.7% |
| May |
409.32 |
+1.9% |
-4.3% |
| Jun |
413.72 |
+1.1% |
-2.3% |
| Jul |
416.68 |
+0.7% |
+0.6% |
| Aug |
419.08 |
+0.5% |
+4.1% |
| Sep |
419.35 |
+0.0% |
+6.4% |
| Oct |
418.82 |
-0.1% |
+7.2% |
| Nov |
416.36 |
-0.6% |
+8.0% |
| Dec |
413.45 |
-0.7% |
+8.8% |
| Jan 24 |
421.34 |
+1.9% |
+11.2% |
It has felt like prices have been surging this year, and here is more evidence. The record high was 427.80 in May, 2022, and it should be back to that level by the next reading.
We’re in the midst of all-time record-high pricing today!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 27, 2024 | Same-House Sales
After mortgage rates went up in 2022, the local Case-Shiller Index was jarred with a 12.1% drop over the subsequent eight months. The end of 2023 held up much better, logging only a slight decline of -1.4% in the last three months of the year:
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.0%, up from a 6.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous month.
San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in December, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase. Portland showed a 0.3% increase this month, holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth.
“U.S. home prices faced significant headwinds in the fourth quarter of 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued its streak of seven consecutive record highs in 2023.”
“2023 U.S. housing gains haven’t followed such a synchronous pattern since the COVID housing boom. The term ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ seems appropriate given broad-based performance in the U.S. housing sector. All 20 markets reported yearly gains for the first time this year, with four markets rising over 8%. Portland eked out a positive annual gain after 11 months of declines. Regionally, the Midwest and Northeast both experienced the greatest annual appreciation with 6.7%.”
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 30, 2024 | Same-House Sales |
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and the 10-City Composite posted month-over-month increases of 0.2%, while the 20-City Composite posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%.
“U.S. home prices edged downward from their all-time high in November,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI. “The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months. Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.”
“November’s year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%. Detroit held its position as the best performing market for the third month in a row, accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining its second spot in the nation. Barring a late surge from another market, those cities will vie for the ‘housing market of the year’ as the best performing city in our composite.”
“Six cities registered a new all-time high in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland). Portland remains the lone market in annual decline. The Northeast and Midwest recorded the largest gains with returns of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Other regions are not far behind with the slowest gains in the West of 3%. This month’s report revealed the narrowest spread of performance across the nation since the first quarter of 2021.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The decline in the local index is picking up speed, but it’s not falling as fast as it was last year.
Who cares – September, October, and November were forever ago.
Either a house has been improved to sell and gets a lot of attention, or it sits.
Take our listing here:
Judging by the statistics, Zillow thinks this house should sell fast, a smaller house down the street just had seven offers and sold over $1,400,000, and we are up to NINE offers on our similarly-priced new listing. But here the owner refused to do staging, in spite of our recommendation – and they have bought and sold three other houses with us!
The impact? Only two people came to the open house on Saturday, and we haven’t sniffed an offer.
Buyers don’t have the vision or patience to imagine what a house could be – they are attracted to those homes who have already done the work for them. At these prices, you can’t blame them!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 26, 2023 | Same-House Sales |
Last year, the index was falling faster than this year (another good sign going into 2024). There might be some noise in the next three readings, but the second half of 2023 should wind up flat at worst.
The index dropped 11% in the second half of 2022, and currently the second half of 2023 is +1.1%.
The October index is 2% below the all-time high in May, 2022, and is +68% from when this blog started!
