2022 Stats, La Jolla to Carlsbad

by | Mar 24, 2022 | 2022, Frenzy, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

The NSDCC detached-home stats in the Jan 1st-to-March 15th period are remarkable:

Year
New Listings
# of Sales
Median List Price
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
2016
1,194
436
$1,146,450
$1,102,792
58
2017
1,040
459
$1,239,500
$1,200,000
53
2018
1,102
420
$1,327,000
$1,297,000
20
2019
1,056
430
$1,299,499
$1,282,500
29
2020
934
456
$1,467,500
$1,430,000
30
2021
801
534
$1,749,000
$1,775,000
14
2022
546
400
$2,250,000
$2,372,500
10

The 2022 median sales price is 34% higher than in the same period last year (which was +24% above 2020!)

The median sales price is 5.4% higher than the median list price.

Sales are holding their own, in spite of having around half of the ‘normal’ inventory!

Waiting Until Later

by | Mar 24, 2022 | Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market | 2 comments

We are in the midst of the fastest increase in mortgage rates in history.

It was only 6-8 months ago that home buyers were financing their purchase with a 30-year fixed rate in the twos. Now they are in the fours!

We had the lowest rates ever due to the pandemic. They aren’t coming back.

It is natural for home sellers to think it might be better to wait until later – especially if they tested the market with an aspirational price, and the home didn’t sell.

But the 30-year fixed rates are heading above 5%, which won’t bode well for buyers OR sellers.

What are other alternatives?

  1. Sellers offer to buy down the interest rate for buyers (guarantee a lower rate).
  2. Sellers complete more repairs/upgrades to stand out from others.
  3. Sellers offer a larger commission to the buyer-agents.
  4. Get an adjustable-rate mortgage.

I’ve already seen adjustable-rate mortgages starting at 2.375% for ten years, up to $1,600,000 with a 10% down payment.  When buyers compare those to a 30-year fixed payment, they will be very tempted.

We don’t need the frenzy to last forever – we just need to get comfortable with a post-frenzy market.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03222022

Spring Break

by | Mar 23, 2022 | Frenzy, Market Conditions | 7 comments

Real estate practices have been evolving with the frenzy.

The market used to be lively seven days a week, but that’s gone away.  Looking at homes during the week is futile now, because the new listings tend to hit the MLS on Thursday or Friday with NO SHOWINGS UNTIL OPEN HOUSES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY!

By Monday, the listing agents shut it down with NO MORE SHOWINGS, NO MORE OFFERS.

It makes you wonder how the market will react to spring break/tax day.

All the NSDCC schools except Carlsbad are taking spring break between April 4-8, which will limit the action on those weekends of April 2-3 and April 9-10.  Then income taxes are due the day after Easter, which is on April 17th. The Carlsbad spring break is April 18-22.

Will agents recognize the schedule, and alter their showing plans?

If not, will the lighter traffic cause those open houses attendees to think the market is getting soft?

The end of the frenzy might be forming right before our eyes!

Compass #1 in San Diego in 2021

by | Mar 22, 2022 | Compass

Compass has been in business locally for four years! Last year, we averaged 7.5 sales per agent.

It’s remarkable how Compass and eXp came into a rather staid and unchallenged brokerage environment and hired away nearly 2,400 productive agents so quickly.

Inventory Watch

by | Mar 21, 2022 | 2022, Frenzy, Inventory | 5 comments

Numerically, the inventory isn’t getting any better yet:

NSDCC New Listings between March 1-15:

2018: 228

2019: 277

2020: 221

2021: 199

2022: 120

There will be a few more added to this year’s total but the homedemic continues – without additional inventory, the market will struggle to pick up momentum. The intensity of the fight over the quality homes could increase while other buyers have a hard time keeping their chops up, and become disinterested.

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Spring Clean

by | Mar 20, 2022 | Spring Kick

Hat tip Leonard @Compass:

Today is the last day of Winter 2022, and as Spring arrives, consider the following:

1. Clean up winter debris, old leaves, fallen branches, etc.

2. Check your roof. Winter winds may have caused damage that requires your attention.

3. Clean out gutters: they probably collected all sorts of debris over winter.

4. Clean and/or replace AC filters.

5. Deep clean your dryer vent and other appliances.

6. Check your washing machine hoses: Maybe install a leak detector?

7. Clean and repair screens…the bugs are coming!

8. Pressure wash decks, fences, etc. and check for damages.

9. Fix cracks in sidewalks and driveways before rains cause more decay.

10. Paint! Some surfaces may be overdue for some painting.

11. Replace smoke detector batteries if they are not hard wired.

12. Sharpen blades for garden equipment and kitchen knives.

13. Check caulking around doors and windows to conserve energy.

14. Trim bushes/trees and clean thoroughly around any mechanical equipment.

15. Drain your water heater to clear out sediment.

Ongoing small maintenance items can prevent larger ones. Keeping any home in tip-top shape year-round is smart. Doing these things just before selling is wonderful for the next homeowner, but you may wish to enjoy a spiffy home too!

Plane Pod

by | Mar 19, 2022 | ADU

“We really didn’t intend selling them,” says Kevin Regan over the phone from the northwest of Ireland.

Converting a slice of airplane into a sleek and durable home office had been a personal project in 2021, but after his sister-in-law put photos of the cabin on social media, requests rolled in and things started to snowball.

Now, Regan and his business partner Shane Thornton — both builders by trade — have started their own company named Aeropod, recycling commercial airplanes into home offices, glamping pods and ready-made accommodation.

They’ve only spent €100 (about $110) so far on advertising (the company’s still “brand new out of the wrapper!,” says Regan) but they’ve already sold 11 pods and are preparing to have more shipped to wherever clients want them.

Airplanes are built to last. Strong, thickly insulated, and made of sturdy aluminum alloys. And with some 15,000 aircraft estimated to be due for retirement in the next 20 years, there’s a steady supply of them available for dismantling and recycling.

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Downside Sticky

by | Mar 19, 2022 | Market Conditions | 1 comment

Even though we are racing towards mortgage rates in the 5s (should be there by summer), there won’t be much adjustment by sellers because they aren’t going to give it away!

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