Over List, February

The market is heating up fast and early this year!  The majority of home buyers paid over the list price in February, and these were decisions mostly made in January:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

October: 45%

November: 48%

December: 48%

January: 49%

February: 60%

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Even though the 2022 listings count for the first two months of the year is 33% BELOW the count in 2021, sales are only 16% under the average for the last five years:

NSDCC January + February Sales

2017: 174 + 172 = 346

2018: 149 + 162 = 311

2019: 150 + 174 = 324

2020: 182 + 184 = 366

2021: 187 + 224 = 411

2022: 140 + 156 = 296

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NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000
Feb
156
$3,058,406
$3,104,854
$2,149,500
$2,386,500

The average sales price went up 7% MoM in January, and 9% in February.

The median sales price went up 4% MoM in January, and 7% in February.

THE MEDIAN SALES PRICE WENT UP 7% IN ONE MONTH!

This is the craziest real estate market ever – and the spring selling season is just getting started!

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NSDCC February Sales, Preliminary

It’s early, and the final February sales count will probably wind up around 165-170, which is in line with years prior to 2021. However, the pricing is nuts – and related to the number of homes for sale!

Year
February Listings
# of Sales
Median List Price
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
2017
395
172
$1,299,900
$1,270,000
51
2018
358
162
$1,290,000
$1,275,000
13
2019
361
174
$1,275,000
$1,275,000
33
2020
360
184
$1,434,000
$1,376,500
29
2021
313
224
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
14
2022
193
156
$2,149,500
$2,386,500
9

LAST MONTH, THE MEDIAN SALES PRICE WAS 11% HIGHER THAN THE MEDIAN LIST PRICE!

Bubbleinfo Readers

Do you ever wonder who else is reading this blog?

Here are some demographics for readers in the first two months of 2022:

The number of users were running around 5,000 per month last year, so welcome newcomers!

About half of the audience is between the ages of 25-44, which is promising:

I’m glad to see that gender is fairly even, with 58% male and 42% female readers:

Here’s where you are from:

Ashburn, Virginia is ‘a major hub for Internet traffic, due to its many data centers’.  It is probably where many of the bots originate.

Thank you for being here.  If you, or someone you know, is thinking of moving, I’d sure appreciate a call!

Zillow Now Says +30% Appreciation

Yesterday Bill talked about how the median home prices have picked up:

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/median-vs-repeat-sales-index-house-198

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Zillow has also done a reversal on where they think home prices are going.

After forecasting three months in a row that homes in our local zip codes would be rising around 20% in 2022, their most recent guesses dropped to around +16% here:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2022/02/07/zillow-way-off/

They have been sending me their forecasts one by one over a couple of weeks.  Here are their forecasts I’ve received at the end of February for our local areas (more to come):

NW Carlsbad, 92008

SE Carlsbad, 92009

NE Carlsbad, 92010

Carmel Valley 92130

Del Mar, 92014

Encinitas, 92024

La Jolla, 92037

Rancho Santa Fe, 92067

West RB, 92127

Can we do +30% two years in a row?  Or is Zillow off their rocker?

They do have something that none of the ivory-tower economists have – the real estate viewer data.

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