Everyone had this 8-track, didn’t they?
The sun don’t shine
The moon don’t move the tides,
To wash me clean
The sun don’t shine
The moon don’t move the tides
To wash me clean
Why so unforgiving, and why so cold
Been a long time crossing Bridge of Sighs
Cold wind blows
The Gods look down in anger,
On this poor child
Cold wind blows
And Gods look down in anger,
On this poor child
Why so unforgiving and why so cold
Been a long time crossing Bridge of Sighs
The National Association of Realtors published their support of the Clear Cooperation Policy yesterday, and added a change they called Delayed Marketing Exempt Listings.
As usual, they are trying to make everyone happy, resulting in nobody being happy.
They can’t even use proper punctuation. Isn’t there a hyphen missing?
I don’t fully know what their intention, but it looks like they opened the door to listing agents who want to advertise their listings on their own websites before putting them on the search portals. The #16 above is from the FAQs:
https://www.nar.realtor/about-nar/policies/multiple-listing-options-for-sellers#faq
Listing agents are going to do what they feel is in their best interest, and in the best interest of their sellers (probably in that order, unfortunately). Until the DOJ lays down a specific law preventing them, off-market sales will keep happening.
Natalie has had her real estate license for a week, and she’s already figured it out:
I’ve been listening to the podcast Morning Brew Daily as a way to stay up to date on current events without having to read too many doomsday headlines. Happy to say it’s working!
A big topic lately for MBD and many news sources is the recent tariffs. There’s lots of talk about how it’ll affect prices on groceries, alcohol, cars, gas, etc., but how will it affect housing?
As another way to stay more educated, I subscribed to Bill McBride’s substack, a source for many of Jim’s blog posts. In this recent one, he talks about how the recent policies, mainly related to tariffs and immigration, will affect housing:
A few impacts:
That last part of the final sentence seemed crazy to me since I often hear about how there is a nationwide shortage of homes for sale and rent. So less demand?! That seems like a solution to our problem, right?
But upon thinking about it more, I think there’s just a massive shortage for attractive housing in desirable areas. And living in LA and working in San Diego real estate, I tend to be focused on some of the most desirable areas in the country.
I was just in the rental market looking for an apartment in West LA. My first day touring, I saw seven apartments in two hours and the options were rough. Most places were old, outdated, and/or dark, plus lacked the desirable add-ons: parking, outdoor space, updated appliances, ample storage, etc. (In LA, I would argue parking is a necessity, but to each their own.) Regardless, of those seven apartments, I finished the day thinking I could probably be happy in only two of them, alright in two others, and miserable living in the rest.
I toured these apartments about 3 weeks ago and almost all are still listed for lease. So my question remains, is there an actual shortage for housing? Or is Bill right and demand is starting to decrease?
Maybe there is sufficient housing in our areas but property upkeep and updating is getting too expensive so sellers/landlords can’t afford to make their listings attractive? And if they can afford to, they’re charging exorbitant prices because we’re in desirable areas and people want to live happily here.
I don’t have all the answers, but some food for thought!
And in case you’re wondering, my boyfriend and I signed the lease for one of the two apartments I said I’d be happy in and got the keys on Saturday – moving in this week!
Last year, the index really popped with all the early action in the first quarter.
This year, pricing got off to a slower start and with the additional inventory weighing on the market, there will be more sellers having to settle for less than they thought. But they will still be making huge gains over what they paid!
“Home price growth continued to moderate in January, reflecting a clear two-part story across the past year,” says Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index posted a 4.1% annual gain, with the bulk of appreciation—4.8%—occurring in the first half of the year. Prices declined 0.7% in the second half, as high mortgage rates and affordability constraints weighed on buyer demand and market activity.
“Among the 20 metro areas tracked by the Composite 20, New York City led annual gains with a 7.7% rise, followed closely by Chicago (7.5%) and Boston (6.5%). Tampa was the only market to post a year over-year decline, falling 1.5%. However, the second half of the year told a different story: San Francisco posted the largest six-month decline at 3.4%, followed by Tampa at 3.2%. Only four of the 20 cities managed to eke out price increases during this period—New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and Boston—highlighting broad-based cooling.
“Rising mortgage rates throughout the year elevated monthly payment burdens, which, combined with already high home prices, pushed affordability to multi-decade lows in many regions. This likely contributed to subdued activity in the back half of the year, with both buyers and sellers exercising caution. Inventory constraints also remain a challenge, particularly in legacy metro areas, where limited new construction continues to restrict supply.
“The strength in markets like New York and Chicago may reflect more normalized valuations relative to frothier regions, along with continued urban recovery trends post-pandemic. On the other hand, Sunbelt markets that experienced sharp run-ups earlier in the cycle—like Tampa and Phoenix—have seen the most pronounced slowdowns.
This was in the confidential remarks of a listing priced at $870,000, and the agent is still has it in the active bin. Hopefully for his sake, it’s in escrow by now!
Alternative title for this blog post: How Many Flippers Are Out There?
Statistics are a funny thing and the quirks that happen regularly are interesting.
In our categories of active listings (below), THREE of the four has the exact same number of actives this week as they had last week!
I wouldn’t consider the market as stagnant. It’s more of an equilibrium where the number of new listings are replacing the new pendings at a similar pace. It probably means we are at or near peak Spring Selling Season! It would be hard to imagine that it could get any hotter which would cause the active-listings count to recede?
But look at the last two years in the graph above. It’s right around this time of year that the growth of active listings did mellow out the most, before climbing again in late-April/May.
Multiple offers on our new listing in the Del Sur/Crosby area of Rancho Bernardo – the backyard was a big hit!
4949 San Jacinto West, Morro Hills
5 br/4.5 ba, 4,188sf
YB: 1990
1.05-acre lot
LP = $1,650,000
The classic old-Spanish-style has been the preferred SoCal look for decades, and here’s a terrific example! Red barrel-tile roof, archways inside and out, grand foyer, and sparkling pool all on the 1.05-acre gated lot full of citrus and avocados! Five bedrooms means room for everyone (with a bedroom and full bath downstairs), remodeled bathrooms, newer HVAC, hardwoods, walk-in pantry, walk-in primary closet, and beautiful sunset views! Do you want to get out of the rat race but still be close to town? Morro Hills in southern Fallbrook is for you – and this old-Spanish charmer is cool! Trees on site: Navel and valencia oranges, tangerine, lime, lemon, peach, kumquat, plum, plus three apple trees!
Open today 12-2pm!
https://www.compass.com/listing/4949-san-jacinto-circle-west-fallbrook-ca-92028/1801067495862896353/
If you want to stay closer to San Diego and don’t mind living in the desert, then check out the homes that Davidson Communities is building in Cotino, a master-planned community in Rancho Mirage!
Bill doesn’t have pricing on his homes yet but the community is selling in the high-$1 millions to low-$2 millions.
https://homes.storylivingbydisney.com/#/journey/package-exteriors
