Are Realtor Commissions Negotiable?

Are realtor commissions negotiable?

Sure….how high do you want to go? 😆

Commissions aren’t all the same, just like agents aren’t all the same. Different agents charge different rates because they do different things for the consumer. Commissions/fees range from $100 to 7%. Nice range!

So if all that matters is paying less for your agent, then shop around – there are plenty of discount agents. You might consider hiring the very best agent you can find – one who pays for themselves, and more.

This is the question that has never been answered by the industry:

“If agents employ different skill sets and services, why do they all get paid the same?

It was mentioned in the recent lawsuit, and they presented it as part of their case:

72. Additionally, because the Rule requires a blanket offer, the Rule compels home sellers to make this financial offer without regard to the experience of the buyer-broker or the services or value they are providing — in other words, the Rule treats all buying brokers and their services the same. The seller is required to offer the same fee to a buyer-broker with little or no experience as that offered to a buyer-broker with twenty years of valuable experience. Accordingly, there is a significant level of uniformity in the payments that sellers must pay to buyer-brokers.

73. As a result, there is little relationship between the commission and quality of the service. “Skilled, experienced agents and brokers charge about the same price as agents with little experience and limited knowledge of how to best serve the consumer clients.” In a price-competitive market, less experienced and less skilled brokers and salespersons would be offering consumers lower commission rates, but they have no incentive to do so because of the Rule.

74. The Rule creates tremendous pressure on sellers to offer the “standard” supra-competitive commission that has long been maintained in this industry. Seller-brokers know that if the published, blanket offer is less than the “standard” commission, many buyer-brokers will “steer” home buyers to the residential properties that provide the higher standard commission.

The changes or fines from the lawsuit(s) probably won’t matter much today. Offering no commissions to buyer-agents is a nice idea, and you’d think it would cause agents to publicize the full set of productive services they offer to their buyers to convince them to pay the fee. Don’t get your hopes up.

Ideally, the consumer would research the detailed resumes and work histories of each prospective agent and make an informed decision. The agent pages on Zillow do provide the basics, but based on results, consumers aren’t using them much.

It’s why realtors have a lousy reputation – consumers keep hiring the inexperienced/bad agents, and the industry doesn’t mind because they make more profit off them.

Get Good Help!

Local Zillow 1-Year Forecasts

These are getting into the lazy zone now because predicting 2% to 4% increases over the next 12 months doesn’t take any real forecasting – they are just safe guesses based on historical norms which flew out the window with rising rates about 18 months ago.

They might end of being right, but at what cost? Plunging sales. To conduct real price discovery we would need a surge of new listings to test the demand, if any. Having 100 or so sales every month in an area of 300,000 people will keep prices elevated because that’s not much of a test – the market is just barely alive.

NW Carlsbad – 92008

SE Carlsbad – 92009

NE Carlsbad – 92010

Del Mar – 92014

Encinitas – 92024

La Jolla – 92037

Rancho Santa Fe – 92067

NAR Lawsuit – The Aftermath, Part 2

Now what?

The National Association of Realtors clearly underestimated the chances of losing this case – and the others to come. They must have thought that touting their 100-year old Code of Ethics was all that was needed to impress people, and instead they found out that it doesn’t.

What doesn’t get addressed is the common belief that realtors are overpaid.

It is a wide-spread belief. Even Joe Kernen, a guy who works 15 hours per week and gets paid between $3,000,000 and $22,000,000 per year (depending on the website), has to open his CNBC show today with the declaration that 6% commissions are too much, and 1% would be more like it.

This is what needs to be addressed. Can agents explain their value?

Listing agents are used to making a presentation to homeowners, but 80% of the time, the sellers have already decided on who they will hire so the presentation doesn’t have to be great. Buyer-agents rarely discuss what they do – they just have people jump in their car and go look at houses.

The judge and/or the Department of Justice will rule on future sellers paying the buyer-agent commission. If sellers are allowed to pay a commission to the buyer-agents, then their listing agent can counsel them properly on what rate to offer, and the status quo will endure. But it will be a game-changer if the sellers are no longer able to offer ANY commission to buyer-agents.

With the former, the listing agents will have to discuss the pros and cons in detail to the sellers, and agree to a comfortable amount. With the latter, the buyer-agents will have to create a presentation to convince their buyers to pay them directly. This will be a new practice, and they won’t be very good at it.

By the end of the day yesterday, I had already been notified of three different seminars being offered about using the Buyer-Broker Agreement. It sounds simple enough to the ivory-tower types – just get your buyers to pay you the commission! But they underestimate both sides.

Agents aren’t jumping at the chance to work with buyers in the current market.

It takes months or years for buyers to finally win the right home at the right price, and the abuse from the listing agents is mean and nasty along the way. Nobody plays by the same rules, and multiple offers are mishandled regularly, which delays the buyer finally getting a house.

The 2024 Selling Season will begin with buyer-agents pleading with their prospects to sign a contract to pay them a commission. It will only take a few months for this practice to get exposed. The buyers will be reluctant to sign, and those that do sign a contract will find out that it won’t change the outcome. It is still going to take months to find the right house, at the right price. There will still be the typical aggravations and shenanigans with the listing agents – most of whom now insist on buyers providing a bank statement and lender pre-approval letter just to see a house.

Because the local inventory is will be ultra-low, the desperation will cause buyers to blame their agent. It is a fact of life with both sellers and buyers – if they don’t get the outcome they want, it’s too easy to blame their agent (especially when it is true most of the time).

Will sellers and buyers be more diligent about who they hire?

They never have been – they just grab an agent and hope for the best. They don’t know the right questions to ask; they don’t want to waste time investigating thoroughly; and besides, the buyers just want a house, and the sellers just want their money.

This is where each agent and the industry at large could go a long way towards providing a solution.

If there was an outpouring of explanations on how the business works, what to expect, and why a consumer should pay the fee, it would help. Maybe write a blog or something!

Without a delberate attempt to educate everyone, the business will gravitate to the lowest common denominator – single agency, where buyers go direct to the listing agent, and the benefits of buyer-agency are slowly forgotten. Next year will be the phase-out stage.

It will be the next step towards auctions becoming the way to sell houses!

Local Sales and Pricing

They update the previous month’s stats on the first of month, so here’s the latest for Carmel Valley, Carlsbad, and Encinitas:


Encinitas had an crazy price bump in June, but toss that stat out and the pricing looks fairly steady. There just aren’t enough homes for sale that deserve the money. Until sales bottom, having the pricing hold up will be a challenge, especially with sellers enjoying the unnaturally high appreciation rate over the last 3+ years – if they have to give back 5% to 10% to make a deal, it won’t hurt them much.

NAR Lawsuit – The Aftermath, Part 1

A federal jury today agreed with the plaintiffs that organizations such as Keller Williams, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices of America, and the National Association of Realtors had violated the law by conspiring to inflate commission rates.

Their attorney then filed an additional lawsuit against the other large brokerages, including Compass.

There’s enough for several blog posts here! Let’s begin with the first problem:

In this trial, the defense was pathetic, and the realtors will likely lose in appeals court too.

The defense attorneys rode in cocky and notched it up on the first day when they said the plaintiffs have the burden of proving their case…..and the defense may not even call a witness! Then when they did call a witness, it just had to be the CEO of NAR, Bob Goldberg, whose arrogance may be unrivaled.

He offered the following:

The CEO returned to the stand on Tuesday to face cross-examination from plaintiff party’s attorney Michael Ketchmark. During the cross, Ketchmark tried making an analogy — not for the first time — between the allegations facing NAR and the hypothetical of chicken producers inflating prices.

Goldberg argued the analogy was “apples and oranges” because real estate agents offer a service, not a product. When Ketchmark continued his analogy and pressed Goldberg on whether he needs an explanation of antitrust law, the CEO responded, “No. I need you to explain to me the chicken law.”

What the defense never considered was that the jury came into the courthouse with the same biases/prejudices that every American has considered – realtors are overpaid, and it’s a racket.  The industry never bothers to educate the public, so you can’t blame the jurors or anyone else for thinking that we need to be taken down a notch…or two.

When Bob made his crack about chicken law it had to make every juror hate him even more. Sure, it was kinda funny but this is no time for wisecracks when billions of your members’ money is on the line!

Gary Keller is a nice guy but his soft-spoken testimony didn’t sway the jury – and you can blame his defense attorneys for asking questions that were too lame and indifferent:

Keller’s was the final testimony in the defense’s bid to argue that broker commissions vary and are not set by real estate companies.

Keller denied in his testimony that a “standard commission” existed, saying agents are responsible for setting their own commissions. He said the company had no say in the commissions charged by agents.

While it is true that realtors are independent contractors and each sets their own commission rates, having a gazillionaire state it towards the end of the trial isn’t going to persuade anyone.

The two most important facts of the case were never brought up:

  1. The sellers should have the right to pay a reward, or bounty, to persuade agents to sell their house.
  2. Every seller pays the listing brokerage the full commission, and it’s the LISTING AGENT who decides how much commission the buyer-agent gets.

For the defense to not bring up these points just shows how arrogant and unprepared they were for this trial. The NAR president didn’t exactly give us a reason to think it might be different next time:

This matter is not close to being final. We will appeal the liability finding because we stand by the fact that NAR rules serve the best interests of consumers, support market-driven pricing and advance business competition. We remain optimistic we will ultimately prevail.  In the interim, we will ask the court to reduce the damages awarded by the jury.

In court, NAR presented evidence that consumers are better off and business competition is able to thrive because of our rules and how well local MLS broker marketplaces function. In fact, the NAR cooperative compensation rule for local MLS broker marketplaces ensures efficient, transparent and equitable marketplaces where sellers can sell their home for more and have their home seen by more buyers while buyers have more choices of homes and can afford representation. NAR also presented that REALTORS® are everyday working Americans who are experts at helping consumers navigate the complexities of home purchases and advocates for fair housing and wealth building for all.

Is that all you got? With leaders like this, any future trials will be decided in the same 2.5 hours that it took the jury to decide this one. The only hope is that Compass will hire our own attorneys, and they call on a part-time blogger from San Diego to testify!

Plaintiffs Win

Many think this won’t change much about commissions. They might have to go higher to pay for the damages!

A jury in Kansas City, Missouri, sided with a group of homeseller-plaintiffs Tuesday, ruling that real estate’s biggest names participated in a conspiracy that helped keep agent commissions inflated.

The jury found that all of the defendants, which include the National Association of Realtors as well as franchisors such as Keller Williams and Berkshire Hathaway participated in the conspiracy.

The jury awarded $1,785,310,872 in damages, which will be automatically trebled to $5.356 billion.

Just minutes after jurors sided with the homeseller-plaintiffs in the Sitzer | Burnett trial Tuesday, their attorney Michael Ketchmark filed a new class action lawsuit against another group of big-name real estate industry entites.

Ketchmark filed the suit on behalf of three new homesellers, who like those in Sitzer | Burnett claim to have suffered from a real estate industry conspiracy that inflated agent commissions. In this case, however, the suit names as defendants Compass, eXp World Holdings, Redfin, Weichert Realtors, United Real Estate, Howard Hanna, and Douglas Elliman. The suit also names the National Association of Realtors as a defendant.

Ketchmark said, “Our hope and goal is to free the grip they have on homesellers across the United States. It’s time that the free market and the internet is allowed to do its work and to bring the savings to homeowners that they’re so entitled to when they sell their homes.” 

“This is an earthquake,” said Jason Haber, a real estate agent with Compass who has been one of the most outspoken critics of N.A.R. in recent months. “I’m disappointed in today’s verdict and I’m even more disappointed in N.A.R. This was their Super Bowl and World Series rolled up into one and not even Taylor Swift could have saved them.”

Mr. Haber, who created a grass-roots organization demanding the resignation of N.A.R.’s top leadership after the sexual harassment allegations came to light this summer, said he believed that there was no conspiracy when it comes to agent commissions, and that N.A.R. had let down its members by failing to present a stronger defense in court.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, August

The local index increased to 419.08 in August, and is angling towards the all-time high of 427.80 reached in May, 2022. Even if the increases slow the rest of the year, we should get back into record territory by the time the 2024 home-selling season begins.

The San Diego index dropped 11% between May, 2022 and January, 2023, and has risen 11% since!

SW Carlsbad Entry Level

This was listed for $1,438,000 at the beginning of March, but no takers. They lowered the price to $1,398,000 after two weeks, and then moved down to $1,349,000 a week later (which usually means they weren’t getting any traffic, let alone offers). By the end of May, it still wasn’t sold.

They took the summer off, and relisted with the same agents on September 7th for $1,328,000.

It went pending four days later, and closed for full price.

Be sure to check the listing history on every ‘new’ listing!

Inventory Watch

How does the current inventory of homes for sale compare to previous counts?

NSDCC Active Inventory, Last Week of October:

2016: 962

2017: 805

2018: 1,000

2019: 909

2020: 590

2021: 277

2022: 399

2023: 371

They say you can’t predict the future, but let’s give it a go.

The NSDCC inventory at the end of next October will be between 300-1,000. Based on higher rates and recent history, there will probably be around 400 houses for sale again.

The rates aren’t going to change. The ultra-low inventory isn’t going to change, especially if potential home sellers hear that the market is “bad” for selling. There will be occasional deals, just like this year but you’ll have to dig them out – they won’t be lying around.

Next year is going to look a lot like this year.

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