Listing-Agent Review of Seller Disclosures

This topic came up in my 45 hours of continuing education, and Donna agreed that rarely do listing agents comment on their seller’s disclosures – do they even read them? A focal point as we transition into single agency:

To complete the disclosure process, the seller’s agent filters property information provided by the seller before it is provided to the prospective buyer.

Accordingly, all property information received from the seller is reviewed by the seller’s agent for inaccuracies or untruthful statements known or suspected to exist by the seller’s agent. Corrections or contrary statements by the seller’s agent necessary to set the information straight are entered on the disclosure forms before the information is used to market the property and induce prospective buyers to purchase, collectively referred to as fair and honest dealings.

The extent to which disclosures about the physical condition of the property are to be made is best demonstrated by what the seller’s agent is not obligated to provide. Everything else adversely affecting value and known to the seller’s agent – material facts – are to be brought to the attention of prospective buyers as a matter of law.

As a minimum effort to be made before handing a prospective buyer information received from the seller, the seller’s agent is to:

  • review the information received from the seller;
  • include comments about the agent’s actual knowledge and observations made during their visual inspection of the property which expose the inaccuracies or omissions in the seller’s statements; and
  • identify the source of the information as the seller.

Rate Buydowns

People might think that 8% mortgage rates will kill the real estate market, but they are one more thing that can be fixed with money.

Two popular strategies to lower the mortgage rate:

30-year fixed rate buydown: Paying one point, or 1% of the loan amount will lower the rate by 1/4%. It would take a few points paid to make a significant difference, and the home seller can contribute too. On a $2,000,000 purchase with 25% down and a loan amount of $1,500,000, the monthly payment is $11,006 at the 8% rate. But the payment can be permanently reduced to $9,358 per month (6.375%) by paying six points, for a savings of $1,648 per month! Hopefully the seller will contribute some or all of the fee.

2-1 temporary rate buydown: Paying 2.4 points will lower the mortgage rate by 2% in the first year, and then by 1% in the second year. With the same $1,500,000 loan, here’s how the 2-1 buydown looks:

In both of those examples, you have a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage. If you are more of a gambler and don’t want to pay any points, the other alternative is to get the 3/1 ARM that has a fixed rate of 6.25% for three years, and then the rate adjusts annually for the remaining 27 years.

Or you can buy a Toll Brothers home:

A side note on Toll Brothers. Their Del Mar Mesa tract where construction was getting underway? They did sell all of those homes.

California Exodus

The number of former Californians who became Texans dropped slightly last year, but some of that slack was picked up by Arizona and Florida, which saw their tallies of ex-Californians grow, according to new state-to-state migration figures released Thursday.

The flow of Californians to Texas has marked the largest state-to-state movement in the U.S. for the past two years, but it decreased from more than 107,000 people in 2021 to more than 102,000 residents in 2022, as real estate in Texas’ largest cities has grown more expensive. In Florida, meanwhile, the number of former Californians went from more than 37,000 people in 2021 to more than 50,000 people in 2022, and in Arizona, it went from more than 69,000 people to 74,000 people during that same time period.

California had a net loss of more than 113,000 residents last year, a number that would have been much higher if not for people moving to the state from other countries and a natural increase from more births than deaths. More than 343,000 people left California for another state last year, the highest number of any U.S. state.

Housing costs are driving decisions to move out of California, which with 39 million residents is the most populous U.S. state, according to Manuel Pastor, a professor of sociology and American Studies & Ethnicity at the University of Southern California.

“We are losing younger folks, and I think we will see people continuing to migrate where housing costs are lower,” Pastor said. “There are good jobs in California, but housing is incredibly expensive. It hurts young families, and it hurts immigrant families.”

(more…)

Tour of Fenway Park

Natalie’s last show with Karol G was in Boston and because it could be the last show ever, we felt compelled as committed parents and fans to attend. This was my first trip to Boston and because many of my best friends were born and raised there, and because it was Natalie’s birthday, we had to tour Fenway:

Tenant Protection Act

In 2019, the state legislature passed a bill that had two profound impacts:

  1. It prohibits an owner of residential real property from terminating a tenancy without just cause.
  2. It also prohibits an owner of residential real property from, over the course of any 12-month period, increasing the gross rental rate for a dwelling or unit more than 5% plus the percentage change in the cost of living, as defined, or 10%, whichever is lower, of the lowest gross rental rate charged for the immediately preceding 12 months, subject to specified conditions.

As you probably suspected from the title, these are more of the tenant-friendly laws that prevail in California! If this is the last straw and you’re ready to sell your rental property, contact me today!

Click here for the full details of the bill:

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200AB1482

0% Commissions

Currently, every listing agent is required to offer some sort of buyer-agent compensation on the MLS. Zillow and Redfin publish those commission amounts on every listing now, so they are all out in the open.

Today, there are 79 homes for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad in the $2,000,000-$3,000,000 price range. Thirty percent of those listing agents are offering less than 2.5% commissions to the buyer-agents.

Outsiders who see that will assume that commissions are finally starting to drop, after all these years.

But the vast majority of those listing agents are probably still taking 5% to 6% commissions, and offering 2% or less to the buyer-agent (and more for themselves).

If the listing agent is supremely talented and brings special skills to the transaction, then it would be understandable. But I’ve been a buyer-agent on listings that are offering less than 2.5%, and they’re not different. Virtually every listing agent still practices the Three-P marketing plan: Put a sign out front, Put it in the MLS, and Pray.

There are hundreds of multiple listing services in America. So far, only a few have removed the requirement of offering a buyer-agent commission.  But the NAR lawsuits are going to change that, and soon every MLS will permit 0% commissions to be offered to the buyer-agents (hoping buyers will pay their own agent).

The listing agents who have little or no repsect for the buyer-agents will keep offering them lower and lower commissions. Eventually, their rate will get down to zero or close.

Will sellers figure it out?

Sellers focus on the total commission. They don’t do enough transactions to know that the amount the listing agent pays to the buyer-agent will impact the sale. It is a bounty offered to encourage the sale of the house, and when market conditions are soggy, it is better to pay buyer-agents more commission, not less.

In the lawsuits, they will discuss agents steering their buyers to homes that pay higher commissions. It’s why the search portals publish the commission rates now so buyers can track whether their agent shows any bias based on the commission rate being offered.

It’s why the industry will be racing towards 0% commissions offered to the buyer-agents.

Eventually, the DOJ will probably step in and insist that ALL sellers pay 0% commission to the buyer-agents to insure there is no chance of steering. Instead, listing agents will just offer them spiffs under the table in a softer market or when the house is ‘unique’.

Until then, the listing-agent teams are going to keep offering lower and lower commissions (if any) to the buyer-agents – who will then try to get their buyers to pay them something….anything!

At the same time, the listing agents will be encouraging buyers to avoid paying a buyer-agent commission altogether by coming direct to the listing agent instead. Their in-house assistant-agents will attempt a faux representation of the buyer but it will just be a novice clerk who processes their paperwork.

Boom! The seller didn’t have to pay a buyer-agent commission – making these lawsuits worth it – and instead the listing agent keeps the whole commission. If buyer-agents can somehow wedge themselves into the deal, then great, but will the buyer pay them too, when it doesn’t seem necessary?

Mark my words – this will be standard fare in the next year or two.

More Hopium

Morgan Stanley analysts previously expected national home prices to fall 4% in 2023, as the housing market continued to crater, and reaffirmed their pessimistic forecast in April of this year. But the analysts recently changed their tune in a big way: They now say housing prices could rise up to 5% for the year.

The reversal, made in a research note earlier this week, comes as mortgage rates continue to rise, hitting 8%, the highest level since 2000. The increase has had a profound impact on the housing market, but not necessarily as many people had expected.

For one thing, it’s keeping the supply of homes for sale tight largely due to the lock-in effect, which prevents homeowners that have lower mortgage rates from selling because it would require buying a new home at a much higher interest rate. That’s helping to prop up the market by creating big demand for the relatively few houses for sale, further deteriorating affordability.

Morgan Stanley isn’t the only financial institution to suggest home prices will likely increase. Roger Ashworth, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, recently wrote that despite affordability being worse than in the 2008 housing crash, housing itself is in a much stronger position, largely due to a low supply of homes for sale.

“Absent any negative shocks to the broader economy that would either boost excess supply of homes on the market or fuel an uptick in unemployment, we continue to expect home prices to rise at a slow pace,” he wrote. And he predicts that by the end of this year, home prices will rise 1.8%, with a 3.5% increase by the end of 2024.

https://fortune.com/2023/10/19/high-housing-prices-home-market-affordability-morgan-stanley-forecast-2023/

NAR Lawsuits

People are asking about the NAR lawsuits – hat tip to Susie, Gerry, and Carl!

The lawsuit that began this week contends that realtors force sellers to pay a commission to the buyer’s agent. Two defendants, ReMax and Anywhere (Coldwell Banker, Sotheby’s, etc.) have already come to settlement agreements, though they haven’t been approved by the judge yet. The other two brokerages, Keller Williams and Berkshire Hathaway, plus the National Association of Realtors are the remaining defendants. Their attorney started the proceedings by declaring that the plaintiffs have the burden of proof, and the defense may not call a witness. It is that type of arrogance that got them into this mess!

A summary:

In their trial brief, the plaintiffs in the suit allege that NAR’s Participation Rule, which they refer to as the Mandatory Offer of Compensation Rule, is “a market-shaping and distorting rule” that stifles innovation and competition.

“The Rule requires every home seller to offer payment to the broker representing their adversary, the buyer, even though the buyer’s broker is retained by and owes a fiduciary obligation to the buyer (who may be told, falsely, that the services of the buyer broker are “free”),” the brief said.

They argue that the current practice of the seller’s agent splitting their commission with the buyer’s agent, who typically negotiates for a lower selling price for their client, works against the seller’s interest and only exists due to the alleged anticompetitive rules. The plaintiffs also note that the NAR rule in question requires a blanket offer of compensation for the buyer’s broker regardless of their experience or the level of service they provide the buyers with, and that the compensation offer was only visible to the buyer’s agent and not their clients, until very recently.

“This artificial and severed market structure created by Defendants’ conduct deters price-cutting competition and innovation, resulting in inflated commissions,” the brief states. “The Mandatory NAR Rules impede the ability of a free market to function in the residential real estate industry, and the plain purpose and/or effect of the Rules is to raise, inflate, or stabilize commission rates.”

In the brief, the plaintiffs claim that the other defendants in the suit colluded with NAR to enforce this and other NAR and MLS policies.

“The Corporate Defendants compel compliance in multiple ways, including by requiring their franchisees, subsidiaries, brokers, and agents become members of NAR; writing the NAR Rules into their own corporate documents; and requiring that their franchisees, subsidiaries, brokers, and agents become members of and participants in the Subject MLSs — entities that compel NAR membership and adopt the mandatory NAR Rules,” the brief reads.

The brief notes that Craig Schulman, the director of Berkeley Research Group and professor of economic data analytics at Texas A&M University, will be an expert witness for the plaintiffs at trial. In studying transaction data from NAR and other parties, the brief states the Schulman has concluded that “(a) the NAR Rules have anticompetitive effects; (b) the NAR Rules caused a seller to pay his adversary (buyer broker) and that, but for the conspiracy, a seller would not pay the buyer broker; and (c) all class members were impacted.”

The brief also notes that Schulman will testify that NAR’s rules have stabilized commission rates at an “anticompetitive level,” noting that commissions have remained at 6% for several years.

Unfortunately, none of the reality of what happens on the street will get introduced during the trial. Instead, it will be ivory-tower guys hoping to persuade the judge and jury (one of which has to breast-feed her infant every 1.5 hours) that the whole commission thing is out of control and someone is to blame.

But the defendants have a good point:

NAR also argued that the plaintiffs do not have the ability to sue for damages —which some believe could reach as much as $4 billion in this case — because under federal and Missouri antitrust law, only “direct purchasers” can be allowed to sue and the plaintiffs have not bought anything directly from NAR or the other defendants.

“And, according to those same Model Rules and listing agreements, Plaintiffs did not directly pay cooperating agents, NAR, or the other Defendants; sellers only directly pay their listing agents and only directly receive services from their own agents,” the brief states. “Therefore, at best, Plaintiffs might claim that they paid their listing agents (who are not parties to this case) who, only then, paid Defendants. But such an indirect claim is prohibited by Supreme Court case law.”

Home sellers pay the full commission to the listing brokerage.  It is the listing agent who declares in the original listing agreement of how much of the full commission they are willing to pay the buyer’s agent. None of this will be discussed during this trial, but it’s the most important part!

The plaintiffs should be suing the individual listing agents – good luck with that!

In the end, the defendants might be found guilty, and they will appeal for years – the American way! Or it’s more likely that they will settle in the next couple of weeks because the ReMax and Anywhere settlements were only $55 million and $85 million, which is pennies.

Part of the settlement package will be that the MLS will no longer be obligated to display ANY commission to be paid to the buyer’s agent. It will cause two things to happen:

  1. MORE steering by the buyer-agents to the homes that are paying a healthy commission (bounty).
  2. Buyer-agents trying to convince their buyers to pay them the buyer-side commission.

Kayla is faced with this dilemma in New York City. Did you know that 2/3’s of the population in Manhattan are renters? It’s a big business! But the listing agents don’t offer a tenant-agent commission, which means Kayla has to get paid by her tenants upon finding them new home to rent.

The results:

  1. She has had the landlord’s listing agent pull aside her potential tenant and tell her to ditch Kayla and save the money, and go through him directly. Apparently they aren’t concerned with their reputations!
  2. She has also had her potential tenants be reluctant to sign an tenant-agent agreement because they see apartments being advertised by the listing agents. They want to reserve the right to go direct to the listing agent, and usually they do. As a result, Kayla only works with those who appreciate her advice.

The idea that home buyers will hire and pay their own buyer-agents is a great idea…..in theory.

The reality is that buyers will go direct to the listing agents when they see an interesting new home for sale. Those listing agents will be advertising to those buyers directly, and flat-out encourage them to get a better deal by going through them.

The buyer-agent is a dead man walking.

Eighterater

How are those expert opinions doing?

Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, was acknowledged as the best forecaster in America last year when he was honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting.

The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc. “It is a real honor for the Fannie Mae forecast team to be recognized with the Lawrence R. Klein Award,” said Duncan.

“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years,” says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. “I commend Doug Duncan and his team at Fannie Mae for their remarkable predictions during a period of extensive market fluctuation and instability.”

He predicted we’d be at 4.4% today – the reality:

 

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